Login Register
BRAZIL › SERIE A
30.08.2026 21:30
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: Joao Vitor Gobi, Brazil
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Palmeiras
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
-5'
Neto Moura
Mirassol
⚽
50'
Eduardo · Assist: Igor Formiga
Mirassol
🔄
69'
Neto Moura ↔ Japa
Mirassol
🔄
70'
Eduardo ↔ Gustavo Cazonatti
Mirassol
🔄
70'
Felipe Anderson ↔ Khellven
Palmeiras
🔄
70'
Vitor Roque ↔ Lucas Evangelista
Palmeiras
⚽
75'
Mauricio · Assist: Gustavo Gómez
Palmeiras
🔄
76'
Gustavo Silva ↔ Carlos Eduardo
Mirassol
🔄
79'
Bruno Santos ↔ André Luis
Mirassol
🔄
79'
Alesson ↔ Fernandinho
Mirassol
VAR
83'
Fernandinho
Mirassol
🟨
85'
Denilson
Mirassol
🔄
87'
Mauricio ↔ Heittor
Palmeiras
🟨
90+8'
Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras
🟨
90+6'
Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras
🟥
90+8'
Arthur Gabriel
Palmeiras

Mirassol vs Palmeiras Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 60.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
60.6%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
83.6%
- ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
- ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 29.4%
Draw 10%
Palmeiras Win 60.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol0.98
Palmeiras1.58
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
34 GF / 41 GA
Palmeiras Palmeiras
WLDWL
56 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.1
Average Goals Scored
1.75
1.32
Average Goals Conceded
0.81
18
BTTS Yes
20
14
Over 2.5
16
4.13
Shots on Goal
4.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 31 matches
Palmeiras Palmeiras 32 matches
Mirassol Statistic Palmeiras
10 Wins 19
8 Draws 9
13 Losses 4
34 Goals For 56
41 Goals Against 26
1.1 Avg Goals Scored 1.75
1.32 Avg Goals Conceded 0.81
18 BTTS Yes 20
21 Over 1.5 23
14 Over 2.5 16
7 Over 3.5 8
5 Clean Sheets 11
9 Failed To Score 3
4.13 Shots On Goal 4.94
12.71 Total Shots 15.06
5.06 Corners 5.88
49.5% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Palmeiras's more proactive style and Mirassol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Palmeiras. Palmeiras carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 48 points while Mirassol sit 17 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mirassol expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Palmeiras in 4-4-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Palmeiras having the stronger overall control.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 23 points from 22 matches. Across the season they have posted 6 wins, 5 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 25:35 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Igor Formiga (4 goals), João Victor (2 goals), Negueba (2 goals), with creative support from Reinaldo (4 assists), Alesson (4 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Palmeiras Analysis

Placed 1 with 48 points from 23 outings, Palmeiras continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 40:19 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through José Manuel López (6 goals), Allan (4 goals), Ramón Sosa (4 goals), with creative support from Andreas Pereira (9 assists), José Manuel López (3 assists), Joaquín Piquerez (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 2 times, Palmeiras won 6 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 10:17 from Mirassol's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.7 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-3-3 / Palmeiras 4-4-2
Missing players: Mirassol 4, Palmeiras 5
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 2, draws 2, Palmeiras wins 6

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 31 19 9 3 54:22 32 66
W W W D W
2 30 19 7 4 58:25 33 64
W D W W W
3 31 15 8 8 49:37 12 53
L W D W D
4 30 14 9 7 48:37 11 51
L W W L W
5 31 14 8 9 42:35 7 50
W W D W D
6 30 13 10 7 44:36 8 49
W L L W W
7 30 14 6 10 46:44 2 48
L W W L W
8 30 11 9 10 46:45 1 42
L D W W W
9 30 11 7 12 38:35 3 40
W D L L D
10 30 11 6 13 35:35 0 39
W L L W L
11 31 10 9 12 44:48 -4 39
W D L L W
12 31 10 9 12 38:49 -11 39
L D L L D
13 30 10 6 14 33:44 -11 36
L W L D W
14 31 9 9 13 36:44 -8 36
W L D W D
15 29 9 8 12 36:42 -6 35
D W W W L
16 30 8 8 14 31:38 -7 32
L L L L L
17 31 7 11 13 33:40 -7 32
L D W L W
18 30 7 10 13 32:40 -8 31
D D D L L
19 30 5 10 15 33:48 -15 25
D D L L L
20 30 3 9 18 30:62 -32 18
L L L D L
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B