COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio Palogrande

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 68%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 86%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
68%
-
BTTS Yes
86%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Once Caldas Win 47.4%
Draw 20.7%
Deportes Tolima Win 32%
Expected Goals (xG)
Once Caldas1.29
Deportes Tolima1.21
Recent Form (Last 5)
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WWDLW
43 GF / 32 GA
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima
WLDWL
49 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.54
Average Goals Scored
1.26
1.14
Average Goals Conceded
0.92
21
BTTS Yes
15
12
Over 2.5
15
5.54
Shots on Goal
4.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Once Caldas Once Caldas 28 matches
Deportes Tolima Deportes Tolima 39 matches
Once Caldas Statistic Deportes Tolima
9 Wins 17
15 Draws 10
4 Losses 12
43 Goals For 49
32 Goals Against 36
1.54 Avg Goals Scored 1.26
1.14 Avg Goals Conceded 0.92
21 BTTS Yes 15
23 Over 1.5 25
12 Over 2.5 15
7 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 16
4 Failed To Score 13
5.54 Shots On Goal 4.55
14.62 Total Shots 12.11
5.19 Corners 4.58
53.4% Ball Possession 54.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Deportes Tolima. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Once Caldas expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Deportes Tolima in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Deportes Tolima having the stronger overall control. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Once Caldas Analysis

Once Caldas arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 5 place with 33 points after 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 31:22 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Andrés Roa (2 goals), Jefry Zapata (2 goals), Michael Barrios (1 goals), with creative support from Juan David Cuesta (2 assists), Andrés Roa (1 assists), Michael Barrios (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Deportes Tolima Analysis

So far, Deportes Tolima have built a campaign that leaves them 6 in the table on 31 points from 19 matches. Their overall return of 8 wins, 7 draws, and 4 losses with goals at 27:17 reflects good form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Jorge Hurtado (2 goals), Junior Hernández (1 goals), Sebastián Guzmán (1 goals), with creative support from Jorge Hurtado (1 assists), Junior Hernández (1 assists), Adrián Parra (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 1 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Once Caldas won 1 times, Deportes Tolima won 8 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:20 from Once Caldas's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (79.4%)
Predicted formations: Once Caldas 4-1-4-1 / Deportes Tolima 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Once Caldas wins 1, draws 6, Deportes Tolima wins 8
Last matches: Once Caldas
24.08.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
1
1
D
09.08.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Jaguares
1
1
D
06.08.26
Pri
Once Caldas
America de Cali
0
1
L
03.08.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
2
2
D
27.07.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Cucuta
5
1
W
14.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
2
2
D
10.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
0
1
L
01.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Águilas Doradas
2
2
D
20.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
10.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
30.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Llaneros
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Millonarios
1
4
L
19.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
13.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pasto
4
2
W
07.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Cali
2
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Chico
3
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Fortaleza FC
4
2
W
15.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
1
2
L
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
22.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
19.08.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Independiente del Valle
0
1
L
08.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
04.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
3
L
01.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
W
26.07.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
19.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
0
1
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
07.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
3
0
W
03.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
29.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
3
0
W
24.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
0
2
L
18.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pereira
2
0
W
14.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
08.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
H2H: Once Caldas vs Deportes Tolima
15.02.26
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
2
1
L
24.08.25
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
11.03.25
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
2
0
L
08.12.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
1
0
L
21.11.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
25.10.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
1
1
D
26.05.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
13.05.24
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
1
1
D
06.04.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
2
1
W
21.07.23
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
3
1
L
31.01.23
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
17.09.22
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
1
0
L
22.03.22
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
2
2
D
09.10.21
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
18.01.21
H2H
Deportes Tolima
Once Caldas
1
1
D
Last matches: Once Caldas
06.08.26
Pri
Once Caldas
America de Cali
0
1
L
27.07.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Cucuta
5
1
W
10.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
0
1
L
01.05.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Atletico Nacional
1
0
W
20.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Internacional de Bogota
2
1
W
03.04.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
1
1
D
21.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Millonarios
1
4
L
13.03.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pasto
4
2
W
28.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Chico
3
0
W
21.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Fortaleza FC
4
2
W
12.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Junior
2
1
W
01.02.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Jaguares
1
1
D
26.01.26
Pri
Once Caldas
Santa Fe
1
1
D
09.11.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
26.10.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Union Magdalena
1
0
W
13.10.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Independiente Medellin
1
5
L
26.09.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Chico
5
2
W
13.09.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Envigado
1
0
W
06.09.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
24.08.25
Pri
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
H2H at home: Once Caldas
24.08.25
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
21.11.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
26.05.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
06.04.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
2
1
W
31.01.23
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
22.03.22
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
2
2
D
09.10.21
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
Last matches: Deportes Tolima
01.08.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Alianza Valledupar
2
1
W
27.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Universitario
0
0
D
23.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Atletico Nacional
1
3
L
19.05.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Coquimbo Unido
0
3
L
13.05.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
2
0
W
24.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Millonarios
0
2
L
14.04.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Club Nacional
1
3
L
11.04.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
23.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Chico
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
America de Cali
1
1
D
05.03.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
O'Higgins
0
1
L
23.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Cucuta
2
3
L
20.02.26
CON
Deportes Tolima
Deportivo Tachira FC
1
0
W
11.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
02.02.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Internacional de Bogota
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
18.01.26
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
2
0
W
13.12.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Junior
0
3
L
04.12.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Bucaramanga
0
0
D
26.11.25
Pri
Deportes Tolima
Santa Fe
2
1
W
H2H away: Deportes Tolima
24.08.25
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
1
W
21.11.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
0
D
26.05.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
1
W
06.04.24
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
2
1
L
31.01.23
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
22.03.22
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
2
2
D
09.10.21
H2H
Once Caldas
Deportes Tolima
0
2
W