BRAZIL SERIE A
19.04.2026 21:30
Allianz Parque
Referee: F. Fernandes de Lima
Palmeiras
Match Timeline
Atletico Paranaense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
15'
G. Gomez
Palmeiras
🟨
23'
Camilo Portilla
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
30'
Murilo
Palmeiras
🟨
42'
Jadson
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
47'
Murilo
Palmeiras
🟥
47'
Murilo
Palmeiras
🔄
51'
J. Lopez ↔ Bruno Fuchs
Palmeiras
🔄
53'
Jadson ↔ Joao Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
56'
João Cruz
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
59'
J. Portilla ↔ B. Zapelli
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
60'
Dudu Kogitzki ↔ Chiqueti
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
63'
Lucas Esquivel
Atletico Paranaense
🟨
71'
Ramón Sosa
Palmeiras
🔄
72'
Andreas Pereira ↔ Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
🔄
80'
F. Aguirre ↔ Leo
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
80'
Luiz Gustavo ↔ Renan Peixoto
Atletico Paranaense
🔄
83'
J. Arias ↔ Felipe Anderson
Palmeiras
🔄
83'
R. Sosa ↔ Vitor Roque
Palmeiras
🔄
83'
Allan Elias ↔ Benedetti
Palmeiras
VAR
86'
Kevin Viveros
Atletico Paranaense

Palmeiras vs Atletico Paranaense Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 63.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.8%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
63.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.4%
-
Probability Distribution
Palmeiras Win 79.8%
Draw 0%
Atletico Paranaense Win 20.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Palmeiras1.58
Atletico Paranaense1.3
Recent Form (Last 5)
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WWDLW
24 GF / 12 GA
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense
WLDWL
17 GF / 13 GA
Key Stats
1.85
Average Goals Scored
1.55
0.92
Average Goals Conceded
1.18
10
BTTS Yes
6
9
Over 2.5
6
5.15
Shots on Goal
4.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Palmeiras Palmeiras 13 matches
Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 11 matches
Palmeiras Statistic Atletico Paranaense
9 Wins 6
3 Draws 1
1 Losses 4
24 Goals For 17
12 Goals Against 13
1.85 Avg Goals Scored 1.55
0.92 Avg Goals Conceded 1.18
10 BTTS Yes 6
10 Over 1.5 9
9 Over 2.5 6
3 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 2
5.15 Shots On Goal 4.45
14.15 Total Shots 11
5.77 Corners 4.64
50.3% Ball Possession 48.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Palmeiras appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Atletico Paranaense. Palmeiras come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Palmeiras arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 1 with 26 points compared to Atletico Paranaense in 6 on 19, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atletico Paranaense. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Palmeiras expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Atletico Paranaense in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Atletico Paranaense having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Palmeiras Analysis

Palmeiras approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 26 points after 11 outings. With 8 wins, 2 draws, and 1 defeats plus a goal balance of 21:10, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Allan Elias (3 goals), J. Arias (3 goals), J. Lopez (3 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (8 assists), J. Lopez (3 assists), Marlon Freitas (1 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. At home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. Although they are without Paulinho, J. Piquerez, Jefte, Marlon Freitas, that could reduce some of their usual creative supply in attacking areas.

Atletico Paranaense Analysis

Atletico Paranaense sit 6 with 19 points after 11 league matches. Their overall return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 17:13 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by K. Viveros (6 goals), S. Mendoza (4 goals), Julimar (3 goals), with creative support from L. Esquivel (3 assists), G. Benavidez (3 assists), Joao Cruz (2 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with C. Teran, Chiqueti unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Palmeiras won 8 times, Atletico Paranaense won 3 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:13 from Palmeiras's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Palmeiras 4-2-3-1 / Atletico Paranaense 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Palmeiras 5, Atletico Paranaense 6
H2H summary: Palmeiras wins 8, draws 4, Atletico Paranaense wins 3

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 25 15 7 3 45:21 24 52
D W L D W
2 24 14 6 4 48:21 27 48
W L W W D
3 25 13 6 6 37:25 12 45
D W D W D
4 25 11 9 5 39:32 7 42
D W W D D
5 25 10 10 5 37:30 7 40
W W D D D
6 25 11 6 8 35:36 -1 39
L W W W W
7 25 10 7 8 33:33 0 37
W W D W L
8 24 10 6 8 32:28 4 36
W D W D W
9 24 10 5 9 29:25 4 35
L W D L D
10 25 8 8 9 26:25 1 32
L L L W D
11 24 8 6 10 29:28 1 30
W L D L D
12 24 8 6 10 37:40 -3 30
L L L D W
13 25 8 5 12 24:37 -13 29
L L W L L
14 24 7 8 9 34:36 -2 29
W D W L D
15 24 7 7 10 27:32 -5 28
W L L W D
16 24 6 7 11 27:37 -10 25
D D L L W
17 24 6 7 11 27:39 -12 25
W L L D D
18 25 5 10 10 26:31 -5 25
L D D D D
19 25 5 8 12 30:42 -12 23
L L D D L
20 24 2 8 14 25:49 -24 14
L W D L D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B