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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
21.10.2026 10:00
Toyota Stadium

Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.8%
Odds 2.43
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds 1.57
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.68
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.8%
2.43 ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
1.57 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.68 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
3.75 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
9.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Nagoya Grampus Win 56.8%
Draw 7.2%
Cerezo Osaka Win 36%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nagoya Grampus1.36
Cerezo Osaka1.18
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus
WWDLW
12 GF / 16 GA
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka
WLDWL
9 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
1.2
Average Goals Scored
0.9
1.6
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
6
BTTS Yes
4
7
Over 2.5
4
3.8
Shots on Goal
3.2

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nagoya Grampus Nagoya Grampus 10 matches
Cerezo Osaka Cerezo Osaka 10 matches
Nagoya Grampus Statistic Cerezo Osaka
4 Wins 3
0 Draws 3
6 Losses 4
12 Goals For 9
16 Goals Against 16
1.2 Avg Goals Scored 0.9
1.6 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
6 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 6
7 Over 2.5 4
3 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 4
4 Failed To Score 4
3.8 Shots On Goal 3.2
13.3 Total Shots 11.9
5 Corners 5.6
57.1% Ball Possession 54.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Cerezo Osaka. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Nagoya Grampus have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Nagoya Grampus Analysis

Nagoya Grampus approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 9 points from 9 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, together with goals at 9:15, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Y. Asano (1 goals), Y. Kimura (1 goals), H. Fujii (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Asano (1 assists), R. Izumi (1 assists), T. Morishima (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Cerezo Osaka Analysis

Cerezo Osaka sit 12 with 12 points after 9 league matches. The record of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 7:12 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through S. Sakuragawa (3 goals), Thiago Andrade (1 goals), Lucas Fernandes (1 goals), with creative support from S. Kagawa (2 assists), J. Irvine (1 assists), H. Okuda (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 0 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nagoya Grampus won 8 times, Cerezo Osaka won 6 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 21:22 from Nagoya Grampus's perspective. 10 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (92.8%)
Predicted formations: Nagoya Grampus 3-4-2-1 / Cerezo Osaka 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Nagoya Grampus wins 8, draws 1, Cerezo Osaka wins 6

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 25:10 15 23
W W L D W
3 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
4 10 7 1 2 17:9 8 22
W L W W W
5 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
6 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 10 4 1 5 12:15 -3 13
L L L W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 10 2 1 7 11:16 -5 7
L W L L D
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League