BRAZIL SERIE B
20.08.2026 23:30
Estadio Dr. Jorge Ismael de Biasi
Referee: B. Machado
Novorizontino
Match Timeline
America Mineiro
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Paulo Victor
America Mineiro
🟨
19'
Madson
Novorizontino
23'
Patrick · Assist: Diego Mathias
Novorizontino
🟨
33'
Manoel
America Mineiro
39'
Rômulo
Novorizontino
🔄
46'
Manoel ↔ Jorge Jimenez
America Mineiro
🔄
46'
Gonzalo Mastriani ↔ Guilherme Parede
America Mineiro
🔄
66'
Yago Souza ↔ R. Pineiro
America Mineiro
🔄
67'
Reidiney ↔ Juninho
Novorizontino
🔄
67'
Diego Mathias ↔ Vinicius Paiva
Novorizontino
🟨
71'
Patrick
Novorizontino
🔄
76'
Willian Bigode ↔ F. Elizari
America Mineiro
81'
Robson
Novorizontino
🔄
82'
Robson ↔ Nicolas Careca
Novorizontino
🔄
82'
Romulo ↔ Carlao
Novorizontino
🔄
84'
Gustavo Barreto ↔ Felipe Amaral
America Mineiro
🟨
86'
Nicolas Careca
Novorizontino
🔄
89'
Leo Naldi ↔ Marlon
Novorizontino
90'
Carlao · Assist: Luis Oyama
Novorizontino

Novorizontino vs America Mineiro Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 73.8%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
73.8%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Novorizontino Win 73.8%
Draw 5.2%
America Mineiro Win 21%
Expected Goals (xG)
Novorizontino1.53
America Mineiro0.8
Recent Form (Last 5)
Novorizontino Novorizontino
WWDLW
32 GF / 20 GA
America Mineiro America Mineiro
WLDWL
16 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
0.73
0.91
Average Goals Conceded
1.64
10
BTTS Yes
12
11
Over 2.5
12
4.59
Shots on Goal
4.36

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Novorizontino Novorizontino 22 matches
America Mineiro America Mineiro 22 matches
Novorizontino Statistic America Mineiro
9 Wins 2
7 Draws 5
6 Losses 15
32 Goals For 16
20 Goals Against 36
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 0.73
0.91 Avg Goals Conceded 1.64
10 BTTS Yes 12
14 Over 1.5 16
11 Over 2.5 12
5 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 3
7 Failed To Score 8
4.59 Shots On Goal 4.36
13.68 Total Shots 12.45
5.59 Corners 5.36
47.6% Ball Possession 53.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Novorizontino's more proactive style and America Mineiro's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors America Mineiro. Novorizontino arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 33 points compared to America Mineiro in 19 on 11, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Novorizontino have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Novorizontino expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and America Mineiro in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward America Mineiro having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Novorizontino Analysis

Novorizontino approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 6 with 33 points from 21 matches. The overall return of 9 wins, 6 draws, and 6 defeats with a 32:20 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on Robson (6 goals), Rômulo (3 goals), Tavinho (2 goals), with creative support from Rômulo (6 assists), Robson (3 assists), Juninho (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 5 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

America Mineiro Analysis

America Mineiro approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 19 with 11 points from 21 matches. Across the season they have posted 2 wins, 5 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 15:33 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Gonzalo Mastriani (3 goals), Matías Segovia (2 goals), Paulo Victor (2 goals), with creative support from Matías Segovia (2 assists), Willian Bigode (2 assists), Gonzalo Mastriani (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 7 head-to-head meetings, Novorizontino won 3 times, America Mineiro won 1 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:7 from Novorizontino's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.86 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (94.8%)
Predicted formations: Novorizontino 4-2-3-1 / America Mineiro 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Novorizontino wins 3, draws 3, America Mineiro wins 1

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 29 15 6 8 41:31 10 51
W D W L W
2 29 14 9 6 33:24 9 51
W D W W D
3 29 14 8 7 49:27 22 50
L D W W W
4 29 14 8 7 31:19 12 50
L L W D D
5 28 13 8 7 28:25 3 47
L L W L L
6 29 12 10 7 36:27 9 46
L W W D W
7 29 13 6 10 42:41 1 45
L W L W W
8 28 12 8 8 39:36 3 44
D W W D D
9 29 11 11 7 39:29 10 44
W L W L L
10 29 12 6 11 30:35 -5 42
W W L L W
11 29 11 8 10 40:31 9 41
W W L W L
12 29 10 11 8 34:31 3 41
D W L W L
13 28 9 13 6 27:22 5 40
D W L W D
14 28 10 8 10 35:33 2 38
D L W W D
15 29 9 8 12 31:37 -6 35
W D L W L
16 29 8 8 13 32:36 -4 32
D L L L L
17 29 8 6 15 30:38 -8 30
L D L L L
18 29 7 7 15 39:41 -2 28
L W W L D
19 29 4 5 20 21:49 -28 17
L L W L W
20 29 3 4 22 17:62 -45 13
W L L L L
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