BRAZIL SERIE B
--.--.---- --:--
Estádio dos Aflitos
Referee: Afro Rocha De Carvalho Filho, Brazil
Nautico Recife
Live Timeline
Ceara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
38'
Derek
Nautico Recife

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 66.1%
Odds 1.28
0 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds 1.64
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
66.1%
1.28
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
1.64
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.83
HT / FT Draw / Draw
-
4.50
Correct Score 1-1
-
6.00
Probability Distribution
Nautico Recife Win 37.6%
Draw 28.5%
Ceara Win 33.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nautico Recife1.22
Ceara1.1
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nautico Recife Nautico Recife
WWDLW
26 GF / 26 GA
Ceara Ceara
WLDWL
23 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.05
1.18
Average Goals Conceded
1.27
9
BTTS Yes
11
8
Over 2.5
7
4.32
Shots on Goal
4.18

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nautico Recife Nautico Recife 22 matches
Ceara Ceara 22 matches
Nautico Recife Statistic Ceara
7 Wins 6
6 Draws 7
9 Losses 9
26 Goals For 23
26 Goals Against 28
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.05
1.18 Avg Goals Conceded 1.27
9 BTTS Yes 11
13 Over 1.5 16
8 Over 2.5 7
4 Over 3.5 3
6 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 8
4.32 Shots On Goal 4.18
15.73 Total Shots 13.55
5.82 Corners 5.59
58.4% Ball Possession 51.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Ceara. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Nautico Recife Analysis

With 26 points from 21 games and a place of 14, Nautico Recife still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 9 defeats with a 25:25 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Vinícius (4 goals), Kaua Almeida da Costa (3 goals), Dodô (2 goals), with creative support from Vinícius (2 assists), Jean Carlos (2 assists), Wenderson (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Ceara Analysis

With 25 points from 21 games and a place of 16, Ceara still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 8 defeats with a 22:25 goal balance points toward mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Melk (4 goals), Júlio César (2 goals), Lucas Lima (2 goals), with creative support from Melk (3 assists), Giulio (3 assists), Júlio César (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 4 draws, and 4 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Nautico Recife won 4 times, Ceara won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:10 from Nautico Recife's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.73 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (71.5%)
Predicted formations: Nautico Recife 4-2-3-1 / Ceara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Nautico Recife wins 4, draws 2, Ceara wins 5
Last matches: Nautico Recife
14.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
26.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
0
D
23.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
16.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
CRB
1
2
L
12.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Avai
0
2
L
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
20.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Vila Nova
3
4
L
14.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Novorizontino
2
2
D
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
30.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Sport Recife
0
2
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Operario-PR
6
2
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
02.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Botafogo SP
1
1
D
27.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Athletic Club
1
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
11.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
1
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
Last matches: Ceara
15.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
1
3
L
07.08.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
2
0
W
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
22.07.26
Ser
Ceara
CRB
0
1
L
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
13.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Athletic Club
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Botafogo SP
0
1
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
10.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Avai
2
1
W
31.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Operario-PR
1
2
L
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
17.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Fortaleza EC
2
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Atletico Goianiense
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
26.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Vila Nova
3
3
D
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
11.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
H2H: Nautico Recife vs Ceara
11.04.26
H2H
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
L
23.01.25
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
15.02.24
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
0
D
25.08.17
H2H
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
L
27.05.17
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
2
L
15.10.16
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
25.06.16
H2H
Ceara
Nautico Recife
2
1
L
07.09.15
H2H
Ceara
Nautico Recife
1
0
L
02.06.15
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
12.09.14
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
2
1
W
03.05.14
H2H
Ceara
Nautico Recife
2
2
D
Last matches: Nautico Recife
09.08.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Atletico Goianiense
1
1
D
23.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Londrina
2
1
W
05.07.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Juventude
0
0
D
28.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Goias
0
1
L
09.06.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Fortaleza EC
0
1
L
22.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Cuiaba
1
0
W
10.05.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
America Mineiro
4
0
W
18.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
São Bernardo
0
3
L
04.04.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Ponte Preta
1
0
W
22.03.26
Ser
Nautico Recife
Criciuma
0
1
L
H2H at home: Nautico Recife
23.01.25
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
15.02.24
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
0
D
27.05.17
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
2
L
15.10.16
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
W
02.06.15
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
2
0
W
12.09.14
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
2
1
W
Last matches: Ceara
26.07.26
Ser
Ceara
São Bernardo
4
3
W
17.07.26
Ser
Ceara
America Mineiro
1
1
D
04.07.26
Ser
Ceara
Goias
0
2
L
28.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Juventude
0
2
L
16.06.26
Ser
Ceara
Criciuma
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Novorizontino
1
2
L
03.05.26
Ser
Ceara
Sport Recife
0
2
L
19.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Londrina
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Cuiaba
2
0
W
02.04.26
Ser
Ceara
Ponte Preta
1
1
D
H2H away: Ceara
23.01.25
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
L
15.02.24
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
0
D
27.05.17
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
0
2
W
15.10.16
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
1
0
L
02.06.15
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
2
0
L
12.09.14
H2H
Nautico Recife
Ceara
2
1
L
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.96
Draw 3.02
Home 2.20
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.66
Draw 2.05
Home 2.91
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 1.75 1.51
Over 2.0 1.69
Over 2.25 2.02
Over 2.5 2.33
Over 2.75 2.74
Over 3.5 4.29
Under 1.5 3.02
Under 1.75 2.64
Under 2.0 2.23
Under 2.25 1.85
Under 2.5 1.64
Under 2.75 1.48
Under 3.5 1.23
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 3.10
Home 2.15
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.33
Draw 2.05
Home 2.88
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.60
Draw 2.25
Home 2.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.08
Over 1.5 1.40
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 3.5 4.00
Over 4.5 10.00
Over 5.5 21.00
Over 6.5 41.00
Under 0.5 7.50
Under 1.5 2.75
Under 2.5 1.62
Under 3.5 1.22
Under 4.5 1.06
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.74
Draw 2.93
Home 2.15
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 4.74
Draw 1.86
Home 2.85
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 4.04
Draw 2.25
Home 2.45
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 0.75 1.07
Over 1.0 1.09
Over 1.25 1.23
Over 1.5 1.36
Over 1.75 1.48
Over 2.0 1.65
Over 2.25 1.97
Over 2.5 2.25
Over 2.75 2.55
Over 3.0 3.24
Over 3.25 3.52
Over 3.5 3.88
Over 3.75 4.90
Over 4.0 7.10
Over 4.25 7.40
Over 4.5 7.80
Over 5.5 23.00
Over 6.5 50.00
Under 0.5 6.55
Under 0.75 5.95
Under 1.0 5.40
Under 1.25 3.42
Under 1.5 2.70
Under 1.75 2.39
Under 2.0 2.04
Under 2.25 1.79
Under 2.5 1.61
Under 2.75 1.42
Under 3.0 1.27
Under 3.25 1.22
Under 3.5 1.18
Under 3.75 1.11
Under 4.0 1.04
Under 4.25 1.03
Under 4.5 1.02
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 3.50
Draw 3.10
Home 2.16
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 3.95
Draw 2.08
Home 2.80
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 3.55
Draw 2.43
Home 2.48
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.05
Over 1.5 1.33
Over 1.75 1.43
Over 2.0 1.58
Over 2.25 1.85
Over 2.5 2.12
Over 2.75 2.45
Over 3.0 3.05
Over 3.25 3.40
Over 3.5 3.80
Over 4.5 7.50
Under 0.5 8.00
Under 1.5 3.10
Under 1.75 2.70
Under 2.0 2.30
Under 2.25 1.90
Under 2.5 1.68
Under 2.75 1.52
Under 3.0 1.35
Under 3.25 1.29
Under 3.5 1.24
Under 4.5 1.06

Standings

Serie B
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 24:14 10 43
W L D W W
2 22 11 6 5 23:12 11 39
D W W L W
3 22 11 4 7 29:25 4 37
W L L W L
4 22 10 6 6 24:20 4 36
D D W L W
5 22 10 5 7 30:30 0 35
L L L W D
6 22 8 11 3 28:20 8 35
W W D D D
7 22 9 7 6 32:20 12 34
D L W L L
8 22 8 10 4 24:19 5 34
W W D W D
9 22 9 6 7 32:32 0 33
D W W W W
10 22 9 5 8 22:27 -5 32
L W L D W
11 22 8 8 6 24:23 1 32
L D W W D
12 22 8 6 8 31:25 6 30
L W L L D
13 22 8 6 8 27:22 5 30
W W L W D
14 22 6 11 5 19:17 2 29
W D D L L
15 22 7 6 9 26:26 0 27
D D D W L
16
Ceara Away
22 6 7 9 23:28 -5 25
L W W L D
17 22 6 5 11 23:29 -6 23
W L L W D
18 22 5 5 12 28:34 -6 20
L L L L D
19 22 2 5 15 16:36 -20 11
L L W L D
20 22 2 4 16 16:42 -26 10
D L D L L
Promotion
Promotion Play-offs
Relegation