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23.10.2026 16:00

Nõmme United vs Vaprus Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 87.4%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 82.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
87.4%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
82.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nõmme United Win 12.6%
Draw 53%
Vaprus Win 34.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nõmme United1.86
Vaprus1.93
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nõmme United Nõmme United
WWDLW
70 GF / 93 GA
Vaprus Vaprus
WLDWL
62 GF / 75 GA
Key Stats
1.79
Average Goals Scored
1.63
2.38
Average Goals Conceded
1.97
29
BTTS Yes
24
35
Over 2.5
26
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nõmme United Nõmme United 39 matches
Vaprus Vaprus 38 matches
Nõmme United Statistic Vaprus
14 Wins 12
2 Draws 7
23 Losses 19
70 Goals For 62
93 Goals Against 75
1.79 Avg Goals Scored 1.63
2.38 Avg Goals Conceded 1.97
29 BTTS Yes 24
37 Over 1.5 33
35 Over 2.5 26
23 Over 3.5 19
2 Clean Sheets 7
8 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Vaprus. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Vaprus having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances.

Nõmme United Analysis

With 28 points from 31 games and a place of 9, Nõmme United still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Their record of 9 wins, 1 draws, and 21 losses, together with goals at 47:74, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through their main attacking players, while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, the split record of 4 wins, 0 draws, and 11 losses points to a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Vaprus Analysis

Vaprus sit 7 with 36 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 10 wins, 6 draws, and 15 defeats, and the 43:61 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the split record of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 10 losses points to a weak split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Nõmme United won 3 times, Vaprus won 7 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:27 from Nõmme United's perspective. 8 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.91 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (87.4%)
H2H summary: Nõmme United wins 3, draws 1, Vaprus wins 7

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 32 25 6 1 87:22 65 81
W W W D W
2 32 19 1 12 62:44 18 58
W L L W W
3 32 17 6 9 52:39 13 57
W W L W W
4 32 15 6 11 54:33 21 51
L D L W W
5 32 15 2 15 42:51 -9 47
L L W L L
6 32 14 2 16 45:47 -2 44
W W W D W
7 32 10 6 16 43:63 -20 36
L D D L L
8 32 10 5 17 34:51 -17 35
L W W D L
9 32 10 1 21 50:74 -24 31
W L L L L
10 32 5 5 22 25:70 -45 20
L L D D L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga