🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
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Exploria Stadium

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 51.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
51.2%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
78.9%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Orlando City SC Win 51.2%
Draw 12.4%
San Diego Win 36.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Orlando City SC1.62
San Diego2.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Orlando City SC Orlando City SC
WWDLW
44 GF / 64 GA
San Diego San Diego
WLDWL
49 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.69
Average Goals Scored
1.81
2.46
Average Goals Conceded
1.52
19
BTTS Yes
14
20
Over 2.5
17
4.57
Shots on Goal
4.42

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Orlando City SC Orlando City SC 26 matches
San Diego San Diego 27 matches
Orlando City SC Statistic San Diego
8 Wins 11
5 Draws 6
13 Losses 10
44 Goals For 49
64 Goals Against 41
1.69 Avg Goals Scored 1.81
2.46 Avg Goals Conceded 1.52
19 BTTS Yes 14
24 Over 1.5 21
20 Over 2.5 17
15 Over 3.5 13
2 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 5
4.57 Shots On Goal 4.42
11.14 Total Shots 11.85
3.43 Corners 4.77
45.2% Ball Possession 58.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with San Diego's more proactive style and Orlando City SC's more cautious structure suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward San Diego. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Orlando City SC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and San Diego in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward San Diego having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Orlando City SC Analysis

Orlando City SC sit 9 with 24 points after 21 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 3 draws, and 11 losses, while the 34:51 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Martín Ojeda (9 goals), Tyrese Spicer (2 goals), Griffin Dorsey (2 goals), with creative support from Justin Ellis (3 assists), Adrián Marín (3 assists), Eduard Atuesta (3 assists), and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

San Diego Analysis

San Diego are currently 11 in the standings with 27 points from 21 matches. The record of 7 wins, 6 draws, and 8 defeats, together with a 37:32 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Marcus Ingvartsen (7 goals), Anders Dreyer (3 goals), David Vazquez (3 goals), with creative support from Anders Dreyer (4 assists), Lewis Morgan (3 assists), Pedro Soma (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.6%)
Predicted formations: Orlando City SC 4-2-3-1 / San Diego 4-3-3

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 16 4 2 47:17 30 52
W W W W D
2 22 12 6 4 56:41 15 42
W L D L D
3 21 11 4 6 39:28 11 37
D D W W W
4 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
W D W L L
5 22 10 5 7 40:32 8 35
W W D W L
6 22 8 7 7 49:51 -2 31
L D W D W
7 22 7 7 8 36:31 5 28
D D L L D
8 22 7 5 10 32:46 -14 26
L D L L W
9 22 7 4 11 37:54 -17 25
D W L D L
10 22 5 10 7 32:38 -6 25
D W D W D
11 22 5 10 7 28:36 -8 25
D L L D D
12 22 6 6 10 34:39 -5 24
W D D W W
13 22 6 3 13 25:38 -13 21
L W W W L
14 22 5 6 11 30:46 -16 21
L D W D D
15 22 5 5 12 31:39 -8 20
L L L L D
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)