ARGENTINA LIGA PROFESIONAL ARGENTINA
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Estadio Marcelo Bielsa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 58.2%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
58.2%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Newells Old Boys Win 29.2%
Draw 12.6%
Boca Juniors Win 58.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Newells Old Boys0.82
Boca Juniors1.41
Recent Form (Last 5)
Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys
WWDLW
16 GF / 29 GA
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors
WLDWL
37 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
0.89
Average Goals Scored
1.28
1.61
Average Goals Conceded
0.72
9
BTTS Yes
11
6
Over 2.5
10
3.47
Shots on Goal
4.71

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Newells Old Boys Newells Old Boys 18 matches
Boca Juniors Boca Juniors 29 matches
Newells Old Boys Statistic Boca Juniors
4 Wins 14
6 Draws 8
8 Losses 7
16 Goals For 37
29 Goals Against 21
0.89 Avg Goals Scored 1.28
1.61 Avg Goals Conceded 0.72
9 BTTS Yes 11
15 Over 1.5 19
6 Over 2.5 10
4 Over 3.5 2
3 Clean Sheets 14
7 Failed To Score 7
3.47 Shots On Goal 4.71
10.29 Total Shots 13.38
3.71 Corners 5.33
43.2% Ball Possession 59.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Boca Juniors's more proactive style and Newells Old Boys's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Boca Juniors. Boca Juniors carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 30 points while Newells Old Boys sit 14 on 15, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Newells Old Boys expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Boca Juniors in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Boca Juniors having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Newells Old Boys Analysis

With 15 points from 16 games and a place of 14, Newells Old Boys still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats with a 15:27 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Juan Ignacio Ramírez (3 goals), Jeronimo Russo (1 goals), Walter Mazzantti (1 goals), with creative support from Jeronimo Russo (2 assists), Walter Mazzantti (1 assists), Jerónimo Gómez Mattar (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Boca Juniors Analysis

Operating from 2 place with 30 points from 16 games, Boca Juniors bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses, with a 22:9 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Milton Giménez (4 goals), Adam Bareiro (3 goals), Alan Velasco (2 goals), with creative support from Miguel Merentiel (2 assists), Tomás Aranda (2 assists), Exequiel Zeballos (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 1 draws, and 2 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 14 head-to-head meetings, Newells Old Boys won 2 times, Boca Juniors won 9 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 8:21 from Newells Old Boys's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.07 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (87.4%)
Predicted formations: Newells Old Boys 4-2-3-1 / Boca Juniors 4-4-2
H2H summary: Newells Old Boys wins 2, draws 3, Boca Juniors wins 9
Last matches: Newells Old Boys
25.07.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Talleres Cordoba
1
0
W
04.05.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Velez Sarsfield
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Instituto Cordoba
1
1
D
17.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Union Santa Fe
3
2
W
12.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
05.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Central Cordoba de Santiago
3
1
W
29.03.26
Cop
Newells Old Boys
Acassuso
0
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Gimnasia M.
1
0
W
17.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Lanus
0
5
L
11.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Platense
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Rosario Central
0
2
L
25.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Estudiantes L.P.
0
2
L
21.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Banfield
0
3
L
16.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Deportivo Riestra
1
1
D
08.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Defensa Y Justicia
2
3
L
01.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
2
L
28.01.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
1
1
D
24.01.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Talleres Cordoba
1
2
L
Last matches: Boca Juniors
26.07.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Deportivo Riestra
0
3
L
17.07.26
Cop
Boca Juniors
Sarmiento Junin
2
0
W
09.07.26
Fri
Boca Juniors
Atletico Paranaense
1
0
W
29.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
0
1
L
20.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
1
1
D
09.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Huracan
2
3
L
06.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
23.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Defensa Y Justicia
4
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
River Plate
1
0
W
15.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
3
0
W
11.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Independiente
1
1
D
08.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Talleres Cordoba
1
0
W
22.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Instituto Cordoba
2
0
W
16.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Union Santa Fe
1
1
D
11.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo
1
1
D
05.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Lanus
3
0
W
28.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Gimnasia M.
1
1
D
H2H: Newells Old Boys vs Boca Juniors
01.02.26
H2H
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
2
0
L
05.10.25
H2H
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
5
0
L
30.03.25
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
2
0
W
09.12.24
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
06.04.24
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
1
3
L
12.11.23
H2H
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
1
0
L
24.07.23
H2H
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
2
1
L
16.10.22
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
2
0
W
30.11.21
H2H
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
0
0
D
22.02.21
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
29.11.20
H2H
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
2
0
L
09.11.20
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
2
L
26.04.20
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
0
D
28.09.19
H2H
Boca Juniors
Newells Old Boys
1
1
D
28.01.19
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
Last matches: Newells Old Boys
25.07.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Talleres Cordoba
1
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Instituto Cordoba
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
San Lorenzo
0
0
D
29.03.26
Cop
Newells Old Boys
Acassuso
0
2
L
21.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Gimnasia M.
1
0
W
11.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Platense
1
1
D
01.03.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Rosario Central
0
2
L
25.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Estudiantes L.P.
0
2
L
08.02.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Defensa Y Justicia
2
3
L
28.01.26
Lig
Newells Old Boys
Independiente
1
1
D
H2H at home: Newells Old Boys
30.03.25
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
2
0
W
09.12.24
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
06.04.24
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
1
3
L
16.10.22
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
2
0
W
22.02.21
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
1
L
09.11.20
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
2
L
26.04.20
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
0
D
28.01.19
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
1
1
D
Last matches: Boca Juniors
26.07.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Deportivo Riestra
0
3
L
17.07.26
Cop
Boca Juniors
Sarmiento Junin
2
0
W
06.05.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Barcelona SC
0
1
L
02.05.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Central Cordoba de Santiago
2
1
W
29.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
Cruzeiro
0
1
L
23.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Defensa Y Justicia
4
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
River Plate
1
0
W
08.04.26
CON
Boca Juniors
U. Catolica
2
1
W
02.04.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Talleres Cordoba
1
0
W
16.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Union Santa Fe
1
1
D
05.03.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Lanus
3
0
W
09.02.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Velez Sarsfield
1
2
L
29.01.26
Lig
Boca Juniors
Estudiantes L.P.
1
2
L
H2H away: Boca Juniors
30.03.25
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
2
0
L
09.12.24
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
1
W
06.04.24
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
1
3
W
16.10.22
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
2
0
L
22.02.21
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
1
W
09.11.20
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
2
W
26.04.20
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
0
0
D
28.01.19
H2H
Newells Old Boys
Boca Juniors
1
1
D

Standings

Apertura - Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 16 9 4 3 19:7 12 31
L L W D W
2 16 8 6 2 22:9 13 30
L L W W W
3 16 7 7 2 18:12 6 28
W L D D D
4 16 7 5 4 17:13 4 26
L L D D W
5 16 6 6 4 24:20 4 24
W L W L W
6 16 6 6 4 18:15 3 24
W L D D L
7 16 5 7 4 14:14 0 22
L L L W D
8 16 5 6 5 24:20 4 21
D L W D D
9 16 6 3 7 17:17 0 21
L W D L W
10 16 4 7 5 18:21 -3 19
D L L L L
11 16 5 4 7 14:22 -8 19
W W L W D
12 16 3 7 6 10:15 -5 16
D L L L D
13 16 4 4 8 11:21 -10 16
L L D W L
14 16 3 6 7 15:27 -12 15
W D D W D
15 16 1 8 7 5:12 -7 11
W D W L L
Knockout Phase