LATVIA VIRSLIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Referee: E. Malcevs
Ogre United
Match Timeline
Grobiņa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
I. Matyushenko
Grobiņa
🔄
5'
V. Mashchenko ↔ K. Johnson
Ogre United
🟨
20'
K. Rupeiks
Grobiņa
🟨
23'
K. Johnson
Ogre United
🟨
25'
H. Silagailis
Ogre United
33'
K. Johnson · Assist: K. Cudars
Ogre United
42'
R. Baravykas
Grobiņa
🟨
48'
H. Silagailis
Ogre United
🟥
48'
H. Silagailis
Ogre United
🟨
49'
D. Vejkrigers
Ogre United
🔄
61'
M. Kalnins ↔ E. Evelons
Ogre United
🔄
62'
↔ R. Aditajs
Ogre United
🔄
65'
D. Dobrecovs ↔ A. Aruna
Grobiņa
🔄
79'
A. Puzirevskis ↔ D. Sirbu
Grobiņa
🔄
81'
M. Ivulans ↔ R. Ziemelis
Ogre United
🟨
82'
K. Cudars
Ogre United
🟨
82'
K. Putnins
Ogre United
🔄
88'
M. Sidorovs ↔ H. Yamada
Grobiņa
🟨
90+2'
D. Druzinins
Grobiņa
🟨
90+3'
M. Marusii
Ogre United

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 73.7%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 13.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 24.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
73.7%
-
BTTS BTTS No
13.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
24.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ogre United Win 26.3%
Draw 0%
Grobiņa Win 73.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ogre United1.15
Grobiņa1.61
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ogre United Ogre United
WWDLW
13 GF / 38 GA
Grobiņa Grobiņa
WLDWL
23 GF / 35 GA
Key Stats
0.81
Average Goals Scored
1.1
2.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.67
11
BTTS Yes
12
9
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ogre United Ogre United 16 matches
Grobiņa Grobiņa 21 matches
Ogre United Statistic Grobiņa
0 Wins 4
3 Draws 9
13 Losses 8
13 Goals For 23
38 Goals Against 35
0.81 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
2.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.67
11 BTTS Yes 12
13 Over 1.5 16
9 Over 2.5 7
6 Over 3.5 5
0 Clean Sheets 3
5 Failed To Score 7
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Grobiņa having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Ogre United have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Grobiņa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 9 with 12 points while Ogre United sit 10 on 3, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Grobiņa.

Ogre United Analysis

With 3 points from 13 games and a place of 10, Ogre United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 0 wins, 3 draws, and 10 defeats with a 11:32 goal balance points toward poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on K. Cudars (5 goals), E. Evelons (1 goals), K. Johnson (1 goals), with creative support from M. Kalnins (1 assists), D. Vejkrigers (1 assists), F. Machado (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Grobiņa Analysis

Grobiņa are currently 9 in the standings with 12 points from 13 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses, while the 9:21 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on A. Puzirevskis (4 goals), A. Kholod (2 goals), D. Druzinins (1 goals), with creative support from M. Sidorovs (2 assists), A. Puzirevskis (1 assists), R. Baravykas (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Ogre United won 0 times, Grobiņa won 0 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:2 from Ogre United's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
H2H summary: Ogre United wins 0, draws 2, Grobiņa wins 0

Lineups

Grobiņa
Formation
Ogre United
V. Kudrjavcevs
V. Kudrjavcevs
K. Rupeiks
K. Rupeiks
D. Druzinins
D. Druzinins
J. Krautmanis
J. Krautmanis
R. Baravykas
R. Baravykas
I. Matyushenko
I. Matyushenko
G. Kluskins
G. Kluskins
O. Rascevskis
O. Rascevskis
M. Sidorovs
M. Sidorovs
D. Dobrecovs
D. Dobrecovs
A. Puzirevskis
A. Puzirevskis
N. Parfjonovs
N. Parfjonovs
M. Lormanis
M. Lormanis
T. Marusiy
T. Marusiy
M. Marusii
M. Marusii
D. Vejkrigers
D. Vejkrigers
T. Mickevics
T. Mickevics
V. Mashchenko
V. Mashchenko
K. Cudars
🎯
K. Cudars
M. Kalnins
M. Kalnins
H. Silagailis
H. Silagailis
M. Ivulans
M. Ivulans
Grobiņa 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
V. Kudrjavcevs
2
K. Rupeiks
🟨 20'
3
D. Druzinins
🟨 90+2'
7
J. Krautmanis
27
R. Baravykas
⚽ 42'
29
I. Matyushenko
🟨 2'
32
G. Kluskins
11
O. Rascevskis
14
M. Sidorovs
↓ 88'
10
D. Dobrecovs
↓ 65'
99
A. Puzirevskis
↓ 79'
Substitutes
12
N. Pincuks
23
M. Fjodorovs
87
J. Ribeiro
19
R. Gaucis
8
O. Olatunde-Matthew
13
A. Aruna
↑ 65'
25
D. Sirbu
↑ 79'
20
H. Yamada
↑ 88'
17
R. Bethers
Ogre United 4-4-2 (estimated)
Starting XI
1
N. Parfjonovs
37
M. Lormanis
3
T. Marusiy
77
M. Marusii
🟨 90+3'
6
D. Vejkrigers
🟨 49'
8
T. Mickevics
17
V. Mashchenko
↓ 5'
19
K. Cudars
🎯 33' 🟨 82'
10
M. Kalnins
↓ 61'
9
H. Silagailis
🟨 25' 🟨 48' 🟥 48'
21
M. Ivulans
↓ 81'
Substitutes
20
K. Biscuhis
14
R. Aditajs
↑ 62'
18
E. Evelons
↑ 61'
28
D. Sedols
2
R. Ziemelis
↑ 81'
7
K. Kumakura
11
M. Pacepko
23
E. Sprukts
47
K. Johnson
⚽ 33' ↑ 5' 🟨 23'
Last matches: Ogre United
06.07.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
2
1
W
30.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
4
L
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
22.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
0
6
L
17.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
2
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
30.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
0
2
L
21.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
3
L
16.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
3
L
12.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
1
4
L
07.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
6
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
22.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
0
4
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
07.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
1
2
L
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
Last matches: Grobiņa
05.07.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
1
W
29.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
2
L
25.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
0
D
20.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
16.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
0
W
13.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
1
3
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
20.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
2
L
15.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
3
3
D
11.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
0
D
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
02.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
1
D
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
3
L
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
09.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Super Nova
0
1
L
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
14.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
2
L
H2H: Ogre United vs Grobiņa
25.05.26
H2H
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
13.04.26
H2H
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
Last matches: Ogre United
26.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
3
2
W
13.06.26
Vir
Ogre United
Riga
1
4
L
02.05.26
Vir
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
3
4
L
27.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
FS Jelgava
0
1
L
17.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Auda
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
03.04.26
Vir
Ogre United
Super Nova
1
2
L
20.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
0
1
L
15.03.26
Vir
Ogre United
Tukums
1
1
D
H2H at home: Ogre United
25.05.26
H2H
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
13.04.26
H2H
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
Last matches: Grobiņa
29.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
0
2
L
20.06.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
0
1
L
29.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Riga
0
2
L
07.05.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Auda
0
7
L
28.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FK Liepaja
1
1
D
13.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Ogre United
1
1
D
05.04.26
Vir
Grobiņa
Tukums
1
1
D
21.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
FS Jelgava
1
0
W
07.03.26
Vir
Grobiņa
BFC Daugavpils
1
0
W
25.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Metta / LU
3
1
W
15.02.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Hegelmann Litauen
1
2
L
24.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Suduva Marijampole
1
1
D
21.01.26
Fri
Grobiņa
Rīgas FS
2
3
L
H2H away: Grobiņa
25.05.26
H2H
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D
13.04.26
H2H
Ogre United
Grobiņa
1
1
D

Standings

Virsliga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 18 2 2 54:16 38 56
D W W W L
2 22 17 4 1 65:19 46 55
W W D W W
3 22 12 4 6 37:26 11 40
D L D W L
4 22 8 4 10 28:34 -6 28
L W L L L
5 22 7 6 9 25:29 -4 27
W L D W D
6 22 6 7 9 24:38 -14 25
L W W W L
7 22 7 3 12 23:35 -12 24
L W L L D
8 22 4 8 10 15:33 -18 20
W L D L W
9 22 3 8 11 37:44 -7 17
L L L L W
10 22 3 4 15 21:55 -34 13
W L W L W
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - Nakotnes liga