ECUADOR LIGA PRO
08.09.2026 00:00
Estadio Bellavista
Referee: O. Contreras
Mushuc Runa SC
Match Timeline
Leones del Norte
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
7'
Cristhian Solano
Leones del Norte
VAR
20'
Alex Ibarra
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
21'
Patricio Madero
Leones del Norte
22'
Alex Ibarra
Mushuc Runa SC
🟨
31'
Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio
Leones del Norte
🔄
45'
Miguel Yordan Caicedo Orobio ↔ Segundo Portocarrero
Leones del Norte
🔄
64'
Dario Pazmino ↔ A Aguas
Leones del Norte
🔄
64'
Elian Pepinos ↔ Thomas Amilivia
Leones del Norte
🔄
73'
Nazareno Bazán ↔ Elian Caicedo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
73'
Miguel Perea ↔ Bryan Corozo
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
73'
Tomson Minda ↔ Freddy Mina
Mushuc Runa SC
🔄
74'
T. Coppo ↔ O. Cabeza
Leones del Norte

Mushuc Runa SC vs Leones del Norte Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 56%
Odds 3.84
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.2%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.32
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
56%
3.84
BTTS Yes
58.2%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.32
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.2%
1.23
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00
Probability Distribution
Mushuc Runa SC Win 33.9%
Draw 10.1%
Leones del Norte Win 56%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mushuc Runa SC1.14
Leones del Norte1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC
WWDLW
33 GF / 34 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
30 GF / 30 GA
Key Stats
1.18
Average Goals Scored
1.07
1.21
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
15
BTTS Yes
13
14
Over 2.5
10
3.61
Shots on Goal
4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mushuc Runa SC Mushuc Runa SC 28 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 28 matches
Mushuc Runa SC Statistic Leones del Norte
9 Wins 10
10 Draws 8
9 Losses 10
33 Goals For 30
34 Goals Against 30
1.18 Avg Goals Scored 1.07
1.21 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
15 BTTS Yes 13
18 Over 1.5 20
14 Over 2.5 10
9 Over 3.5 3
11 Clean Sheets 10
8 Failed To Score 7
3.61 Shots On Goal 4
12.32 Total Shots 12.46
4.86 Corners 4.14
48.6% Ball Possession 46.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mushuc Runa SC expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Leones del Norte in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Leones del Norte having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Leones del Norte. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mushuc Runa SC Analysis

Mushuc Runa SC sit 8 with 36 points after 27 league matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 9 draws, and 9 losses, while the 33:34 goal ratio supports the view of good form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Ronie Carrillo (6 goals), Renato Ibarra (4 goals), Cristopher Angulo (3 goals), with creative support from Nicolás Dávila (3 assists), Renato Ibarra (2 assists), Kevin Velasco (2 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, the record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 3 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

From their first 26 matches, Leones del Norte have collected 35 points and now occupy 10 place in the table. The record of 9 wins, 8 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 28:28 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Mushuc Runa SC won 0 times, Leones del Norte won 1 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Mushuc Runa SC's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (89.9%)
Predicted formations: Mushuc Runa SC 4-4-2 / Leones del Norte 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mushuc Runa SC wins 0, draws 1, Leones del Norte wins 1

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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