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18.10.2026 19:00
Estadio Victor Agustín Ugarte

Nacional Potosí vs Bolívar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 63.4%
Odds 1.67
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.44
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
63.4%
1.67 ▥
BTTS Yes
75%
1.44 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.44 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.34 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Nacional Potosí Win 33.2%
Draw 3.4%
Bolívar Win 63.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional Potosí1.31
Bolívar1.92
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional Potosí Nacional Potosí
WWDLW
36 GF / 37 GA
Bolívar Bolívar
WLDWL
62 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
2.21
1.48
Average Goals Conceded
1.11
13
BTTS Yes
19
14
Over 2.5
17
3.57
Shots on Goal
5.26

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional Potosí Nacional Potosí 25 matches
Bolívar Bolívar 28 matches
Nacional Potosí Statistic Bolívar
10 Wins 16
4 Draws 6
11 Losses 6
36 Goals For 62
37 Goals Against 31
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 2.21
1.48 Avg Goals Conceded 1.11
13 BTTS Yes 19
22 Over 1.5 24
14 Over 2.5 17
7 Over 3.5 11
8 Clean Sheets 7
4 Failed To Score 3
3.57 Shots On Goal 5.26
9.61 Total Shots 13.33
2.78 Corners 4.07
38% Ball Possession 43.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Bolívar. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Bolívar look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Bolívar carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 45 points while Nacional Potosí sit 9 on 27, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Nacional Potosí Analysis

Nacional Potosí are currently 9 in the standings with 27 points from 20 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 3 draws, and 9 losses, while the 30:28 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on T. Tobar (2 goals), D. Villalba (2 goals), A. Torrico (1 goals), with creative support from M. Núñez (3 assists), D. Pinto (2 assists), A. Torrico (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Bolívar Analysis

Bolívar come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 45 points after 20 matches. With 14 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 54:22, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by M. Cauteruccio (5 goals), D. Romero (5 goals), D. Asprilla (3 goals), with creative support from C. Melgar (5 assists), M. Cauteruccio (2 assists), R. Matheus (2 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, their record of 6 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Nacional Potosí won 5 times, Bolívar won 7 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 29:33 from Nacional Potosí's perspective. 11 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 13 matches, with an average of 4.13 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.6%)
Predicted formations: Nacional Potosí 4-4-2 / Bolívar 4-4-2
H2H summary: Nacional Potosí wins 5, draws 3, Bolívar wins 7

Standings

Primera División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 21 14 6 1 49:13 36 48
W W W W D
2 21 15 3 3 55:22 33 48
W W W W W
3 21 12 6 3 39:23 16 42
L W W W W
4 21 9 8 4 28:14 14 35
W W W D L
5 21 10 3 8 37:27 10 33
W W L L D
6 21 7 10 4 33:29 4 31
D L W W D
7 21 8 5 8 33:43 -10 29
L W L D L
8 21 8 4 9 32:30 2 28
D L W W L
9 21 6 9 6 30:23 7 27
L D W L D
10 21 7 4 10 27:37 -10 25
L L L L W
11 21 7 3 11 35:51 -16 24
W L L W D
12 21 6 3 12 21:40 -19 21
D W L L L
13 21 6 2 13 31:46 -15 20
L L L W L
14 21 5 3 13 27:42 -15 18
L D W L W
15 21 3 8 10 25:38 -13 17
W L L L D
16 21 4 5 12 15:39 -24 17
D L L L W