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BRAZIL › SERIE A
11.10.2026 20:30
Nubank Parque
Referee: Anderson Daronco
Palmeiras
Match Timeline
Corinthians
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
9'
Jhon Arias
Palmeiras
🟨
15'
Raniele
Corinthians
⚽
16'
Alexander Barboza · Assist: Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
⚽
45+1'
Agustín Giay · Assist: Jhon Arias
Palmeiras
⚽
46'
Matheus Bidu
Palmeiras
🟨
48'
Memphis Depay
Corinthians
🟨
49'
Agustín Giay
Palmeiras
⚽
51'
Agustín Giay
Palmeiras
🔄
57'
Breno Bidon ↔ Vitinho
Corinthians
🔄
57'
André Carrillo ↔ Allan
Corinthians
🟨
59'
Gabriel Paulista
Corinthians
🟨
65'
Vitinho
Corinthians
🔄
69'
Vitor Roque ↔ Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
🔄
69'
Lucas Evangelista ↔ Emiliano Martínez
Palmeiras
🔄
69'
José Manuel López ↔ Mauricio
Palmeiras
🔄
69'
Yuri Alberto ↔ Pedro Raul
Corinthians
🔄
69'
André Luiz ↔ André Ramalho
Corinthians
🟨
72'
Gustavo Gómez
Palmeiras
🔄
77'
Ramón Sosa ↔ Paulinho
Palmeiras
⚽
81'
Paulinho
Palmeiras
🔄
83'
Gustavo Gómez ↔ Bruno Fuchs
Palmeiras
🔄
83'
Raniele ↔ Dieguinho
Corinthians
⚽
90+1'
Gustavo Henrique · Assist: Vitinho
Corinthians

Palmeiras vs Corinthians Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
58.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 73%
Draw 4%
Corinthians Win 23%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.38
Corinthians0.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
W D L W W
6 GF / 3 GA
Corinthians Corinthians
L L L L D
4 GF / 9 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
1.03
0.77
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
22
BTTS Yes
20
17
Over 2.5
13
5.28
Shots on Goal
3.87

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 39 matches
Corinthians Corinthians 40 matches
Palmeiras Statistic Corinthians
22 Wins 12
12 Draws 13
5 Losses 15
63 Goals For 41
30 Goals Against 41
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 1.03
0.77 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
22 BTTS Yes 20
26 Over 1.5 28
17 Over 2.5 13
9 Over 3.5 5
16 Clean Sheets 15
5 Failed To Score 10
5.28 Shots On Goal 3.87
16.08 Total Shots 12.13
6.15 Corners 4.85
53.5% Ball Possession 55.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Palmeiras's more proactive style and Corinthians's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Corinthians arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palmeiras expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Corinthians in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Corinthians having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Palmeiras arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 57 points compared to Corinthians in 14 on 32, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Corinthians.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 57 points from 28 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 16 wins, 9 draws, and 3 losses, while the 47:21 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on J. López (7 goals), Maurício (6 goals), Vitor Roque (5 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (10 assists), J. López (3 assists), Allan (3 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 9 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Corinthians Analysis

Corinthians approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 32 points from 28 matches. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 8 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 29:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Their attacking burden often falls on R. Garro (3 goals), Yuri Alberto (3 goals), Andre (3 goals), with creative support from R. Garro (6 assists), Yuri Alberto (2 assists), Andre (2 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 4 times, Corinthians won 4 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:13 from Palmeiras's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 3-4-2-1 / Corinthians 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Palmeiras 2, Corinthians 8
H2H summary: Palmeiras wins 4, draws 7, Corinthians wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 20 7 4 61:25 36 67
W W D W W
2 31 19 9 3 54:22 32 66
W W W D W
3 32 16 6 10 51:46 5 54
W W L W W
4 31 15 8 8 49:37 12 53
L W D W D
5 31 14 9 8 49:39 10 51
L L W W L
6 31 14 8 9 42:35 7 50
W W D W D
7 31 13 10 8 44:39 5 49
L W L L W
8 31 12 9 10 48:46 2 45
W L D W W
9 31 12 6 13 36:35 1 42
W W L L W
10 31 11 8 12 39:36 3 41
D W D L L
11 31 10 9 12 44:48 -4 39
W D L L W
12 31 10 9 12 38:49 -11 39
L D L L D
13 31 10 7 14 34:45 -11 37
D L W L D
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 30 9 8 13 36:43 -7 35
L D W W W
16 31 8 9 14 32:39 -7 33
D L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 31 7 10 14 34:44 -10 31
L D D D L
19 32 5 11 16 34:50 -16 26
L D D D L
20 30 3 9 18 30:62 -32 18
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B