CHILE PRIMERA DIVISIóN
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Ester Roa
Concepción
Match Timeline
O'Higgins
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
VAR
14'
B. Yanez
O'Higgins
🟨
34'
N. Garrido
O'Higgins
45'
J. Larrivey
Concepción
🟨
49'
A. Caceres
Concepción
🟨
51'
M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
57'
M. Cavalleri ↔ J. Montecinos
Concepción
🔄
57'
G. Pinto ↔ E. Moreira
O'Higgins
🔄
57'
M. Davila Carvajal ↔ Y. Rodriguez
Concepción
🔄
69'
T. Aviles ↔ B. Leiva
O'Higgins
🔄
69'
L. Diaz ↔ J. Poblete
O'Higgins
🟨
71'
N. Rodriguez
Concepción
🟨
72'
J. Poblete
O'Higgins
🔄
73'
J. Henriquez ↔ F. Romero
Concepción
75'
M. Sandoval
Concepción
🔄
78'
M. Maturana ↔ J. Munoz
O'Higgins
🔄
78'
B. Yanez ↔ J. Tapia
O'Higgins
🟥
82'
N. Garrido
O'Higgins
🟨
82'
N. Garrido
O'Higgins
VAR
84'
F. Romero
Concepción
84'
J. Larrivey · Assist: J. Larrivey
Concepción
🔄
87'
E. Espinoza ↔ C. Riquelme
Concepción
🔄
87'
J. Larrivey ↔ D. Acosta
Concepción

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.9%
Odds 2.49
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds 2.00
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.9%
2.49
BTTS Yes
82.5%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
2.00
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.25
HT / FT Home / Home
-
4.00
Correct Score 2-1
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Concepción Win 60.9%
Draw 3.8%
O'Higgins Win 35.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Concepción1.23
O'Higgins1.4
Recent Form (Last 5)
Concepción Concepción
WWDLW
25 GF / 31 GA
O'Higgins O'Higgins
WLDWL
35 GF / 34 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.4
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.36
10
BTTS Yes
14
9
Over 2.5
12
3.47
Shots on Goal
4.21

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Concepción Concepción 22 matches
O'Higgins O'Higgins 25 matches
Concepción Statistic O'Higgins
8 Wins 11
3 Draws 4
11 Losses 10
25 Goals For 35
31 Goals Against 34
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.4
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.36
10 BTTS Yes 14
18 Over 1.5 18
9 Over 2.5 12
3 Over 3.5 7
5 Clean Sheets 6
7 Failed To Score 6
3.47 Shots On Goal 4.21
12.4 Total Shots 12.79
4.53 Corners 5.11
47.5% Ball Possession 49.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward O'Higgins having the stronger overall control. O'Higgins arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors O'Higgins. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Concepción Analysis

Concepción approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 14 points from 15 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 2 draws, and 9 defeats, and the 14:23 goal record continues to suggest good form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on J. Larrivey (5 goals), C. Waterman (3 goals), I. S. Mesias Gonzalez (2 goals), with creative support from J. Larrivey (2 assists), Agustín Urzi (2 assists), Y. A. Oyanedel Hernandez (2 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

O'Higgins Analysis

With 20 points from 15 games and a place of 10, O'Higgins still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 7 defeats with a 19:22 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on F. Gonzalez (5 goals), Thiago Vecino (4 goals), A. Castillo (3 goals), with creative support from F. Gonzalez (4 assists), Bryan Rabello (2 assists), Thiago Vecino (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 1 head-to-head meetings, Concepción won 0 times, O'Higgins won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:2 from Concepción's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.2%)
Predicted formations: Concepción 4-2-3-1 / O'Higgins 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Concepción wins 0, draws 0, O'Higgins wins 1
Stats
Concepción Concepción
O'Higgins O'Higgins
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
6
Shots off Goal
5
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
1
4 Corner Kicks 4
11 Fouls 11
0 Offsides 1
42% Ball Possession 58%
20 Total Shots 7
9 Shots on Goal 2
6 Shots off Goal 5
5 Blocked Shots 1
9 Shots insidebox 4
11 Shots outsidebox 3
1 Goalkeeper Saves 7
320 Total passes 457
234 Passes accurate 371
0 expected_goals 0
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 3 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 1 🟥

Lineups

Concepción
Formation
O'Higgins
Nicolás Araya
Nicolás Araya
Ariel Cáceres
Ariel Cáceres
Norman Rodríguez
Norman Rodríguez
Fausto Grillo
Fausto Grillo
Dilan Varas
Dilan Varas
Mario Sandoval
Mario Sandoval
Misael Dávila
Misael Dávila
Matías Cavalleri
Matías Cavalleri
Jorge Henríquez
Jorge Henríquez
Ethan Espinoza
Ethan Espinoza
Joaquín Larrivey
⚽ 2 🎯
Joaquín Larrivey
Jorge Peña
Jorge Peña
Cristian Morales
Cristian Morales
Nicolás Garrido
Nicolás Garrido
José Movillo
José Movillo
Leandro Díaz
Leandro Díaz
Tomás Avilés
Tomás Avilés
Gabriel Pinto
Gabriel Pinto
Bastián Yáñez
Bastián Yáñez
Martín Maturana
Martín Maturana
Rodrigo Godoy
Rodrigo Godoy
Thiago Vecino
Thiago Vecino
Concepción 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
25
Nicolás Araya
G
4
Ariel Cáceres
🟨 49'
D
21
Norman Rodríguez
🟨 71'
D
37
Fausto Grillo
D
29
Dilan Varas
D
16
Mario Sandoval
⚽ 75' 🟨 51'
M
22
Misael Dávila
↓ 57'
M
24
Matías Cavalleri
↓ 57'
M
20
Jorge Henríquez
↓ 73'
M
30
Ethan Espinoza
M
32
Joaquín Larrivey
⚽ 45' ⚽ 84' 🎯 84' ↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
18
Yonathan Rodríguez
↑ 57'
M
15
Joaquín Montecinos
↑ 57'
F
7
Fernando Romero
↑ 73'
F
23
Cristian Riquelme
↑ 87'
D
27
Diego Acosta
↑ 87'
F
12
Nery Veloso
G
19
Aldrix Jara
F
8
Fernando Martinez
M
9
Carlos Escobar
F
O'Higgins 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
Jorge Peña
G
2
Cristian Morales
D
21
Nicolás Garrido
D
27
José Movillo
D
20
Leandro Díaz
↓ 69'
D
17
Tomás Avilés
↓ 69'
M
5
Gabriel Pinto
↓ 57'
M
29
Bastián Yáñez
↓ 78'
M
14
Martín Maturana
↓ 78'
M
26
Rodrigo Godoy
M
32
Thiago Vecino
F
Substitutes
18
Esteban Moreira
↑ 57'
F
38
Juan Poblete
D
34
Benjamin Pérez
M
30
Joaquín Tapia
↑ 78'
F
13
Joaquín Muñoz
↑ 78'
M
31
Omar Carabalí
G
3
Felipe Faúndez
D
15
Benjamín Rojas
D
8
Felipe Ogaz
M
Last matches: Concepción
12.07.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
2
0
W
06.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
02.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
2
1
W
29.06.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
0
2
L
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
21.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
1
1
D
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
30.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Chile
1
2
L
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
24.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Palestino
1
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
14.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Union La Calera
0
1
L
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
13.03.26
Pri
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
0
W
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
15.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Concepción
U. Catolica
0
2
L
Last matches: O'Higgins
05.07.26
Cop
O'Higgins
Union Espanola
2
1
W
03.07.26
Cop
O'Higgins
Colo Colo
4
1
W
28.06.26
Cop
O'Higgins
Recoleta
1
1
D
25.06.26
Cop
O'Higgins
Colo Colo
2
3
L
22.06.26
Cop
O'Higgins
Union Espanola
1
1
D
19.06.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Universidad de Chile
0
2
L
13.06.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Coquimbo Unido
0
0
D
31.05.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Everton de Vina
2
3
L
16.05.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Universidad de Concepcion
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Nublense
2
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Cobresal
3
2
W
11.04.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Huachipato
0
2
L
03.04.26
Pri
O'Higgins
A. Italiano
2
1
W
16.03.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Union La Calera
3
3
D
12.03.26
CON
O'Higgins
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
07.03.26
Pri
O'Higgins
U. Catolica
1
0
W
05.03.26
CON
O'Higgins
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
28.02.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Palestino
2
4
L
25.02.26
CON
O'Higgins
Bahia
1
2
L
21.02.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Colo Colo
0
1
L
H2H: Concepción vs O'Higgins
02.02.26
H2H
O'Higgins
Concepción
2
1
L
Last matches: Concepción
12.07.26
Cop
Concepción
D. Puerto Montt
2
0
W
06.07.26
Cop
Concepción
Deportes Temuco
2
0
W
24.06.26
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
3
2
W
14.06.26
Pri
Concepción
Deportes Limache
3
2
W
24.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Huachipato
2
0
W
18.05.26
Pri
Concepción
Everton de Vina
0
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Concepción
D. La Serena
3
3
D
05.04.26
Pri
Concepción
Colo Colo
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pri
Concepción
Nublense
0
2
L
20.02.26
Pri
Concepción
Cobresal
1
1
D
14.01.26
Fri
Concepción
Coquimbo Unido
1
2
L
02.07.25
Cop
Concepción
Huachipato
1
1
D
07.06.25
Cop
Concepción
Union Espanola
1
0
W
06.04.25
Cop
Concepción
A. Italiano
0
0
D
23.03.25
Cop
Concepción
Palestino
3
2
W
26.06.24
Cop
Concepción
Linares Unido
2
3
L
27.03.22
Cop
Concepción
Fernández Vial
0
2
L
03.07.21
Cop
Concepción
Palestino
0
4
L
27.06.21
Cop
Concepción
Santiago Wanderers
1
1
D
15.06.21
Cop
Concepción
Universidad de Concepcion
1
0
W
Last matches: O'Higgins
05.07.26
Cop
O'Higgins
Union Espanola
2
1
W
25.06.26
Cop
O'Higgins
Colo Colo
2
3
L
19.06.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Universidad de Chile
0
2
L
13.06.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Coquimbo Unido
0
0
D
25.04.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Nublense
2
0
W
19.04.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Cobresal
3
2
W
16.03.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Union La Calera
3
3
D
12.03.26
CON
O'Higgins
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Palestino
2
4
L
25.02.26
CON
O'Higgins
Bahia
1
2
L
14.02.26
Pri
O'Higgins
Deportes Limache
1
2
L
11.05.25
Cop
O'Higgins
Rangers de Talca
0
1
L
21.03.25
Cop
O'Higgins
Huachipato
1
2
L
01.02.25
Cop
O'Higgins
Deportes Temuco
1
1
D
30.06.24
Cop
O'Higgins
Colo Colo
1
3
L
16.06.24
Cop
O'Higgins
Lautaro de Buin
1
0
W
19.08.23
Cop
O'Higgins
Magallanes
1
2
L
03.07.23
Cop
O'Higgins
A. Italiano
2
0
W
21.06.23
Cop
O'Higgins
Universidad de Chile
0
0
D
08.04.23
Cop
O'Higgins
General Velásquez
2
1
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.82
Draw 3.47
Home 2.49
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.53
Draw 2.23
Home 3.14
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.74
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 2.75 2.28
Over 3.0 2.77
Over 3.5 3.44
Over 4.5 6.62
Under 1.5 3.52
Under 2.0 2.68
Under 2.25 2.13
Under 2.5 1.85
Under 2.75 1.66
Under 3.0 1.46
Under 3.5 1.32
Under 4.5 1.12
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.80
Draw 3.25
Home 2.45
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.40
Draw 2.20
Home 3.10
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 2.40
Home 2.75
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.06
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.5 2.00
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 4.5 7.00
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 29.00
Under 0.5 10.00
Under 1.5 3.40
Under 2.5 1.80
Under 3.5 1.30
Under 4.5 1.10
Under 5.5 1.03
Under 6.5 1.01
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.76
Draw 3.30
Home 2.42
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.42
Draw 2.05
Home 3.04
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.08
Draw 2.40
Home 2.71
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.01
Over 0.75 1.01
Over 1.0 1.02
Over 1.25 1.14
Over 1.5 1.26
Over 1.75 1.34
Over 2.0 1.44
Over 2.25 1.72
Over 2.5 1.95
Over 2.75 2.22
Over 3.0 2.66
Over 3.25 2.94
Over 3.5 3.28
Over 3.75 4.14
Over 4.0 5.80
Over 4.25 6.19
Over 4.5 6.60
Over 5.0 9.70
Over 5.5 12.50
Under 0.5 9.60
Under 0.75 8.65
Under 1.0 8.20
Under 1.25 4.44
Under 1.5 3.20
Under 1.75 2.87
Under 2.0 2.49
Under 2.25 2.07
Under 2.5 1.81
Under 2.75 1.63
Under 3.0 1.39
Under 3.25 1.31
Under 3.5 1.25
Under 3.75 1.16
Under 4.0 1.07
Under 4.25 1.06
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.0 1.01
Under 5.5 1.03
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.00
Draw 3.25
Home 2.28
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 2.14
Home 2.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.15
Draw 2.45
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.30
Over 2.0 1.49
Over 2.25 1.73
Over 2.5 1.97
Over 2.75 2.25
Over 3.0 2.75
Over 3.25 3.10
Over 3.5 3.40
Over 3.75 4.10
Over 4.0 5.50
Over 4.5 6.10
Under 1.5 3.10
Under 2.0 2.38
Under 2.25 1.95
Under 2.5 1.72
Under 2.75 1.55
Under 3.0 1.37
Under 3.25 1.30
Under 3.5 1.26
Under 3.75 1.18
Under 4.0 1.10
Under 4.5 1.08

Standings

Primera
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 13 0 3 32:13 19 39
W W W W W
2 16 8 3 5 38:23 15 27
D W W L W
3 16 7 6 3 19:11 8 27
W W D W L
4 16 6 7 3 20:19 1 25
W D W D L
5 15 7 3 5 22:18 4 24
D W D W L
6 16 7 3 6 26:25 1 24
D D L L W
7 16 7 3 6 23:23 0 24
L W D W W
8 15 6 4 5 19:15 4 22
L W D W W
9 16 6 3 7 31:26 5 21
L L L L L
10 16 6 2 8 19:24 -5 20
L L D L L
11 16 4 7 5 24:28 -4 19
D D L W L
12 15 5 4 6 13:26 -13 19
L D D W L
13 16 5 2 9 16:23 -7 17
W W L W L
14 16 4 4 8 19:23 -4 16
L D D W L
15 16 4 2 10 22:32 -10 14
D L L L W
16 15 3 3 9 14:28 -14 12
D D L L L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga de Ascenso