ITALY › SERIE A
17.05.2026 10:00
Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani
Referee: F. Fourneau
Pisa
Match Timeline
Napoli
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
21'
S. McTominay · Assist: R. Hojlund
Napoli
⚽
27'
A. Rrahmani · Assist: E. Elmas
Napoli
🟨
53'
Arturo Calabresi
Pisa
🟨
53'
Eljif Elmas
Napoli
🔄
59'
E. Elmas ↔ K. De Bruyne
Napoli
🔄
59'
A. Buongiorno ↔ M. Olivera
Napoli
🔄
60'
F. Stojilkovic ↔ H. Meister
Pisa
🔄
60'
E. Akinsanmiro ↔ G. Piccinini
Pisa
🔄
70'
M. Leris ↔ J. Cuadrado
Pisa
🔄
70'
A. Calabresi ↔ I. Toure
Pisa
🔄
71'
S. Moreo ↔ I. Vural
Pisa
🟨
78'
Antonio Caracciolo
Pisa
🟨
78'
Alisson Santos
Napoli
🔄
79'
L. Spinazzola ↔ M. Gutierrez
Napoli
🔄
80'
Alisson Santos ↔ A. Vergara
Napoli
🔄
88'
G. Di Lorenzo ↔ P. Mazzocchi
Napoli
⚽
90'
R. Hojlund · Assist: P. Mazzocchi
Napoli

Pisa vs Napoli Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 80.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 35.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 25.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
80.7%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
35.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
25.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Pisa Win 15.1%
Draw 4.2%
Napoli Win 80.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Pisa0.84
Napoli1.57
Recent Form (Last 5)
Pisa Pisa
WWDLW
25 GF / 67 GA
Napoli Napoli
WLDWL
69 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
0.66
Average Goals Scored
1.44
1.76
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
15
BTTS Yes
24
18
Over 2.5
22
2.74
Shots on Goal
4.52

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Pisa Pisa 38 matches
Napoli Napoli 48 matches
Pisa Statistic Napoli
2 Wins 25
13 Draws 11
23 Losses 12
25 Goals For 69
67 Goals Against 53
0.66 Avg Goals Scored 1.44
1.76 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
15 BTTS Yes 24
23 Over 1.5 36
18 Over 2.5 22
12 Over 3.5 12
6 Clean Sheets 17
22 Failed To Score 11
2.74 Shots On Goal 4.52
9.5 Total Shots 12.85
3.58 Corners 5.67
40.8% Ball Possession 56.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Napoli's more proactive style and Pisa's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Napoli. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Napoli carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 70 points while Pisa sit 20 on 18, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Pisa have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Pisa Analysis

Pisa approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 20 with 18 points from 36 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 12 draws, and 22 losses, together with goals at 25:66, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through S. Moreo (6 goals), M. Nzola (4 goals), Antonio Caracciolo (3 goals), with creative support from M. Leris (3 assists), Matteo Tramoni (2 assists), S. Angori (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Napoli Analysis

Napoli arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 70 points after 36 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 21 wins, 7 draws, and 8 losses, while the 54:36 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on R. Hojlund (10 goals), S. McTominay (9 goals), K. De Bruyne (5 goals), with creative support from M. Politano (5 assists), R. Hojlund (4 assists), S. McTominay (3 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Pisa won 0 times, Napoli won 2 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:6 from Pisa's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.8%)
Predicted formations: Pisa 3-4-2-1 / Napoli 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Pisa 5, Napoli 3
H2H summary: Pisa wins 0, draws 0, Napoli wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20
Pisa Home
38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B