WORLD UEFA EUROPA LEAGUE
30.04.2026 19:00
City Ground
Referee: Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal
Nottingham Forest
Match Timeline
Aston Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
55'
A. Onana ↔ L. Bogarde
Aston Villa
VAR
69'
Omari Hutchinson
Nottingham Forest
71'
C. Wood
Nottingham Forest
🔄
75'
O. Aina ↔ Z. Abbott
Nottingham Forest
🟨
78'
Youri Tielemans
Aston Villa
🔄
78'
L. Digne ↔ Douglas Luiz
Aston Villa
🔄
79'
E. Buendia ↔ I. Maatsen
Aston Villa
🔄
79'
J. McGinn ↔ J. Sancho
Aston Villa
🔄
90'
Igor Jesus ↔ R. Yates
Nottingham Forest

Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 52.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 77.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 74.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
52.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
77.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
74.5%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
90.6%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nottingham Forest Win 30.2%
Draw 17.3%
Aston Villa Win 52.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nottingham Forest1.26
Aston Villa1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest
WWDLW
67 GF / 60 GA
Aston Villa Aston Villa
WLDWL
74 GF / 53 GA
Key Stats
1.37
Average Goals Scored
1.54
1.22
Average Goals Conceded
1.1
21
BTTS Yes
25
27
Over 2.5
24
4.8
Shots on Goal
4.58

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nottingham Forest Nottingham Forest 49 matches
Aston Villa Aston Villa 48 matches
Nottingham Forest Statistic Aston Villa
17 Wins 29
13 Draws 7
19 Losses 12
67 Goals For 74
60 Goals Against 53
1.37 Avg Goals Scored 1.54
1.22 Avg Goals Conceded 1.1
21 BTTS Yes 25
38 Over 1.5 35
27 Over 2.5 24
12 Over 3.5 13
15 Clean Sheets 16
17 Failed To Score 10
4.8 Shots On Goal 4.58
14.08 Total Shots 12.48
5.55 Corners 5.13
49.2% Ball Possession 53.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This tie brings together two sides with a fairly similar football identity, with the knockout context adding extra pressure to every phase of the game. Nottingham Forest appear more affected by absences, and that imbalance in squad availability could shift some of the structural advantage toward Aston Villa. Because this is a knockout setting, momentum shifts, risk management, and late-game discipline could all carry more weight than in a standard league fixture. Aston Villa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 21 points while Nottingham Forest sit 13 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Aston Villa. Aston Villa look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nottingham Forest Analysis

Nottingham Forest enter this tie with a season profile built on 14 points from 8 matches, placing them 13 in their league. Their record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 defeats with goals at 15:7 reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking weight falls on Igor Jesus (7 goals), Morgan Gibbs-White (3 goals), Ryan Yates (3 goals), with creative support from Morgan Gibbs-White (3 assists), Ryan Yates (3 assists), Igor Jesus (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with W. Boly, T. Awoniyi, Cunha unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Aston Villa Analysis

Aston Villa come into this tie placed 2 in their league with 21 points from 8 matches. The return of 7 wins, 0 draws, and 1 defeats, together with a 14:6 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking influence is driven by D. Malen (4 goals), O. Watkins (4 goals), J. McGinn (3 goals), with creative support from E. Buendia (4 assists), Morgan Rogers (3 assists), Y. Tielemans (3 assists), and at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, the return of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football identity still points toward balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with Alysson, B. Kamara, B. Madjo unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nottingham Forest won 3 times, Aston Villa won 8 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 18:29 from Nottingham Forest's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 3.36 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (82.8%)
Predicted formations: Nottingham Forest 4-2-3-1 / Aston Villa 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Nottingham Forest 9, Aston Villa 5
H2H summary: Nottingham Forest wins 3, draws 3, Aston Villa wins 8

Standings

UEFA Europa League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 8 7 0 1 18:5 13 21
W W W W L
2 8 7 0 1 14:6 8 21
W W W W W
3 8 6 1 1 18:8 10 19
W D W L W
4 8 5 2 1 13:7 6 17
W L W W W
5 8 5 2 1 13:7 6 17
W D W W D
6 8 5 2 1 11:5 6 17
D W W D L
7 8 5 2 1 10:4 6 17
L W W D W
8 8 5 1 2 13:6 7 16
D W W W W
9 8 5 1 2 11:7 4 16
W W L W W
10 8 4 3 1 14:7 7 15
W D W W D
11 8 5 0 3 15:9 6 15
W L W W W
12 8 4 3 1 12:11 1 15
L D W D W
13 8 4 2 2 15:7 8 14
W L W W D
14 8 3 5 0 8:3 5 14
W D D D D
15 8 4 2 2 7:6 1 14
D W W W W
16 8 4 1 3 15:11 4 13
D W L L W
17 8 3 3 2 17:14 3 12
L W D D W
18 8 4 0 4 12:9 3 12
W L L W L
19 8 3 3 2 10:7 3 12
D L W D D
20 8 3 3 2 11:9 2 12
D D D W W
21 8 3 2 3 13:15 -2 11
W D L W L
22 8 3 1 4 12:15 -3 10
W L D W L
23 8 3 1 4 12:16 -4 10
L W L L L
24 8 2 3 3 9:11 -2 9
L D L D D
25 8 3 0 5 10:16 -6 9
L L W L L
26 8 2 1 5 5:11 -6 7
W L L L D
27 8 2 1 5 9:16 -7 7
D L W L L
28 8 2 1 5 6:14 -8 7
D L L L L
29 8 2 0 6 11:15 -4 6
L W L L L
30 8 2 0 6 9:13 -4 6
L L L L W
31 8 2 0 6 10:15 -5 6
L W L L W
32 8 1 1 6 5:14 -9 4
L W L D L
33 8 1 0 7 7:15 -8 3
L W L L L
34 8 0 1 7 5:15 -10 1
L L L L D
35 8 0 1 7 4:15 -11 1
L L L L L
36 8 0 1 7 2:22 -20 1
L L L L L
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - Europa League (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)