FINLAND VEIKKAUSLIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Wiklof Holding Arena
Referee: J. Kontinen
Mariehamn
Match Timeline
KuPS
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
19'
Sebastian Dahlström
Mariehamn
🔄
35'
C. Kabuye ↔ J. Luyeye-Lutumba
KuPS
35'
J. Luyeye-Lutumba · Assist: C. Antwi
KuPS
42'
A. Huttunen · Assist: Y. Amankwah
Mariehamn
🟨
54'
Valentín Gasc
KuPS
🔄
64'
N. Dosis ↔ J. Heyden
Mariehamn
🔄
64'
L. Andersson ↔ L. Pearce
Mariehamn
🔄
69'
S. Heiskanen ↔ S. Savolainen
KuPS
🔄
78'
T. Hamalainen ↔ A. Puukko
KuPS
🔄
82'
S. Dahlstrom ↔ A. Larsson
Mariehamn
🔄
89'
A. Huttunen ↔ A. Soiniemi
Mariehamn

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 85%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 30.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 51.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
85%
-
BTTS BTTS No
30.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
51.3%
-
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Mariehamn Win 36.9%
Draw 15%
KuPS Win 48.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Mariehamn0.82
KuPS1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Mariehamn Mariehamn
WWDLW
9 GF / 15 GA
KuPS KuPS
WLDWL
12 GF / 7 GA
Key Stats
0.9
Average Goals Scored
1.2
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
0.7
6
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
2
1.67
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Mariehamn Mariehamn 10 matches
KuPS KuPS 10 matches
Mariehamn Statistic KuPS
1 Wins 5
5 Draws 4
4 Losses 1
9 Goals For 12
15 Goals Against 7
0.9 Avg Goals Scored 1.2
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 0.7
6 BTTS Yes 4
8 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 2
2 Over 3.5 2
0 Clean Sheets 5
4 Failed To Score 3
1.67 Shots On Goal 3.86
4.17 Total Shots 8.29
1.83 Corners 3.14
23.2% Ball Possession 34.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by KuPS's more proactive style and Mariehamn's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. KuPS carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 12 points while Mariehamn sit 12 on 3, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Mariehamn have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Mariehamn expected to line up in 4-3-1-2 and KuPS in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward KuPS having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors KuPS. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Mariehamn Analysis

With 3 points from 6 games and a place of 12, Mariehamn still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 0 wins, 3 draws, and 3 defeats, and the 4:9 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on S. Dahlstrom (2 goals), A. Larsson (1 goals), Emmanuel Patut (1 goals), with creative support from Emmanuel Patut (1 assists), T. Koivisto (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. At home, the split record of 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses points to a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

KuPS Analysis

KuPS arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 4 place with 12 points after 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 3 draws, and 1 losses with goals at 9:7 reflects poor form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by J. J. Moreno Ciorciari (4 goals), B. Armah (2 goals), O. Ruoppi (2 goals), with creative support from O. Ruoppi (3 assists), J. J. Moreno Ciorciari (1 assists), P. Pennanen (1 assists), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Mariehamn won 2 times, KuPS won 9 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 9:25 from Mariehamn's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 2.27 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85%)
Predicted formations: Mariehamn 4-3-1-2 / KuPS 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Mariehamn wins 2, draws 4, KuPS wins 9
Stats
Mariehamn Mariehamn
KuPS KuPS
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
10
Shots off Goal
1
Shots off Goal
4
Blocked Shots
0
Blocked Shots
9
1 Corner Kicks 9
14 Fouls 13
5 Offsides 2
32% Ball Possession 68%
3 Total Shots 23
2 Shots on Goal 10
1 Shots off Goal 4
0 Blocked Shots 9
3 Shots insidebox 12
0 Shots outsidebox 11
9 Goalkeeper Saves 1
286 Total passes 578
211 Passes accurate 497
0.65 expected_goals 2.55
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Mariehamn
Formation
KuPS
M. Riikonen
M. Riikonen
Y. Amankwah
🎯
Y. Amankwah
T. Koivisto
T. Koivisto
P. Lindgren
P. Lindgren
N. Nurmi
N. Nurmi
S. Ngulube
S. Ngulube
N. Dosis
N. Dosis
E. Patut
E. Patut
A. Huttunen
A. Huttunen
L. Andersson
L. Andersson
S. Dahlstrom
S. Dahlstrom
J. Kreidl
J. Kreidl
T. Hamalainen
T. Hamalainen
B. Magassa
B. Magassa
K. Adams
K. Adams
C. Antwi
🎯
C. Antwi
N. Kujasalo
N. Kujasalo
V. R. Gasc
V. R. Gasc
S. Heiskanen
S. Heiskanen
O. Ruoppi
O. Ruoppi
C. Kabuye
C. Kabuye
G. Engvall
G. Engvall
Mariehamn 5-3-2
Starting XI
32
M. Riikonen
G
38
Y. Amankwah
🎯 42'
D
5
T. Koivisto
D
4
P. Lindgren
D
2
N. Nurmi
D
31
S. Ngulube
D
6
N. Dosis
↓ 64'
M
20
E. Patut
M
16
A. Huttunen
⚽ 42' ↓ 89'
M
43
L. Andersson
↓ 64'
F
10
S. Dahlstrom
↓ 82' 🟨 19'
F
Substitutes
1
K. Lund
G
8
J. Heyden
↑ 64'
M
21
A. Lundberg
F
7
A. Larsson
↑ 82'
F
11
L. Pearce
↑ 64'
F
3
A. Soiniemi
↑ 89'
M
KuPS 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
J. Kreidl
G
33
T. Hamalainen
↓ 78'
D
28
B. Magassa
D
4
K. Adams
D
25
C. Antwi
🎯 35'
D
13
N. Kujasalo
M
10
V. R. Gasc
🟨 54'
M
3
S. Heiskanen
↓ 69'
M
34
O. Ruoppi
M
19
C. Kabuye
↓ 35'
M
9
G. Engvall
F
Substitutes
12
H. Riihimaki
G
6
S. Savolainen
↑ 69'
M
21
J. Luyeye-Lutumba
⚽ 35' ↑ 35'
M
29
A. Puukko
↑ 78'
18
E. Tanninen
M
23
A. Lotjonen
D
20
S. Soumahoro
M
Last matches: Mariehamn
18.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
AC Oulu
1
2
L
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
30.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
HJK Helsinki
0
1
L
23.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
FF Jaro
0
3
L
10.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Lahti
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
25.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Inter Turku
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
10.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
SJK
0
3
L
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
21.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sandviken
1
1
D
14.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
Last matches: KuPS
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
30.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Inter Turku
1
1
D
23.05.26
Vei
KuPS
Lahti
2
1
W
20.05.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
3
0
W
08.05.26
Vei
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
26.04.26
Vei
KuPS
HJK Helsinki
1
1
D
22.04.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
3
2
W
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
11.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Gnistan
1
0
W
04.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
21.03.26
Fri
KuPS
JIPPO
1
0
W
14.03.26
Fri
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
W
26.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
19.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
2
L
18.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Crystal Palace
2
2
D
11.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Lausanne
0
0
D
27.11.25
UEF
KuPS
Jagiellonia
0
1
L
H2H: Mariehamn vs KuPS
16.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
14.03.26
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
L
18.06.25
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
0
W
23.04.25
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
4
1
L
25.08.24
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
3
0
L
16.06.24
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
3
L
13.04.24
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
2
2
D
05.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
27.06.23
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
0
1
W
30.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
14.08.22
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
1
0
L
08.05.22
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
05.09.21
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
1
L
14.05.21
H2H
KuPS
Mariehamn
2
0
L
27.09.20
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
Last matches: Mariehamn
13.06.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Gnistan
0
3
L
02.05.26
Vei
Mariehamn
VPS
0
1
L
18.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Ilves
2
2
D
04.04.26
Vei
Mariehamn
Turku PS
1
1
D
27.03.26
Fri
Mariehamn
EIF
3
2
W
28.02.26
Fri
Mariehamn
Sleipner
1
1
D
H2H at home: Mariehamn
16.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
18.06.25
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
0
W
16.06.24
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
3
L
13.04.24
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
2
2
D
05.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
30.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
08.05.22
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
05.09.21
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
1
L
27.09.20
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
L
Last matches: KuPS
17.06.26
Vei
KuPS
Turku PS
2
1
W
13.06.26
Vei
KuPS
VPS
1
1
D
02.05.26
Vei
KuPS
AC Oulu
0
2
L
18.04.26
Vei
KuPS
FF Jaro
1
1
D
04.04.26
Vei
KuPS
Ilves
3
1
W
27.03.26
Fri
KuPS
SJK
0
0
D
26.02.26
UEF
KuPS
Lech Poznan
0
1
L
18.12.25
UEF
KuPS
Crystal Palace
2
2
D
27.11.25
UEF
KuPS
Jagiellonia
0
1
L
23.10.25
UEF
KuPS
Breidablik
0
0
D
21.08.25
UEF
KuPS
FC Midtjylland
0
4
L
06.08.25
UEF
KuPS
Rīgas FS
2
1
W
29.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Kairat Almaty
0
3
L
15.07.25
UEF
KuPS
Milsami Orhei
0
0
D
H2H away: KuPS
16.05.26
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
18.06.25
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
0
L
16.06.24
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
3
W
13.04.24
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
2
2
D
05.07.23
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
30.04.23
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
W
08.05.22
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
1
1
D
05.09.21
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
1
W
27.09.20
H2H
Mariehamn
KuPS
0
2
W

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 13 7 5 1 20:11 9 26
D D D W W
2 12 8 1 3 18:9 9 25
W D W W W
3
KuPS Away
13 6 6 1 19:12 7 24
W D D W W
4 12 5 4 3 21:13 8 19
D W W L D
5 11 5 2 4 17:15 2 17
W W W L W
6 11 4 5 2 11:9 2 17
W D L W D
7 11 4 3 4 12:11 1 15
L L W L L
8 12 4 3 5 19:21 -2 15
W W L W L
9 11 3 2 6 14:14 0 11
L L W L D
10 11 2 3 6 12:18 -6 9
L W L L L
11 12 1 4 7 10:27 -17 7
L L L W L
12 11 0 4 7 6:19 -13 4
L L L L D
Promotion - Veikkausliiga (Championship Group)
Veikkausliiga (Relegation Group)