WORLD UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
City Ground
Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
Nottingham Forest
Match Timeline
Aston Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
55'
A. Onana ↔ L. Bogarde
Aston Villa
VAR
69'
Omari Hutchinson
Nottingham Forest
71'
C. Wood
Nottingham Forest
🔄
75'
O. Aina ↔ Z. Abbott
Nottingham Forest
🟨
78'
Youri Tielemans
Aston Villa
🔄
78'
L. Digne ↔ Douglas Luiz
Aston Villa
🔄
79'
E. Buendia ↔ I. Maatsen
Aston Villa
🔄
79'
J. McGinn ↔ J. Sancho
Aston Villa
🔄
90'
Igor Jesus ↔ R. Yates
Nottingham Forest

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.6%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nottingham Forest Win 30.2%
Draw 17.3%
Aston Villa Win 52.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest1.26
Aston Villa1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WWDLW
67 GF / 60 GA
Aston Villa Aston Villa
WLDWL
74 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
21
BTTS Yes
25
27
Over 2.5
24
4.8
Shots on Goal
4.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 49 matches
Aston Villa Aston Villa 48 matches
Nottingham Forest Statistic Aston Villa
17 Wins 29
13 Draws 7
19 Losses 12
67 Goals For 74
60 Goals Against 53
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
21 BTTS Yes 25
38 Over 1.5 35
27 Over 2.5 24
12 Over 3.5 13
15 Clean Sheets 16
17 Failed To Score 10
4.8 Shots On Goal 4.58
14.08 Total Shots 12.48
5.55 Corners 5.13
49.2% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Nottingham Forest appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Aston Villa. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Aston Villa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 21 points while Nottingham Forest sit 13 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aston Villa. Aston Villa look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest enter this tie with a season profile built on 14 points from 8 matches, placing them 13 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 15:7 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Igor Jesus (7 goals), Morgan Gibbs-White (3 goals), Ryan Yates (3 goals), with creative support from Morgan Gibbs-White (3 assists), Ryan Yates (3 assists), Igor Jesus (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with W. Boly, T. Awoniyi, Cunha unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Aston Villa Analysis

Aston Villa come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 21 points from 8 matches. The return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 14:6 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by D. Malen (4 goals), O. Watkins (4 goals), J. McGinn (3 goals), with creative support from E. Buendia (4 assists), Morgan Rogers (3 assists), Y. Tielemans (3 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Alysson, B. Kamara, B. Madjo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nottingham Forest won 3 times, Aston Villa won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:29 from Nottingham Forest's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.8%)
Predicted formations: Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1 / Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Nottingham Forest 9, Aston Villa 5
H2H summary: Nottingham Forest wins 3, draws 3, Aston Villa wins 8
Stats
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa Aston Villa
Shots on Goal
5
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
3
5 Corner Kicks 7
7 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
50% Ball Possession 50%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Goal 4
3 Shots off Goal 3
3 Blocked Shots 3
9 Shots insidebox 7
2 Shots outsidebox 3
4 Goalkeeper Saves 4
389 Total passes 379
331 Passes accurate 328
1.56 expected_goals 0.79
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nottingham Forest
Formation
Aston Villa
S. Ortega
S. Ortega
O. Aina
O. Aina
N. Milenkovic
N. Milenkovic
Morato
Morato
N. Williams
N. Williams
O. Hutchinson
O. Hutchinson
N. Dominguez
N. Dominguez
E. Anderson
E. Anderson
M. Gibbs-White
M. Gibbs-White
Igor Jesus
Igor Jesus
C. Wood
C. Wood
E. Martinez
E. Martinez
M. Cash
M. Cash
E. Konsa
E. Konsa
P. Torres
P. Torres
L. Digne
L. Digne
A. Onana
A. Onana
Y. Tielemans
Y. Tielemans
J. McGinn
J. McGinn
M. Rogers
M. Rogers
E. Buendia
E. Buendia
O. Watkins
O. Watkins
Nottingham Forest 4-4-2
Starting XI
27
S. Ortega
G
34
O. Aina
↓ 75'
D
31
N. Milenkovic
D
4
Morato
D
3
N. Williams
D
21
O. Hutchinson
M
16
N. Dominguez
M
8
E. Anderson
M
10
M. Gibbs-White
M
19
Igor Jesus
↓ 90'
F
11
C. Wood
⚽ 71'
F
Substitutes
26
M. Sels
G
67
K. Willows
G
22
R. Yates
↑ 90'
M
29
D. Bakwa
F
24
J. McAtee
M
77
Z. Blake
F
20
L. Lucca
F
65
J. Hanks
D
44
Z. Abbott
↑ 75'
D
51
A. Whitehall
M
61
J. Sinclair
M
Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
23
E. Martinez
G
2
M. Cash
D
4
E. Konsa
D
14
P. Torres
D
12
L. Digne
↓ 78'
D
24
A. Onana
↓ 55'
M
8
Y. Tielemans
🟨 78'
M
7
J. McGinn
↓ 79'
M
27
M. Rogers
M
10
E. Buendia
↓ 79'
M
11
O. Watkins
F
Substitutes
40
M. Bizot
G
64
J. Wright
G
3
V. Lindelof
D
5
T. Mings
D
31
L. Bailey
F
21
Douglas Luiz
↑ 78'
M
22
I. Maatsen
↑ 79'
D
9
H. Elliott
M
26
L. Bogarde
↑ 55'
M
18
T. Abraham
F
19
J. Sancho
↑ 79'
F
16
A. Garcia
D
Last matches: Nottingham Forest
24.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
1
1
D
17.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
2
3
L
10.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
1
1
D
07.05.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
4
L
04.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
3
1
W
24.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
5
0
W
19.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4
1
W
16.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
09.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
1
D
22.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
3
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
2
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
0
1
L
04.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
2
2
D
01.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
1
2
L
26.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
0
1
L
19.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
3
0
W
11.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
0
0
D
Last matches: Aston Villa
24.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Manchester City
2
1
W
20.05.26
UEF
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
3
0
W
15.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Liverpool
4
2
W
10.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Burnley
2
2
D
07.05.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
4
0
W
03.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Tottenham
1
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Fulham
0
1
L
19.04.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Sunderland
4
3
W
16.04.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Bologna
4
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
09.04.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Bologna
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
Aston Villa
Elche
1
2
L
22.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
West Ham
2
0
W
19.03.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Lille
2
0
W
15.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Manchester United
1
3
L
12.03.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Lille
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Chelsea
1
4
L
27.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Wolves
0
2
L
21.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Leeds
1
1
D
14.02.26
FA
Aston Villa
Newcastle
1
3
L
H2H: Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
07.05.26
H2H
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
4
0
L
30.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
0
W
12.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
03.01.26
H2H
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
3
1
L
05.04.25
H2H
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
2
1
L
14.12.24
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
2
1
W
24.02.24
H2H
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
4
2
L
05.11.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
2
0
W
08.04.23
H2H
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
2
0
L
10.10.22
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
28.07.21
H2H
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
0
0
D
13.03.19
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
3
L
28.11.18
H2H
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
5
5
D
13.01.18
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
1
L
23.09.17
H2H
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
2
1
L
Last matches: Nottingham Forest
24.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
1
1
D
10.05.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
1
1
D
19.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
4
1
W
16.04.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
0
0
D
12.03.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
0
1
L
26.02.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
1
2
L
22.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
0
1
L
11.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
0
0
D
01.02.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
1
1
D
29.01.26
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Ferencvarosi TC
4
0
W
17.01.26
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
0
0
D
30.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Everton
0
2
L
27.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
1
2
L
14.12.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
3
0
W
30.11.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
0
2
L
27.11.25
UEF
Nottingham Forest
Malmo FF
3
0
W
09.11.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
3
1
W
01.11.25
Pre
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
2
2
D
H2H at home: Nottingham Forest
30.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
0
W
12.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
14.12.24
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
2
1
W
05.11.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
2
0
W
10.10.22
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
13.03.19
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
3
L
13.01.18
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
1
L
Last matches: Aston Villa
24.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Manchester City
2
1
W
20.05.26
UEF
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
3
0
W
10.05.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Burnley
2
2
D
25.04.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Fulham
0
1
L
12.04.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
1
1
D
09.04.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Bologna
3
1
W
15.03.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Manchester United
1
3
L
12.03.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Lille
1
0
W
27.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Wolves
0
2
L
07.02.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Newcastle
2
0
W
22.01.26
UEF
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
1
0
W
10.01.26
FA
Aston Villa
Tottenham
2
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
30.12.25
Pre
Aston Villa
Arsenal
1
4
L
27.12.25
Pre
Aston Villa
Chelsea
2
1
W
14.12.25
Pre
Aston Villa
West Ham
3
2
W
11.12.25
UEF
Aston Villa
FC Basel 1893
2
1
W
03.12.25
Pre
Aston Villa
Brighton
4
3
W
23.11.25
Pre
Aston Villa
Leeds
2
1
W
H2H away: Aston Villa
30.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
0
L
12.04.26
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
14.12.24
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
2
1
L
05.11.23
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
2
0
L
10.10.22
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
1
D
13.03.19
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
1
3
W
13.01.18
H2H
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
0
1
W

Standings

# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:5 13 21
W W W W L
2 8 7 0 1 14:6 8 21
W W W W W
3 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
W D W L W
4 8 5 2 1 13:7 6 17
W L W W W
5 8 5 2 1 13:7 6 17
W D W W D
6 8 5 2 1 11:5 6 17
D W W D L
7 8 5 2 1 10:4 6 17
L W W D W
8 8 5 1 2 13:6 7 16
D W W W W
9 8 5 1 2 11:7 4 16
W W L W W
10 8 4 3 1 14:7 7 15
W D W W D
11 8 5 0 3 15:9 6 15
W L W W W
12 8 4 3 1 12:11 1 15
L D W D W
13 8 4 2 2 15:7 8 14
W L W W D
14 8 3 5 0 8:3 5 14
W D D D D
15 8 4 2 2 7:6 1 14
D W W W W
16 8 4 1 3 15:11 4 13
D W L L W
17 8 3 3 2 17:14 3 12
L W D D W
18 8 4 0 4 12:9 3 12
W L L W L
19 8 3 3 2 10:7 3 12
D L W D D
20 8 3 3 2 11:9 2 12
D D D W W
21 8 3 2 3 13:15 -2 11
W D L W L
22 8 3 1 4 12:15 -3 10
W L D W L
23 8 3 1 4 12:16 -4 10
L W L L L
24 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L D L D D
25 8 3 0 5 10:16 -6 9
L L W L L
26 8 2 1 5 5:11 -6 7
W L L L D
27 8 2 1 5 9:16 -7 7
D L W L L
28 8 2 1 5 6:14 -8 7
D L L L L
29 8 2 0 6 11:15 -4 6
L W L L L
30 8 2 0 6 9:13 -4 6
L L L L W
31 8 2 0 6 10:15 -5 6
L W L L W
32 8 1 1 6 5:14 -9 4
L W L D L
33 8 1 0 7 7:15 -8 3
L W L L L
34 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L L D
35 8 0 1 7 4:15 -11 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 2:22 -20 1
L L L L L

Missing Players

Nottingham Forest 9 missing
-
W. Boly
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
T. Awoniyi
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Cunha
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
John Victor
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
L. Netz
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
N. Savona
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
E. da Silva Moreira
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
Murillo
Questionable Muscle Injury
OUT
-
C. Hudson-Odoi
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
Aston Villa 5 missing
-
Alysson
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
B. Kamara
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
B. Madjo
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
R. Barkley
Missing Fixture Inactive
OUT
-
A. Onana
Questionable Injury
OUT