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09.10.2026 20:00
Estadio Charrúa
Referee: Esteban Ostojich

Atletico Torque vs Danubio Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.7%
Odds 1.83
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds 1.83
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds 2.04
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.7%
1.83 ▥
BTTS Yes
71.2%
1.83 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
2.04 ▥
Corners O/U Under 8.5 Corners
92%
2.34 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.88 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Atletico Torque Win 79.7%
Draw 4.5%
Danubio Win 15.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Atletico Torque1.51
Danubio1.02
Recent Form (Last 5)
Atletico Torque Atletico Torque
WWDLW
53 GF / 41 GA
Danubio Danubio
WLDWL
26 GF / 40 GA
Key Stats
1.66
Average Goals Scored
0.84
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.29
21
BTTS Yes
15
18
Over 2.5
12
0.4
Shots on Goal
0.75

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Atletico Torque Atletico Torque 32 matches
Danubio Danubio 31 matches
Atletico Torque Statistic Danubio
16 Wins 5
6 Draws 14
10 Losses 12
53 Goals For 26
41 Goals Against 40
1.66 Avg Goals Scored 0.84
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.29
21 BTTS Yes 15
25 Over 1.5 20
18 Over 2.5 12
12 Over 3.5 7
6 Clean Sheets 7
6 Failed To Score 14
0.4 Shots On Goal 0.75
1.8 Total Shots 3.25
1 Corners 1
11.2% Ball Possession 12.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Atletico Torque's more proactive style and Danubio's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Atletico Torque arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 54 points compared to Danubio in 15 on 29, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Atletico Torque expected to line up in 4-3-3 and Danubio in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Danubio having the stronger overall control. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Danubio. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Atletico Torque Analysis

Atletico Torque come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 3 with 54 points from 31 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 16 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, while the 52:37 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been fairly stable. At home, their split return of - wins, - draws, and - losses fits an unclear split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Danubio Analysis

Danubio sit 15 with 29 points after 31 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 14 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 26:40 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned - wins, - draws, and - losses, which indicates an unclear split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Atletico Torque won 2 times, Danubio won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:6 from Atletico Torque's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Atletico Torque 4-3-3 / Danubio 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Atletico Torque wins 2, draws 1, Danubio wins 2

Standings

Primera: Torneo Intermedio
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 7 5 1 1 12:3 9 16
W W D W L
1 7 4 3 0 12:4 8 15
W W W D W
2 7 3 2 2 7:5 2 11
L W D D W
2 7 4 1 2 8:8 0 13
W L D W L
3 7 3 3 1 12:6 6 12
D L D W W
3 7 2 4 1 4:3 1 10
W L D D D
4 7 4 0 3 11:11 0 12
L W W L W
4 7 2 3 2 5:5 0 9
D W L D W
5 7 2 2 3 8:11 -3 8
D W L D L
5 7 2 3 2 4:4 0 9
D L D D W
6 7 1 3 3 6:8 -2 6
D L D W L
6 7 3 0 4 6:10 -4 9
L W W L L
7 7 2 0 5 6:11 -5 6
L W L L W
7 7 1 3 3 6:9 -3 6
W L D D D
8 7 0 4 3 5:9 -4 4
D L D D D
8 7 1 2 4 5:10 -5 5
L L D D L
Promotion - Liga AUF Uruguaya (Torneo Intermedio - Play Offs: Final)