WORLD WORLD CUP
11.06.2026 19:00
Estadio Banorte
Referee: Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Mexico
Match Timeline
South Africa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
9'
J. Quinones · Assist: E. Lira
Mexico
🟨
17'
Teboho Mokoena
South Africa
🟨
23'
Brian Gutiérrez
Mexico
🟥
49'
Siphephelo Sithole
South Africa
🔄
56'
L. Foster ↔ T. Mbatha
South Africa
🔄
61'
J. Adams ↔ T. Zwane
South Africa
🔄
66'
B. Gutierrez ↔ L. Chavez
Mexico
🔄
66'
A. Fidalgo ↔ G. Mora
Mexico
67'
R. Jimenez · Assist: R. Alvarado
Mexico
🟨
74'
Nkosinathi Sibisi
South Africa
🔄
76'
E. Lira ↔ E. Alvarez
Mexico
🔄
76'
R. Jimenez ↔ A. Gonzalez
Mexico
🔄
76'
I. Rayners ↔ E. Makgopa
South Africa
🔄
77'
A. Modiba ↔ O. Appollis
South Africa
🔄
79'
J. Quinones ↔ A. Vega
Mexico
VAR
82'
Themba Zwane
South Africa
🟥
84'
Themba Zwane
South Africa
🟥
90+2'
César Montes
Mexico

Mexico vs South Africa Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.8%
-
BTTS Yes
54.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mexico Win 79.8%
Draw 13.9%
South Africa Win 6.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mexico1.53
South Africa0.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mexico Mexico
WWDLW
15 GF / 2 GA
South Africa South Africa
WLDWL
3 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
0.75
0.25
Average Goals Conceded
1
2
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
1
4.75
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mexico Mexico 8 matches
South Africa South Africa 4 matches
Mexico Statistic South Africa
6 Wins 0
2 Draws 3
0 Losses 1
15 Goals For 3
2 Goals Against 4
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
0.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1
2 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 3
2 Over 2.5 1
2 Over 3.5 0
6 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 1
4.75 Shots On Goal 3
12.38 Total Shots 9.75
5.5 Corners 3
56.3% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Mexico won 1 times, South Africa won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Mexico's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Mexico 4-1-4-1 / South Africa 5-3-2
H2H summary: Mexico wins 1, draws 1, South Africa wins 0

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 3 3 0 0 6:0 6 9
L W W W W
2 3 1 1 1 2:3 -1 4
L W D L
3 3 1 0 2 2:3 -1 3
L L W
4 3 0 1 2 2:6 -4 1
L D L
Round of 32