BRAZIL SERIE A
16.08.2026 21:30
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia
Referee: Rafael Rodrigo Klein, Brazil
Mirassol
Match Timeline
Flamengo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
17'
Edson Carioca ↔ Alesson
Mirassol
22'
J. Carrascal · Assist: G. Plata
Flamengo
🟨
45+3'
Denilson
Mirassol
🔄
46'
Wallisson ↔ Eduardo
Mirassol
🟨
51'
Gustavo Cazonatti
Mirassol
53'
Luiz Araujo · Assist: J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
54'
G. Cazonatti ↔ Neto Moura
Mirassol
🔄
54'
Denilson ↔ Japa
Mirassol
56'
Pedro · Assist: Ayrton Lucas
Flamengo
🔄
63'
E. Pulgar ↔ Evertton Araujo
Flamengo
🔄
63'
G. Plata ↔ Jorginho
Flamengo
🔄
63'
Luiz Araujo ↔ Samuel Lino
Flamengo
66'
Pedro · Assist: J. Carrascal
Flamengo
🔄
69'
Fernandinho ↔ Gustavo Silva
Mirassol
🔄
69'
Ayrton Lucas ↔ J. Goes
Flamengo
🔄
74'
Lucas Paqueta ↔ G. de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
74'
Samuel Lino · Assist: G. de Arrascaeta
Flamengo
77'
Joao Victor · Assist: Reinaldo
Mirassol
🟨
85'
Neto Moura
Mirassol

Mirassol vs Flamengo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 49.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 66.7%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
49.9%
-
BTTS Yes
82.5%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
66.7%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
74.2%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mirassol Win 38.2%
Draw 11.9%
Flamengo Win 49.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mirassol1.02
Flamengo1.68
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mirassol Mirassol
WWDLW
32 GF / 35 GA
Flamengo Flamengo
WLDWL
61 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.14
Average Goals Scored
1.97
1.25
Average Goals Conceded
0.84
16
BTTS Yes
16
13
Over 2.5
17
4.18
Shots on Goal
5.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mirassol Mirassol 28 matches
Flamengo Flamengo 31 matches
Mirassol Statistic Flamengo
10 Wins 19
6 Draws 9
12 Losses 3
32 Goals For 61
35 Goals Against 26
1.14 Avg Goals Scored 1.97
1.25 Avg Goals Conceded 0.84
16 BTTS Yes 16
19 Over 1.5 29
13 Over 2.5 17
6 Over 3.5 7
4 Clean Sheets 13
8 Failed To Score 2
4.18 Shots On Goal 5.78
12.75 Total Shots 15.56
5.21 Corners 4.63
50.7% Ball Possession 56.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Flamengo's more proactive style and Mirassol's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Flamengo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 2 with 39 points while Mirassol sit 15 on 23, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mirassol expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Flamengo in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Flamengo having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Flamengo. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest.

Mirassol Analysis

Mirassol approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 23 points from 20 matches. Their record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 23:27, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Igor Formiga (4 goals), Negueba (2 goals), Edson Carioca (2 goals), with creative support from Alesson (4 assists), Reinaldo (3 assists), Igor Formiga (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Flamengo Analysis

Flamengo come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 39 points from 20 matches. The record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 37:18 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Pedro (12 goals), Samuel Lino (5 goals), Giorgian de Arrascaeta (3 goals), with creative support from Samuel Lino (7 assists), Pedro (4 assists), Guillermo Varela (3 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 6 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses, a split that suggests a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Mirassol won 0 times, Flamengo won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 5:10 from Mirassol's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Mirassol 4-3-3 / Flamengo 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mirassol wins 0, draws 1, Flamengo wins 2

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 17 6 4 53:22 31 57
W W W W L
2 27 16 8 3 47:21 26 56
W D D W L
3 27 13 7 7 41:31 10 46
D L D W D
4 27 12 9 6 41:35 6 45
L W D W W
5 26 11 10 5 40:32 8 43
W W W D D
6 27 12 6 9 39:39 0 42
L W L W W
7 26 11 6 9 35:31 4 39
W L W D W
8 27 10 8 9 37:38 -1 38
D L W W D
9 26 10 6 10 32:29 3 36
D L L W D
10 26 9 8 9 39:39 0 35
W W W D W
11 26 9 6 11 31:30 1 33
L W W L D
12 27 9 6 12 27:39 -12 33
D W L L W
13 27 8 8 11 28:29 -1 32
L L L L L
14 26 8 8 10 38:41 -3 32
D D L L L
15 27 7 8 12 31:42 -11 29
D W L D D
16 26 7 7 12 28:35 -7 28
L L W L L
17 26 7 7 12 29:41 -12 28
W L W L L
18 27 6 10 11 30:35 -5 28
W L L D D
19 26 5 8 13 30:43 -13 23
L L L D D
20 26 3 8 15 28:52 -24 17
L W L W D
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Group Stage)
Promotion - Copa Libertadores (Qualification)
Promotion - Copa Sudamericana (Group Stage)
Relegation - Serie B