PORTUGAL › PRIMEIRA LIGA

14.09.2026 19:15

Moreirense

Maritimo

Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

Moreirense vs Maritimo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2

Home Win

Probability 58%

Odds 2.47

BTTS

Yes

Probability 78.8%

Odds 1.95

Over / Under 2.5

Over 2.5

Probability 82.2%

Odds 2.32

All Markets

Market	Option	Probability	Odds	Stats & Analysis
1X2	Home Win	58%	2.47	▥
BTTS	Yes	78.8%	1.95	▥
Over / Under 2.5	Over 2.5	82.2%	2.32	▥
Corners O/U	Under 11.5 Corners	87.8%	1.11	▥
HT / FT	Home / Home	-	4.00	▥
Correct Score	2-1	-	10.00	▥

Probability Distribution

Moreirense Win 58%

Draw 5.7%

Maritimo Win 36.2%

Expected Goals (xG)

Moreirense1.26

Maritimo1.45

Recent Form (Last 5)

Moreirense

WWDLW

12 GF / 20 GA

Maritimo

WLDWL

12 GF / 15 GA

Key Stats

1.2

Average Goals Scored

1.09

Average Goals Conceded

1.36

BTTS Yes

Over 2.5

2.4

Shots on Goal

3.4

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Moreirense 10 matches

Maritimo 11 matches

Moreirense	Statistic	Maritimo
2	Wins	4
3	Draws	3
5	Losses	4
12	Goals For	12
20	Goals Against	15
1.2	Avg Goals Scored	1.09
2	Avg Goals Conceded	1.36
6	BTTS Yes	5
9	Over 1.5	8
8	Over 2.5	5
5	Over 3.5	2
2	Clean Sheets	4
2	Failed To Score	3
2.4	Shots On Goal	3.4
6.6	Total Shots	10.8
2.4	Corners	2.6
35.6%	Ball Possession	42.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Moreirense won 5 times, Maritimo won 6 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:18 from Moreirense's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win

BTTS: Yes

Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5

Highest model probability: 12 (94.3%)

Predicted formations: Moreirense 4-2-3-1 / Maritimo 4-2-3-1

H2H summary: Moreirense wins 5, draws 4, Maritimo wins 6

Standings

Primeira Liga

#	Team	MP	W	D	L	G	GD	PTS	Form
1	FC Porto	6	6	0	0	15:2	13	18	W W W W W
2	Benfica	5	4	1	0	18:3	15	13	W W W W D
3	Sporting CP	5	4	1	0	14:5	9	13	W W W W D
4	Santa Clara	5	3	2	0	9:3	6	11	W D W W D
5	Arouca	5	3	1	1	7:3	4	10	D W L W W
6	Estrela	5	2	3	0	11:9	2	9	W D W D D
7	Academico Viseu	6	2	2	2	7:9	-2	8	W W L D L
8	GIL Vicente	4	2	1	1	3:1	2	7	L D W W
9	SC Braga	4	2	1	1	6:5	1	7	L W W D
10	Maritimo Away	5	2	1	2	6:8	-2	7	L L D W W
11	Alverca	6	1	2	3	8:11	-3	5	W L D L D
12	Vitória SC	6	1	1	4	4:7	-3	4	L D L W L
13	Nacional	6	1	1	4	7:11	-4	4	L L L L W
14	Moreirense Home	5	1	1	3	4:12	-8	4	L L W L D
15	Famalicao	5	0	3	2	4:6	-2	3	D D L L D
16	Rio Ave	5	1	0	4	2:11	-9	3	L L W L L
17	Estoril	5	0	2	3	2:7	-5	2	D L L L D
18	Casa Pia	6	0	1	5	1:15	-14	1	L D L L L