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WORLD › WORLD CUP
--.--.---- --:--
Mexico
FT
2 - 0
South Africa
Estadio Banorte
Referee: Wilton Pereira Sampaio, Brazil
Mexico
Match Timeline
South Africa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
9'
J. Quinones · Assist: E. Lira
Mexico
🟨
17'
Teboho Mokoena
South Africa
🟨
23'
Brian Gutiérrez
Mexico
🟥
49'
Siphephelo Sithole
South Africa
🔄
56'
L. Foster ↔ T. Mbatha
South Africa
🔄
61'
J. Adams ↔ T. Zwane
South Africa
🔄
66'
B. Gutierrez ↔ L. Chavez
Mexico
🔄
66'
A. Fidalgo ↔ G. Mora
Mexico
⚽
67'
R. Jimenez · Assist: R. Alvarado
Mexico
🟨
74'
Nkosinathi Sibisi
South Africa
🔄
76'
E. Lira ↔ E. Alvarez
Mexico
🔄
76'
R. Jimenez ↔ A. Gonzalez
Mexico
🔄
76'
I. Rayners ↔ E. Makgopa
South Africa
🔄
77'
A. Modiba ↔ O. Appollis
South Africa
🔄
79'
J. Quinones ↔ A. Vega
Mexico
VAR
82'
Themba Zwane
South Africa
🟥
84'
Themba Zwane
South Africa
🟥
90+2'
César Montes
Mexico

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.8%
Odds -
1 agree / 1 disagree
BTTS
Yes
Probability 54.1%
Odds -
1 agree / 0 disagree
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 41.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.8%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
54.1%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
41.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Mexico Win 79.8%
Draw 13.9%
South Africa Win 6.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mexico1.53
South Africa0.55
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mexico Mexico
WWDLW
15 GF / 2 GA
South Africa South Africa
WLDWL
3 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.88
Average Goals Scored
0.75
0.25
Average Goals Conceded
1
2
BTTS Yes
3
2
Over 2.5
1
4.75
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mexico Mexico 8 matches
South Africa South Africa 4 matches
Mexico Statistic South Africa
6 Wins 0
2 Draws 3
0 Losses 1
15 Goals For 3
2 Goals Against 4
1.88 Avg Goals Scored 0.75
0.25 Avg Goals Conceded 1
2 BTTS Yes 3
4 Over 1.5 3
2 Over 2.5 1
2 Over 3.5 0
6 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 1
4.75 Shots On Goal 3
12.38 Total Shots 9.75
5.5 Corners 3
56.3% Ball Possession 51%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Mexico won 1 times, South Africa won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 3:1 from Mexico's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (93.7%)
Predicted formations: Mexico 4-1-4-1 / South Africa 5-3-2
H2H summary: Mexico wins 1, draws 1, South Africa wins 0
Stats
Mexico Mexico
South Africa South Africa
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
7
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
0
3 Corner Kicks 1
12 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 1
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 3
4 Shots on Goal 2
7 Shots off Goal 1
5 Blocked Shots 0
9 Shots insidebox 1
7 Shots outsidebox 2
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
520 Total passes 334
467 Passes accurate 272
1.46 expected_goals 0.07
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 2 🟥

Lineups

Mexico
Formation
South Africa
R. Rangel
R. Rangel
I. Reyes
I. Reyes
C. Montes
C. Montes
J. Vasquez
J. Vasquez
J. Gallardo
J. Gallardo
E. Lira
🎯 ↓
E. Lira
R. Alvarado
🎯
R. Alvarado
B. Gutierrez
↓
B. Gutierrez
A. Fidalgo
↓
A. Fidalgo
J. Quinones
⚽ ↓
J. Quinones
R. Jimenez
⚽ ↓
R. Jimenez
R. Williams
R. Williams
K. Mudau
K. Mudau
N. Sibisi
N. Sibisi
I. Okon
I. Okon
M. Mbokazi
M. Mbokazi
A. Modiba
↓
A. Modiba
T. Mokoena
T. Mokoena
Y. Sithole
Y. Sithole
J. Adams
↓
J. Adams
I. Rayners
↓
I. Rayners
L. Foster
↓
L. Foster
Mexico 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
R. Rangel
G
15
I. Reyes
D
3
C. Montes
🟥 90+2'
D
5
J. Vasquez
D
23
J. Gallardo
D
6
E. Lira
🎯 9' ↓ 76'
M
25
R. Alvarado
🎯 67'
M
26
B. Gutierrez
↓ 66' 🟨 23'
M
8
A. Fidalgo
↓ 66'
M
16
J. Quinones
⚽ 9' ↓ 79'
M
9
R. Jimenez
⚽ 67' ↓ 76'
F
Substitutes
13
G. Ochoa
G
12
C. Acevedo
G
22
G. Martinez
F
24
L. Chavez
↑ 66'
M
18
O. Vargas
M
20
M. Chavez Garcia
D
17
O. Pineda
M
10
A. Vega
↑ 79'
F
2
J. Sanchez
D
4
E. Alvarez
↑ 76'
M
11
S. Gimenez
F
21
C. S. Huerta Valera
M
7
L. Romo
M
14
A. Gonzalez
↑ 76'
F
19
G. Mora
↑ 66'
M
South Africa 5-3-2
Starting XI
1
R. Williams
G
20
K. Mudau
D
19
N. Sibisi
🟨 74'
D
21
I. Okon
D
14
M. Mbokazi
D
6
A. Modiba
↓ 77'
D
4
T. Mokoena
🟨 17'
M
13
Y. Sithole
🟥 49'
M
23
J. Adams
↓ 61'
M
15
I. Rayners
↓ 76'
F
9
L. Foster
↓ 56'
F
Substitutes
22
R. Goss
G
16
S. Chaine
G
26
B. Cross
D
5
T. Mbatha
↑ 56'
M
17
E. Makgopa
↑ 76'
F
2
T. Matuludi
D
3
K. Ndamane
D
11
T. Zwane
↑ 61' 🟥 84'
M
7
O. Appollis
↑ 77'
F
8
T. Moremi
F
12
T. Maseko
F
25
K. Sebelebele
M
24
O. Makhanya
D
10
R. Mofokeng
F
18
S. Kabini
D
Last matches: Mexico
06.07.26
Wor
Mexico
England
2
3
L
01.07.26
Wor
Mexico
Ecuador
2
0
W
25.06.26
Wor
Mexico
Czechia
3
0
W
19.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Korea
1
0
W
05.06.26
Fri
Mexico
Serbia
5
1
W
31.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Australia
1
0
W
23.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Ghana
2
0
W
01.04.26
Fri
Mexico
Belgium
1
1
D
29.03.26
Fri
Mexico
Portugal
0
0
D
26.02.26
Fri
Mexico
Iceland
4
0
W
25.01.26
Fri
Mexico
Bolivia
1
0
W
23.01.26
Fri
Mexico
Panama
1
0
W
Last matches: South Africa
28.06.26
Wor
South Africa
Canada
0
1
L
25.06.26
Wor
South Africa
South Korea
1
0
W
18.06.26
Wor
South Africa
Czechia
1
1
D
06.06.26
Fri
South Africa
Jamaica
1
1
D
29.05.26
Fri
South Africa
Nicaragua
0
0
D
31.03.26
Fri
South Africa
Panama
1
2
L
27.03.26
Fri
South Africa
Panama
1
1
D
H2H: Mexico vs South Africa
11.06.26
H2H
Mexico
South Africa
2
0
W
11.06.10
H2H
South Africa
Mexico
1
1
D
Last matches: Mexico
06.07.26
Wor
Mexico
England
2
3
L
01.07.26
Wor
Mexico
Ecuador
2
0
W
19.06.26
Wor
Mexico
South Korea
1
0
W
05.06.26
Fri
Mexico
Serbia
5
1
W
31.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Australia
1
0
W
23.05.26
Fri
Mexico
Ghana
2
0
W
01.04.26
Fri
Mexico
Belgium
1
1
D
29.03.26
Fri
Mexico
Portugal
0
0
D
26.02.26
Fri
Mexico
Iceland
4
0
W
H2H at home: Mexico
11.06.26
H2H
Mexico
South Africa
2
0
W
Last matches: South Africa
18.06.26
Wor
South Africa
Czechia
1
1
D
06.06.26
Fri
South Africa
Jamaica
1
1
D
H2H away: South Africa
11.06.26
H2H
Mexico
South Africa
2
0
L

Standings

Group A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1
Mexico Home
3 3 0 0 6:0 6 9
L W W W W
2
South Africa Away
3 1 1 1 2:3 -1 4
L W D L
3
South Korea
3 1 0 2 2:3 -1 3
L L W
4
Czechia
3 0 1 2 2:6 -4 1
L D L
Round of 32