SPAIN SEGUNDA DIVISIóN
24.05.2026 16:30
Estadio La Rosaleda
Referee: S. Muresan
Malaga
Match Timeline
Racing Santander
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
4'
D. Larrubia · Assist: C. Dotor
Malaga
🟨
15'
Damián Rodríguez
Racing Santander
🟨
24'
Maguette Gueye
Racing Santander
🔄
46'
S. Camara ↔ I. Vicente
Racing Santander
🟨
53'
Pablo Ramón
Racing Santander
🔄
60'
D. Lorenzo ↔ R. Enriquez
Malaga
🔄
61'
Manu ↔ J. Castro
Racing Santander
🔄
61'
M. Gueye ↔ D. Diaz
Racing Santander
🔄
61'
A. Villalibre ↔ J. Arana
Racing Santander
🟨
69'
Carlos Puga
Malaga
🔄
69'
P. Ramon ↔ M. Sangalli
Racing Santander
70'
A. Martin · Assist: I. Vicente
Racing Santander
🔄
78'
C. Dotor ↔ A. Nino
Malaga
🔄
78'
I. Merino ↔ R. Rodriguez
Malaga
🟨
80'
Jorge Salinas
Racing Santander
🟨
85'
Alvaro Mantilla
Racing Santander
🔄
86'
D. Rodriguez ↔ I. Sainz-Maza
Racing Santander
🔄
87'
D. Larrubia ↔ J. Lobete
Malaga
🔄
87'
C. Puga ↔ D. Sanchez
Malaga
🔄
87'
J. Munoz ↔ A. Ochoa
Malaga

Malaga vs Racing Santander Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 94.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 93.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
94.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
93.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Malaga Win 56.5%
Draw 0%
Racing Santander Win 43.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Malaga1.66
Racing Santander1.78
Recent Form (Last 5)
Malaga Malaga
WWDLW
76 GF / 54 GA
Racing Santander Racing Santander
WLDWL
93 GF / 63 GA
Key Stats
1.81
Average Goals Scored
2.11
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.43
27
BTTS Yes
31
27
Over 2.5
32
5.21
Shots on Goal
5.45

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Malaga Malaga 42 matches
Racing Santander Racing Santander 44 matches
Malaga Statistic Racing Santander
21 Wins 27
9 Draws 6
12 Losses 11
76 Goals For 93
54 Goals Against 63
1.81 Avg Goals Scored 2.11
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.43
27 BTTS Yes 31
33 Over 1.5 38
27 Over 2.5 32
14 Over 3.5 23
10 Clean Sheets 9
6 Failed To Score 5
5.21 Shots On Goal 5.45
13.26 Total Shots 12.98
3.98 Corners 5.27
49.9% Ball Possession 48.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Malaga expected to line up in 4-4-2 and Racing Santander in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Racing Santander having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Racing Santander look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Racing Santander. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Malaga Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 69 points from 40 games, Malaga bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 20 wins, 9 draws, and 11 losses, with a 72:51 goal return and good form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on Chupe (23 goals), A. Nino (12 goals), David Larrubia (9 goals), with creative support from Joaquín Muñoz (6 assists), Chupe (5 assists), R. Rodriguez (4 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. At home, their record of 12 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses points to a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football. They are not at full strength, with H. Abaida unavailable, although the overall attacking core still looks largely intact.

Racing Santander Analysis

Racing Santander approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 78 points after 40 outings. They have recorded 24 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, with a 85:59 goal return and very strong form and are on a winning streak. In attack they lean heavily on A. Martin (22 goals), A. Villalibre (16 goals), I. Vicente (8 goals), with creative support from I. Vicente (18 assists), A. Martin (9 assists), P. Canales (8 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Malaga won 6 times, Racing Santander won 3 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 17:10 from Malaga's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 2.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Malaga 4-4-2 / Racing Santander 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Malaga 1, Racing Santander 0
H2H summary: Malaga wins 6, draws 3, Racing Santander wins 3

Standings

Segunda División
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 42 25 7 10 90:61 29 82
W D W W W
2 42 22 11 9 65:44 21 77
L W W W W
3 42 22 8 12 81:63 18 74
L D W D W
4 42 21 10 11 75:52 23 73
W D D W W
5 42 20 13 9 57:40 17 73
D L W D W
6 42 20 12 10 70:51 19 72
L D W W D
7 42 20 12 10 48:33 15 72
W W W D D
8 42 19 10 13 52:40 12 67
L W L W L
9 42 18 7 17 60:54 6 61
W W W L L
10 42 17 10 15 57:61 -4 61
D L L W W
11 42 17 10 15 51:63 -12 61
W W L D W
12 42 16 11 15 56:55 1 59
L W W W W
13 42 16 10 16 62:54 8 58
L L L W L
14 42 12 12 18 50:56 -6 48
L L L L W
15 42 12 11 19 52:61 -9 47
D L D W D
16 42 11 13 18 43:51 -8 46
W L D L L
17 42 12 10 20 44:57 -13 46
L L L W L
18 42 11 10 21 41:61 -20 43
L W D L D
19 42 10 10 22 47:69 -22 40
L W D L L
20 42 9 11 22 41:63 -22 38
D L D L L
21 42 9 10 23 39:68 -29 37
D L W L D
22 42 8 12 22 35:59 -24 36
L D L L L
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