JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Toyota Stadium
Referee: H. Kimura
Nagoya Grampus
Match Timeline
Machida Zelvia
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
6'
H. Nakamura · Assist: Y. Soma
Machida Zelvia
10'
Y. Kimura · Assist: T. Morishima
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
21'
Hotaka Nakamura
Machida Zelvia
🟨
31'
Hiroyuki Mae
Machida Zelvia
VAR
64'
Yuya Asano
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
75'
Y. Yamagishi ↔ K. Nagai
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
75'
K. Nakayama ↔ H. Koda
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
75'
N. Lavi ↔ R. Shirasaki
Machida Zelvia
🔄
75'
S. Fujio ↔ K. Kuwayama
Machida Zelvia
🟨
78'
Erik
Machida Zelvia
78'
Erik · Assist: K. Hayashi
Machida Zelvia
🔄
84'
Erik ↔ K. Sento
Machida Zelvia
🔄
84'
Y. Soma ↔ F. Tokumura
Machida Zelvia
🔄
86'
R. Izumi ↔ T. Kikuchi
Nagoya Grampus
🔄
87'
Y. Nogami ↔ K. Mikuni
Nagoya Grampus
🟨
90'
Gen Shoji
Machida Zelvia
🔄
90+4'
H. Nakamura ↔ H. Mochizuki
Machida Zelvia
90'
T. Takamine · Assist: H. Fujii
Nagoya Grampus

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 60.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 30.4%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
60.8%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
30.4%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nagoya Grampus Win 60.8%
Draw 0%
Machida Zelvia Win 39.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nagoya Grampus1.5
Machida Zelvia1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WWDLW
31 GF / 28 GA
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
WLDWL
25 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
1.72
Average Goals Scored
1.32
1.56
Average Goals Conceded
1.16
12
BTTS Yes
10
12
Over 2.5
9
4.67
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 18 matches
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia 19 matches
Nagoya Grampus Statistic Machida Zelvia
8 Wins 8
5 Draws 8
5 Losses 3
31 Goals For 25
28 Goals Against 22
1.72 Avg Goals Scored 1.32
1.56 Avg Goals Conceded 1.16
12 BTTS Yes 10
16 Over 1.5 14
12 Over 2.5 9
6 Over 3.5 5
5 Clean Sheets 7
2 Failed To Score 4
4.67 Shots On Goal 3.67
13.56 Total Shots 11.67
5.28 Corners 4.17
52.2% Ball Possession 44.1%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Machida Zelvia look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Machida Zelvia. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Nagoya Grampus come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 31 points after 18 matches. They have recorded 10 wins, 0 draws, and 8 losses, with a 33:31 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on Y. Yamagishi (10 goals), Y. Kimura (8 goals), Hidemasa Koda (2 goals), with creative support from K. Nakayama (7 assists), Teruki Hara (3 assists), Y. Kimura (2 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, they have managed 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

Machida Zelvia Analysis

Machida Zelvia come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 37 points after 18 matches. The return of 13 wins, 0 draws, and 5 defeats, together with goals at 28:22, reflects very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking edge comes through Erik (7 goals), Y. Soma (4 goals), Na Sang-Ho (3 goals), with creative support from Y. Soma (2 assists), Na Sang-Ho (2 assists), H. Shimoda (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 6 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 9 head-to-head meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 2 times, Machida Zelvia won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 11:16 from Nagoya Grampus's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1 / Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nagoya Grampus wins 2, draws 1, Machida Zelvia wins 6
Stats
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia Machida Zelvia
Shots on Goal
7
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
2
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
7
1 Corner Kicks 2
7 Fouls 13
2 Offsides 2
58% Ball Possession 42%
12 Total Shots 17
7 Shots on Goal 8
4 Shots off Goal 2
1 Blocked Shots 7
6 Shots insidebox 9
6 Shots outsidebox 8
6 Goalkeeper Saves 5
530 Total passes 387
465 Passes accurate 320
1.32 expected_goals 2.04
🟨 0 Yellow Cards 4 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Nagoya Grampus
Formation
Machida Zelvia
A. Pisano
A. Pisano
Y. Nogami
Y. Nogami
H. Fujii
🎯
H. Fujii
Y. Sato
Y. Sato
Y. Asano
Y. Asano
T. Morishima
🎯
T. Morishima
T. Takamine
T. Takamine
K. Nakayama
K. Nakayama
R. Izumi
R. Izumi
Y. Kimura
Y. Kimura
Y. Yamagishi
Y. Yamagishi
K. Tani
K. Tani
G. Shoji
G. Shoji
D. Okamura
D. Okamura
Y. Nakayama
Y. Nakayama
H. Nakamura
H. Nakamura
N. Lavi
N. Lavi
H. Mae
H. Mae
K. Hayashi
🎯
K. Hayashi
Erik
Erik
Y. Soma
🎯
Y. Soma
S. Fujio
S. Fujio
Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
35
A. Pisano
G
2
Y. Nogami
↓ 87'
D
13
H. Fujii
🎯 90'
D
3
Y. Sato
D
9
Y. Asano
M
14
T. Morishima
🎯 10'
M
31
T. Takamine
⚽ 90'
M
27
K. Nakayama
↓ 75'
M
7
R. Izumi
↓ 86'
F
22
Y. Kimura
⚽ 10'
F
11
Y. Yamagishi
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
36
H. Hagi
G
18
K. Nagai
↑ 75'
F
17
T. Uchida
M
41
M. Ono
M
44
S. Mori
D
20
K. Mikuni
↑ 87'
D
33
T. Kikuchi
↑ 86'
M
19
H. Koda
↑ 75'
M
30
S. Sugiura
F
Machida Zelvia 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
1
K. Tani
G
3
G. Shoji
🟨 90'
D
50
D. Okamura
D
19
Y. Nakayama
D
88
H. Nakamura
⚽ 6' ↓ 90+4' 🟨 21'
M
31
N. Lavi
↓ 75'
M
16
H. Mae
🟨 31'
M
26
K. Hayashi
🎯 78'
M
27
Erik
⚽ 78' ↓ 84' 🟨 78'
F
7
Y. Soma
🎯 6' ↓ 84'
F
9
S. Fujio
↓ 75'
F
Substitutes
13
T. Morita
G
23
R. Shirasaki
↑ 75'
M
18
H. Shimoda
M
11
A. Masuyama
M
8
K. Sento
↑ 84'
M
34
F. Tokumura
↑ 84'
F
49
K. Kuwayama
↑ 75'
F
5
I. Dresevic
D
6
H. Mochizuki
↑ 90+4'
D
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
06.06.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
23.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
4
L
17.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
1
6
L
10.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
03.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
25.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
2
0
W
19.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
2
3
L
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
22.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
07.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
5
1
W
01.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
15.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
0
0
D
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
Last matches: Machida Zelvia
06.06.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
W
22.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Urawa
1
0
W
17.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kawasaki Frontale
1
1
D
13.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Tokyo Verdy
0
0
D
10.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
0
W
03.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Mito Hollyhock
2
2
D
11.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
05.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
0
0
D
01.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
0
3
L
28.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kawasaki Frontale
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Urawa
2
1
W
18.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
0
3
L
14.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
27.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
21.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Tokyo Verdy
2
2
D
14.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Mito Hollyhock
2
2
D
06.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
2
W
15.01.26
Fri
Machida Zelvia
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
H2H: Nagoya Grampus vs Machida Zelvia
06.06.26
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
2
1
L
30.05.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
30.11.25
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
3
1
L
02.03.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
06.07.24
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
1
0
L
02.03.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
0
1
L
16.08.17
H2H
Machida Zelvia
Nagoya Grampus
3
4
W
17.05.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
1
W
09.09.15
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
0
1
L
Last matches: Nagoya Grampus
10.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Kyoto Sanga
3
0
W
06.05.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Gamba Osaka
2
1
W
29.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Fagiano Okayama
1
1
D
19.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
04.04.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
3
0
W
18.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Sanfrecce Hiroshima
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Vissel Kobe
0
3
L
21.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
V-varen Nagasaki
1
3
L
08.02.26
J1
Nagoya Grampus
Shimizu S-pulse
1
0
W
H2H at home: Nagoya Grampus
30.05.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
02.03.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
02.03.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
0
1
L
17.05.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
1
W
09.09.15
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
0
1
L
Last matches: Machida Zelvia
17.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kawasaki Frontale
1
1
D
10.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
JEF United Chiba
2
0
W
03.05.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashima
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Mito Hollyhock
2
2
D
05.04.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
FC Tokyo
0
0
D
22.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Urawa
2
1
W
14.03.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
21.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Tokyo Verdy
2
2
D
06.02.26
J1
Machida Zelvia
Yokohama F. Marinos
3
2
W
15.01.26
Fri
Machida Zelvia
Gamba Osaka
2
3
L
H2H away: Machida Zelvia
30.05.26
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
2
D
02.03.25
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
1
2
W
02.03.24
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
0
1
W
17.05.17
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
2
1
L
09.09.15
H2H
Nagoya Grampus
Machida Zelvia
0
1
W

Standings

West
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 11 0 7 29:25 4 35
?
2 18 11 0 7 30:21 9 31
?
3 18 10 0 8 33:31 2 31
?
4 18 10 0 8 31:23 8 30
?
5 18 10 0 8 31:25 6 28
?
6 18 8 0 10 26:29 -3 26
?
7 18 8 0 10 23:25 -2 24
?
8 18 8 0 10 22:28 -6 23
?
9 18 7 0 11 21:29 -8 21
?
10 18 7 0 11 21:31 -10 21
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)