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JAPAN › J1 LEAGUE
17.10.2026 06:00
Mercari Stadium
Referee: Hiroki Kasahara
Kashima
Match Timeline
V-varen Nagasaki
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
2'
Léo Ceará
Kashima
⚽
5'
Aleksandar Čavrić · Assist: Haruki Hayashi
Kashima
🟨
23'
Tenmu Matsumoto
V-varen Nagasaki
🟨
43'
Jonathan Junior
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
45'
Sho Omori ↔ Ryoya Ogawa
Kashima
🔄
54'
Tenmu Matsumoto ↔ Kenshin Yasuda
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
55'
José Élber Pimentel da Silva ↔ Yuta Matsumura
Kashima
🔄
67'
Ikki Arai ↔ Ryosuke Shindo
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
67'
Jonathan Junior ↔ Ryogo Yamasaki
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
72'
Aleksandar Čavrić ↔ Yuma Suzuki
Kashima
🔄
72'
Gaku Shibasaki ↔ Kento Misao
Kashima
🟨
82'
Kenshin Yasuda
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
85'
Léo Ceará ↔ Homare Tokuda
Kashima
🔄
85'
Asahi Masuyama ↔ Hijiri Onaga
V-varen Nagasaki
🔄
85'
Hotaru Yamaguchi ↔ Takashi Sawada
V-varen Nagasaki

Kashima vs V-varen Nagasaki Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds 1.54
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds 1.80
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds 1.74
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
1.54 ▥
BTTS Yes
78.8%
1.80 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
1.74 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
77.3%
1.24 ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25 ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50 ▥
Probability Distribution
Kashima Win 88%
Draw 6%
V-varen Nagasaki Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Kashima1.98
V-varen Nagasaki1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Kashima Kashima
WWDLW
19 GF / 16 GA
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki
WLDWL
11 GF / 16 GA
Key Stats
2.11
Average Goals Scored
1.22
1.78
Average Goals Conceded
1.78
6
BTTS Yes
6
6
Over 2.5
5
4.56
Shots on Goal
3.67

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Kashima Kashima 9 matches
V-varen Nagasaki V-varen Nagasaki 9 matches
Kashima Statistic V-varen Nagasaki
5 Wins 2
1 Draws 3
3 Losses 4
19 Goals For 11
16 Goals Against 16
2.11 Avg Goals Scored 1.22
1.78 Avg Goals Conceded 1.78
6 BTTS Yes 6
8 Over 1.5 8
6 Over 2.5 5
4 Over 3.5 3
2 Clean Sheets 1
1 Failed To Score 2
4.56 Shots On Goal 3.67
16.22 Total Shots 11.33
3.67 Corners 4.11
57.7% Ball Possession 45%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by Kashima's more proactive style and V-varen Nagasaki's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Kashima arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 6 with 16 points compared to V-varen Nagasaki in 15 on 8, which underlines the gap in season consistency. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Kashima expected to line up in 4-4-2 and V-varen Nagasaki in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward V-varen Nagasaki having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Kashima have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors V-varen Nagasaki.

Kashima Analysis

With 16 points from 9 games and a place of 6, Kashima still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats with a 19:16 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Léo Ceará (9 goals), A. Čavrić (4 goals), Y. Suzuki (1 goals), with creative support from Y. Suzuki (2 assists), Y. Matsumura (2 assists), Yan Matheus (2 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 3 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with balanced attacking football.

V-varen Nagasaki Analysis

V-varen Nagasaki approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 8 points from 8 matches. The overall return of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 4 defeats with a 10:15 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Thiago Santana (3 goals), Matheus Jesus (3 goals), K. Yasuda (1 goals), with creative support from M. Hasegawa (1 assists), H. Onaga (1 assists), H. Yamaguchi (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split record of 0 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 5 head-to-head meetings, Kashima won 5 times, V-varen Nagasaki won 0 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:6 from Kashima's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3.6 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Kashima 4-4-2 / V-varen Nagasaki 3-4-2-1
H2H summary: Kashima wins 5, draws 0, V-varen Nagasaki wins 0

Standings

J-League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 7 2 1 25:6 19 23
W W W W L
2 10 7 2 1 21:8 13 23
W W W W W
3 10 7 0 3 22:17 5 21
L W W W L
4 9 6 2 1 22:10 12 20
W L D W W
5 10 6 1 3 21:16 5 19
W W D L L
6 9 6 1 2 14:9 5 19
L W W W W
7 10 4 4 2 21:16 5 16
W L D W W
8 10 4 4 2 13:9 4 16
D D W D W
9 10 5 0 5 17:21 -4 15
W L W L W
10 10 4 2 4 10:11 -1 14
D W W W L
11 9 4 1 4 12:12 0 13
L L W W W
12 10 4 0 6 12:16 -4 12
W W L L L
13 10 3 3 4 9:16 -7 12
L D D L D
14 10 2 3 5 12:14 -2 9
L L L L D
15 10 2 3 5 11:18 -7 9
L D D W L
16 10 2 2 6 11:19 -8 8
L L W L L
17 9 2 1 6 11:13 -2 7
W L L D L
18 10 1 4 5 10:18 -8 7
D L L L L
19 10 1 3 6 8:19 -11 6
D D L D W
20 10 0 4 6 4:18 -14 4
L L L D D
Promotion - AFC Champions League (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League