BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Nacional AM
Match Timeline
Monte Roraima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
Caio Mancha
Nacional AM
20'
Rafa Marcos
Nacional AM
25'
Erick Varao
Nacional AM
51'
Matheus Taumaturgo
Monte Roraima

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 80.5%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
80.5%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Nacional AM Win 43.3%
Draw 19.5%
Monte Roraima Win 37.2%
Expected Goals (xG)
Nacional AM1.29
Monte Roraima1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Nacional AM Nacional AM
WWDLW
12 GF / 8 GA
Monte Roraima Monte Roraima
WLDWL
10 GF / 11 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.11
0.89
Average Goals Conceded
1.22
3
BTTS Yes
4
2
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Nacional AM Nacional AM 9 matches
Monte Roraima Monte Roraima 9 matches
Nacional AM Statistic Monte Roraima
5 Wins 2
2 Draws 4
2 Losses 3
12 Goals For 10
8 Goals Against 11
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.11
0.89 Avg Goals Conceded 1.22
3 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 6
2 Over 2.5 3
2 Over 3.5 3
5 Clean Sheets 2
2 Failed To Score 4
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Nacional AM's more proactive style and Monte Roraima's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Monte Roraima. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Monte Roraima having the stronger overall control. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Nacional AM arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 17 points compared to Monte Roraima in 4 on 10, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Nacional AM Analysis

Placed 2 with 17 points from 9 outings, Nacional AM continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Their overall return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 12:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Anderson Alagoano (2 goals), Caio Mancha (2 goals), Ryan Luka (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. At home, their split return of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Monte Roraima Analysis

Monte Roraima arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 10 points after 9 matches. Their overall return of 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses with goals at 10:11 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Luquinhas (3 goals), Matheus Taumaturgo (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (80.5%)
Last matches: Nacional AM
04.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
1
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
1
1
D
23.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
1
0
W
16.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
0
1
L
10.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
25.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
2
4
L
19.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
2
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Monte Roraima
1
0
W
Last matches: Monte Roraima
28.06.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Guaporé
0
2
L
20.06.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Guaporé
3
2
W
31.05.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Manauara
0
1
L
24.05.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Sao Raimundo
2
2
D
16.05.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
GAS
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Manaus FC
2
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Manaus FC
2
2
D
26.04.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
GAS
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Sao Raimundo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Manauara
0
2
L
04.04.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Nacional AM
0
1
L
Last matches: Nacional AM
04.07.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Araguaína
0
0
D
16.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manauara
0
1
L
03.05.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Sao Raimundo
0
0
D
19.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
GAS
3
2
W
12.04.26
Ser
Nacional AM
Manaus FC
2
0
W
Last matches: Monte Roraima
28.06.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Guaporé
0
2
L
16.05.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
GAS
3
2
W
09.05.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Manaus FC
2
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Sao Raimundo
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Monte Roraima
Manauara
0
2
L

Standings

Group 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 13:5 8 22
W W D W D
2 10 6 2 2 15:9 6 20
W D W L W
3 10 3 4 3 10:7 3 13
L W D L L
4 10 2 4 4 11:14 -3 10
L L D W W
5 10 2 4 4 8:13 -5 10
L D D W L
6 10 1 2 7 8:17 -9 5
W L L L D
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)