BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Janio Moraes
Nova Iguaçu
Match Timeline
XV de Piracicaba
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
53'
Daniel Zavoli
Nova Iguaçu

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85.1%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 57.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85.1%
-
BTTS Yes
57.9%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
58.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nova Iguaçu Win 35.9%
Draw 14.9%
XV de Piracicaba Win 49.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nova Iguaçu0.76
XV de Piracicaba1.38
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu
WWDLW
6 GF / 10 GA
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba
WLDWL
14 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
0.67
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.11
Average Goals Conceded
0.89
4
BTTS Yes
7
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nova Iguaçu Nova Iguaçu 9 matches
XV de Piracicaba XV de Piracicaba 9 matches
Nova Iguaçu Statistic XV de Piracicaba
2 Wins 4
3 Draws 5
4 Losses 0
6 Goals For 14
10 Goals Against 8
0.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.11 Avg Goals Conceded 0.89
4 BTTS Yes 7
4 Over 1.5 7
2 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 2
4 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by XV de Piracicaba's more proactive style and Nova Iguaçu's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward XV de Piracicaba. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. XV de Piracicaba carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 17 points while Nova Iguaçu sit 6 on 9, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward XV de Piracicaba having the stronger overall control.

Nova Iguaçu Analysis

Nova Iguaçu sit 6 with 9 points after 9 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, while the 6:10 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

XV de Piracicaba Analysis

XV de Piracicaba arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 1 place with 17 points after 9 matches. Their overall return of 4 wins, 5 draws, and 0 losses with goals at 14:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by David Ribeiro (3 goals), Antonio Gabriel (2 goals), Henry (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Nova Iguaçu won 1 times, XV de Piracicaba won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:4 from Nova Iguaçu's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
H2H summary: Nova Iguaçu wins 1, draws 0, XV de Piracicaba wins 1
Last matches: Nova Iguaçu
30.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
23.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
0
1
L
18.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
4
L
26.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Porto Vitória
1
1
D
19.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Água Santa
1
2
L
12.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
1
3
L
05.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
28.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
1
1
D
14.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
07.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
0
1
L
31.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
1
1
D
24.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
1
0
W
17.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
2
1
W
10.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
0
1
L
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
27.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
2
0
W
20.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
1
1
D
30.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
04.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
W
H2H: Nova Iguaçu vs XV de Piracicaba
07.06.26
H2H
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
0
W
04.04.26
H2H
XV de Piracicaba
Nova Iguaçu
4
1
L
Last matches: Nova Iguaçu
23.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Noroeste
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Velo Clube
0
0
D
12.04.26
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
0
1
L
26.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Porto Vitória
1
1
D
12.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
CFRJ / Maricá
1
3
L
05.07.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Pouso Alegre
2
1
W
14.06.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
31.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Portuguesa
1
1
D
17.05.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Boavista SC
2
1
W
26.04.25
Ser
Nova Iguaçu
Água Santa
1
2
L
H2H at home: Nova Iguaçu
07.06.26
H2H
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
0
W
Last matches: XV de Piracicaba
04.07.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Cianorte
0
4
L
20.06.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
América RJ
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Velo Clube
1
1
D
16.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Sampaio Corrêa RJ
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
XV de Piracicaba
Noroeste
2
2
D
H2H away: XV de Piracicaba
07.06.26
H2H
Nova Iguaçu
XV de Piracicaba
1
0
L