ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Jocay

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 68.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 58.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 19.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
68.6%
-
BTTS Yes
58.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
19.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Manta FC Win 26.6%
Draw 4.8%
Leones del Norte Win 68.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Manta FC0.62
Leones del Norte1.13
Recent Form (Last 5)
Manta FC Manta FC
WWDLW
9 GF / 29 GA
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte
WLDWL
24 GF / 22 GA
Key Stats
0.39
Average Goals Scored
1.04
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
0.96
6
BTTS Yes
11
5
Over 2.5
7
2.65
Shots on Goal
3.78

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Manta FC Manta FC 23 matches
Leones del Norte Leones del Norte 23 matches
Manta FC Statistic Leones del Norte
3 Wins 8
5 Draws 8
15 Losses 7
9 Goals For 24
29 Goals Against 22
0.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.04
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 0.96
6 BTTS Yes 11
10 Over 1.5 16
5 Over 2.5 7
2 Over 3.5 2
4 Clean Sheets 8
15 Failed To Score 6
2.65 Shots On Goal 3.78
9.65 Total Shots 12.52
4.61 Corners 4.04
47.5% Ball Possession 46.2%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Leones del Norte's more proactive style and Manta FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Manta FC have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Leones del Norte. Leones del Norte carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 7 with 32 points while Manta FC sit 16 on 14, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Manta FC Analysis

With 14 points from 23 games and a place of 16, Manta FC still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 3 wins, 5 draws, and 15 defeats with a 9:29 goal balance points toward poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Going forward they depend heavily on José Angulo (3 goals), Jean Carlos Blanco (2 goals), Octavio Moscarelli (1 goals), with creative support from Braian Ramírez (2 assists), Jean Carlos Blanco (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 2 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses points to a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Leones del Norte Analysis

So far, Leones del Norte have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 32 points from 23 matches. The record of 8 wins, 8 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 24:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Juan Anangonó (5 goals), Darío Pazmiño (3 goals), Emiliano Griffa (3 goals), with creative support from Jonathan Arroyo (3 assists), Darío Pazmiño (2 assists), Elián Pepinós (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, they have returned 3 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Manta FC won 2 times, Leones del Norte won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:9 from Manta FC's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.2%)
Predicted formations: Manta FC 4-2-3-1 / Leones del Norte 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Manta FC wins 2, draws 1, Leones del Norte wins 2
Last matches: Manta FC
01.08.26
Lig
Manta FC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
26.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario
0
1
L
23.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
19.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
15.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
11.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
04.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Independiente del Valle
0
4
L
30.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Libertad
2
1
W
26.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Aucas
1
3
L
17.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Emelec
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Macara
0
1
L
03.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
27.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
22.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Leones del Norte
0
3
L
19.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Mushuc Runa SC
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario
0
2
L
22.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
LDU de Quito
0
1
L
18.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Delfin SC
1
0
W
Last matches: Leones del Norte
02.08.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
1
D
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
1
1
D
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
15.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
10.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
01.06.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
1
1
D
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
17.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Mushuc Runa SC
3
1
W
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
03.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Emelec
2
0
W
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
22.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
W
17.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Aucas
0
1
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
18.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
0
2
L
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
H2H: Manta FC vs Leones del Norte
22.04.26
H2H
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
L
26.09.24
H2H
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
1
1
D
07.08.24
H2H
Manta FC
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
05.06.24
H2H
Manta FC
Leones del Norte
3
1
W
11.04.24
H2H
Leones del Norte
Manta FC
3
0
L
Last matches: Manta FC
01.08.26
Lig
Manta FC
Mushuc Runa SC
1
2
L
23.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
LDU de Quito
1
1
D
15.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Delfin SC
0
1
L
11.07.26
Lig
Manta FC
Orense SC
0
0
D
30.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Libertad
2
1
W
17.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Emelec
0
0
D
10.05.26
Lig
Manta FC
Macara
0
1
L
27.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Universidad Catolica
1
0
W
19.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Deportivo Cuenca
0
1
L
05.04.26
Lig
Manta FC
Tecnico Universitario
0
2
L
18.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Guayaquil City FC
0
1
L
03.03.26
Lig
Manta FC
Independiente del Valle
0
2
L
H2H at home: Manta FC
07.08.24
H2H
Manta FC
Leones del Norte
2
1
W
05.06.24
H2H
Manta FC
Leones del Norte
3
1
W
Last matches: Leones del Norte
26.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Delfin SC
1
0
W
18.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
LDU de Quito
1
0
W
04.07.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Libertad
3
1
W
24.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Tecnico Universitario
1
2
L
09.05.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Orense SC
0
2
L
25.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Independiente del Valle
1
2
L
11.04.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Barcelona SC
1
2
L
23.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Guayaquil City FC
0
0
D
14.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Deportivo Cuenca
1
1
D
08.03.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Universidad Catolica
0
3
L
22.02.26
Lig
Leones del Norte
Macara
0
0
D
H2H away: Leones del Norte
07.08.24
H2H
Manta FC
Leones del Norte
2
1
L
05.06.24
H2H
Manta FC
Leones del Norte
3
1
L

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 23 19 1 3 56:22 34 58
W W W W W
2 23 11 6 6 38:19 19 39
W D W W W
3 23 11 5 7 30:23 7 38
W W W L W
4 23 11 5 7 26:25 1 38
W L L W L
5 23 9 8 6 24:18 6 35
D L L W D
6 23 10 5 8 23:18 5 35
W W D L L
7 23 8 8 7 24:22 2 32
D W D W D
8 23 9 4 10 21:28 -7 31
L W L L D
9 23 8 6 9 24:26 -2 30
W W W L W
10 23 7 7 9 29:34 -5 28
W L D W L
11 23 7 7 9 20:25 -5 28
L D D W D
12 23 7 5 11 27:35 -8 26
L L W L L
13 23 8 2 13 20:29 -9 26
L W L L L
14 23 7 7 9 19:28 -9 25
L L D L W
15 23 6 5 12 14:23 -9 23
L L L W W
16 23 3 5 15 9:29 -20 14
L L D L L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs