Predictions & Statistics
Full analysis and predictions for all markets
| Market | Option | Probability | Odds | Stats & Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away Win |
52.6%
|
- | |
| BTTS | BTTS Yes |
77.4%
|
- | |
| Over / Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 |
74.5%
|
- | |
| Corners O/U | Over 7.5 Corners |
90.6%
|
- | |
| HT / FT | Draw / Away |
-
|
- | |
| Correct Score | 0-2 |
-
|
- |
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Statistics are based on season averages
Season Statistics
Team averages and season trends before this fixture
Nottingham Forest
49 matches
Aston Villa
48 matches
| Nottingham Forest | Statistic | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 17 | Wins | 29 |
| 13 | Draws | 7 |
| 19 | Losses | 12 |
| 67 | Goals For | 74 |
| 60 | Goals Against | 53 |
| 1.37 | Avg Goals Scored | 1.54 |
| 1.22 | Avg Goals Conceded | 1.1 |
| 21 | BTTS Yes | 25 |
| 38 | Over 1.5 | 35 |
| 27 | Over 2.5 | 24 |
| 12 | Over 3.5 | 13 |
| 15 | Clean Sheets | 16 |
| 17 | Failed To Score | 10 |
| 4.8 | Shots On Goal | 4.58 |
| 14.08 | Total Shots | 12.48 |
| 5.55 | Corners | 5.13 |
| 49.2% | Ball Possession | 53.9% |
Match Analysis
Model notes, team context and key prediction signals
This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Nottingham Forest appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Aston Villa. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Aston Villa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 21 points while Nottingham Forest sit 13 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aston Villa. Aston Villa look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.
Nottingham Forest enter this tie with a season profile built on 14 points from 8 matches, placing them 13 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 15:7 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Igor Jesus (7 goals), Morgan Gibbs-White (3 goals), Ryan Yates (3 goals), with creative support from Morgan Gibbs-White (3 assists), Ryan Yates (3 assists), Igor Jesus (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with W. Boly, T. Awoniyi, Cunha unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Aston Villa come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 21 points from 8 matches. The return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 14:6 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by D. Malen (4 goals), O. Watkins (4 goals), J. McGinn (3 goals), with creative support from E. Buendia (4 assists), Morgan Rogers (3 assists), Y. Tielemans (3 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Alysson, B. Kamara, B. Madjo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.
Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nottingham Forest won 3 times, Aston Villa won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:29 from Nottingham Forest's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.
Nottingham Forest
5
4
3
3
3
3
Lineups
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Chelsea
Nottingham Forest
Sunderland
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
Aston Villa
Liverpool
Aston Villa
Burnley
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Sunderland
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Elche
Aston Villa
West Ham
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Aston Villa
Wolves
Aston Villa
Leeds
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Nottingham Forest
Bournemouth
Nottingham Forest
Newcastle
Nottingham Forest
Burnley
Nottingham Forest
FC Porto
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Fulham
Nottingham Forest
FC Midtjylland
Nottingham Forest
Fenerbahçe
Nottingham Forest
Liverpool
Nottingham Forest
Wolves
Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
Nottingham Forest
Ferencvarosi TC
Nottingham Forest
Arsenal
Nottingham Forest
Everton
Nottingham Forest
Manchester City
Nottingham Forest
Tottenham
Nottingham Forest
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
Malmo FF
Nottingham Forest
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Manchester City
Aston Villa
SC Freiburg
Aston Villa
Burnley
Aston Villa
Fulham
Aston Villa
Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa
Bologna
Aston Villa
Manchester United
Aston Villa
Lille
Aston Villa
Wolves
Aston Villa
Bournemouth
Aston Villa
Newcastle
Aston Villa
Fenerbahçe
Aston Villa
Tottenham
Aston Villa
Crystal Palace
Aston Villa
Arsenal
Aston Villa
Chelsea
Aston Villa
West Ham
Aston Villa
FC Basel 1893
Aston Villa
Brighton
Aston Villa
Leeds
Standings
| # | Team | MP | W | D | L | G | GD | PTS | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 18:5 | 13 | 21 |
W
W
W
W
L
|
|
| 2 |
Aston Villa
Away
|
8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 14:6 | 8 | 21 |
W
W
W
W
W
|
| 3 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18:8 | 10 | 19 |
W
D
W
L
W
|
|
| 4 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 6 | 17 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 5 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 13:7 | 6 | 17 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 6 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11:5 | 6 | 17 |
D
W
W
D
L
|
|
| 7 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 10:4 | 6 | 17 |
L
W
W
D
W
|
|
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 13:6 | 7 | 16 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 9 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11:7 | 4 | 16 |
W
W
L
W
W
|
|
| 10 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 14:7 | 7 | 15 |
W
D
W
W
D
|
|
| 11 | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 15:9 | 6 | 15 |
W
L
W
W
W
|
|
| 12 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12:11 | 1 | 15 |
L
D
W
D
W
|
|
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
Home
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 15:7 | 8 | 14 |
W
L
W
W
D
|
| 14 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 8:3 | 5 | 14 |
W
D
D
D
D
|
|
| 15 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 7:6 | 1 | 14 |
D
W
W
W
W
|
|
| 16 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15:11 | 4 | 13 |
D
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 17 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 17:14 | 3 | 12 |
L
W
D
D
W
|
|
| 18 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 12:9 | 3 | 12 |
W
L
L
W
L
|
|
| 19 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 10:7 | 3 | 12 |
D
L
W
D
D
|
|
| 20 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 11:9 | 2 | 12 |
D
D
D
W
W
|
|
| 21 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13:15 | -2 | 11 |
W
D
L
W
L
|
|
| 22 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:15 | -3 | 10 |
W
L
D
W
L
|
|
| 23 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12:16 | -4 | 10 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 24 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 9:11 | -2 | 9 |
L
D
L
D
D
|
|
| 25 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 10:16 | -6 | 9 |
L
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 26 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5:11 | -6 | 7 |
W
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 27 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9:16 | -7 | 7 |
D
L
W
L
L
|
|
| 28 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6:14 | -8 | 7 |
D
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 29 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11:15 | -4 | 6 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 30 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 9:13 | -4 | 6 |
L
L
L
L
W
|
|
| 31 | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10:15 | -5 | 6 |
L
W
L
L
W
|
|
| 32 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 5:14 | -9 | 4 |
L
W
L
D
L
|
|
| 33 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7:15 | -8 | 3 |
L
W
L
L
L
|
|
| 34 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5:15 | -10 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
D
|
|
| 35 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 4:15 | -11 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
L
|
|
| 36 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 2:22 | -20 | 1 |
L
L
L
L
L
|