FRANCE › LIGUE 1
17.05.2026 19:00
FT
0 - 0
Allianz Riviera
Referee: J. Pignard
Nice
Match Timeline
Metz
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
35'
Elye Wahi
Nice
🔄
46'
C. Vanhoutte ↔ H. Boudaoui
Nice
🔄
46'
K. Boudache ↔ M. Cho
Nice
🔄
65'
B. Munongo ↔ J. Gbamin
Metz
🔄
65'
B. Stambouli ↔ B. Traore
Metz
🔄
72'
S. Diop ↔ I. Jansson
Nice
🟨
73'
Boubacar Traoré
Metz
🟨
75'
Kojo Peprah Oppong
Nice
🔄
75'
G. Abuashvili ↔ J. Pandore
Metz
🔄
78'
J. Clauss ↔ Kevin
Nice
🔄
85'
A. Toure ↔ U. Mboula
Metz
🔄
87'
M. Sanson ↔ T. Louchet
Nice

Nice vs Metz Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 21.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
75.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
21.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
89.1%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 0-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Nice Win 44%
Draw 31.1%
Metz Win 24.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nice1.56
Metz1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nice Nice
WWDLW
52 GF / 83 GA
Metz Metz
WLDWL
35 GF / 80 GA
Key Stats
1.08
Average Goals Scored
1
1.73
Average Goals Conceded
2.29
28
BTTS Yes
17
25
Over 2.5
23
3.65
Shots on Goal
3.23

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nice Nice 48 matches
Metz Metz 35 matches
Nice Statistic Metz
11 Wins 4
12 Draws 7
25 Losses 24
52 Goals For 35
83 Goals Against 80
1.08 Avg Goals Scored 1
1.73 Avg Goals Conceded 2.29
28 BTTS Yes 17
38 Over 1.5 27
25 Over 2.5 23
17 Over 3.5 15
7 Clean Sheets 7
16 Failed To Score 15
3.65 Shots On Goal 3.23
11.15 Total Shots 10.11
5.21 Corners 4.2
45.9% Ball Possession 49.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Nice expected to line up in 5-4-1 and Metz in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Metz having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Metz arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Metz. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Nice Analysis

Nice sit 16 with 31 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 7 wins, 10 draws, and 16 defeats with a 37:60 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Sofiane Diop (8 goals), E. Wahi (5 goals), M. Cho (4 goals), with creative support from J. Clauss (6 assists), M. Cho (3 assists), Sofiane Diop (2 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Metz Analysis

Metz approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 18 with 16 points from 33 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 23 losses, together with goals at 32:76, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through G. Hein (8 goals), H. Diallo (4 goals), G. Tsitaishvili (3 goals), with creative support from G. Hein (7 assists), G. Tsitaishvili (2 assists), N. Mbala (2 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Nice won 6 times, Metz won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:12 from Nice's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.21 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (75.1%)
Predicted formations: Nice 5-4-1 / Metz 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Nice 4, Metz 6
H2H summary: Nice wins 6, draws 4, Metz wins 4

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16
Nice Home
34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18
Metz Away
34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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