COLOMBIA PRIMERA B
05.09.2026 00:30
Estadio Daniel Villa Zapata
Orsomarso
Match Timeline
Real Cartagena
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
12'
F. Montero
Real Cartagena
🟨
35'
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
🟨
43'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🔄
46'
R. Lora ↔ M. Balanta
Real Cartagena
🟨
54'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🟨
55'
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
🟨
56'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🔄
63'
R. A. Benitez Hernandez ↔ J. Munoz
Orsomarso
🔄
66'
J. Rios ↔ D. Pino
Real Cartagena
🔄
70'
S. Arrechea ↔ S. Martinez
Orsomarso
🟨
71'
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
🔄
77'
B. Campaz ↔ A. Ruiz
Orsomarso
🔄
77'
J. Contreras ↔ Zarante
Orsomarso
🔄
81'
E. Lopez ↔ A. Escobar
Real Cartagena
🟨
83'
Orsomarso
Orsomarso
🟨
90'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🟨
90+1'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🟨
90+5'
Real Cartagena
Real Cartagena
🔄
90+1'
J. Barrera ↔ M. Manotas
Real Cartagena

Orsomarso vs Real Cartagena Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 51.8%
Odds 2.40
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 45.9%
Odds 2.23
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
51.8%
2.40
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.83
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
45.9%
2.23
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.49
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
11.00
Probability Distribution
Orsomarso Win 36.5%
Draw 11.7%
Real Cartagena Win 51.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orsomarso0.99
Real Cartagena1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orsomarso Orsomarso
WWDLW
17 GF / 18 GA
Real Cartagena Real Cartagena
WLDWL
48 GF / 33 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.66
0.95
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
6
BTTS Yes
17
5
Over 2.5
15
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orsomarso Orsomarso 19 matches
Real Cartagena Real Cartagena 29 matches
Orsomarso Statistic Real Cartagena
6 Wins 14
7 Draws 8
6 Losses 7
17 Goals For 48
18 Goals Against 33
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.66
0.95 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
6 BTTS Yes 17
11 Over 1.5 23
5 Over 2.5 15
3 Over 3.5 8
8 Clean Sheets 8
8 Failed To Score 6
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Real Cartagena's more proactive style and Orsomarso's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Real Cartagena. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Real Cartagena carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 50 points while Orsomarso sit 11 on 25, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Real Cartagena having the stronger overall control.

Orsomarso Analysis

Orsomarso sit 11 with 25 points after 19 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 7 draws, and 6 losses, while the 17:18 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, a split that suggests an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Real Cartagena Analysis

Real Cartagena come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 50 points after 28 matches. They have recorded 14 wins, 8 draws, and 6 losses, with a 48:30 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, the split of - wins, - draws, and - losses supports the view of an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Orsomarso won 3 times, Real Cartagena won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:24 from Orsomarso's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.3%)
H2H summary: Orsomarso wins 3, draws 3, Real Cartagena wins 9

Standings

Primera B: Tabla Anual
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 15 8 8 50:35 15 53
L W L W W
2 29 15 8 6 38:27 11 53
W L L L W
3 29 14 9 6 30:18 12 51
L D D W W
4 30 14 8 8 40:28 12 50
D D L L L
5 29 14 6 9 40:28 12 48
W L L W L
6 29 10 8 11 27:25 2 38
D W L W W
7 23 9 9 5 23:16 7 36
W D W W L
8 24 9 7 8 29:29 0 34
L W W W L
9 29 9 7 13 35:39 -4 34
L L W W L
10 29 8 10 11 23:30 -7 34
D L L W L
11 23 6 9 8 27:27 0 27
W W W L D
12 22 6 7 9 17:23 -6 25
L L L W D
13 23 5 9 9 25:30 -5 24
W W D L L
14 23 5 8 10 24:32 -8 23
W W W W L
15 24 4 7 13 15:39 -24 19
L D L L L
16 23 3 8 12 20:37 -17 17
L D W W D
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)