COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
16.09.2026 23:15
Estadio Palogrande

Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 68%
Odds 1.30
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds 2.03
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
68%
1.30
BTTS Yes
86%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
2.03
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.15
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.40
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Once Caldas Win 47.4%
Draw 20.7%
Deportes Tolima Win 32%
Expected Goals (xG)
Once Caldas1.28
Deportes Tolima1.23
Recent Form (Last 5)
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WWDLW
46 GF / 37 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
54 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.48
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.19
Average Goals Conceded
0.98
23
BTTS Yes
18
14
Over 2.5
18
5.72
Shots on Goal
4.63

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Once Caldas Once Caldas 31 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 43 matches
Once Caldas Statistic Deportes Tolima
10 Wins 19
15 Draws 10
6 Losses 14
46 Goals For 54
37 Goals Against 42
1.48 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.19 Avg Goals Conceded 0.98
23 BTTS Yes 18
26 Over 1.5 28
14 Over 2.5 18
7 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 16
5 Failed To Score 14
5.72 Shots On Goal 4.63
15.24 Total Shots 12.63
5.24 Corners 4.79
54.4% Ball Possession 56.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportes Tolima. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Once Caldas expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Deportes Tolima in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportes Tolima having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Once Caldas Analysis

Once Caldas arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 33 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 31:22 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Andrés Roa (2 goals), Jefry Zapata (2 goals), Michael Barrios (1 goals), with creative support from Juan David Cuesta (2 assists), Andrés Roa (1 assists), Michael Barrios (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

So far, Deportes Tolima have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 31 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Jorge Hurtado (2 goals), Junior Hernández (1 goals), Sebastián Guzmán (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Hurtado (1 assists), Junior Hernández (1 assists), Adrián Parra (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Once Caldas won 1 times, Deportes Tolima won 8 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:20 from Once Caldas's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)
Predicted formations: Once Caldas 4-1-4-1 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Once Caldas wins 1, draws 6, Deportes Tolima wins 8

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification