FRANCE › LIGUE 1
17.05.2026 19:00
FT
0 - 4
Parc Olympique Lyonnais
Referee: F. Letexier
Lyon
Match Timeline
Lens
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
5'
Malang Sarr
Lens
⚽
20'
W. Said · Assist: K. Antonio
Lens
🟨
27'
Saud Abdulhamid
Lens
⚽
32'
W. Said · Assist: A. Haidara
Lens
🔄
39'
K. Antonio ↔ I. Ganiou
Lens
⚽
45'
F. Sotoca · Assist: F. Thauvin
Lens
🔄
46'
R. Kluivert ↔ R. Yaremchuk
Lyon
🔄
46'
A. Maitland-Niles ↔ H. Hateboer
Lyon
🔄
46'
M. Sarr ↔ M. Udol
Lens
🔄
46'
S. Abdulhamid ↔ R. Aguilar
Lens
⚽
53'
F. Thauvin · Assist: A. Bulatovic
Lens
🔄
61'
A. Haidara ↔ A. Thomasson
Lens
🔄
61'
F. Thauvin ↔ A. Sima
Lens
🟨
63'
Pavel Šulc
Lyon
🔄
71'
Endrick ↔ M. Fofana
Lyon
🔄
71'
O. Mangala ↔ E. Nuamah
Lyon
🟨
73'
Ruben Aguilar
Lens
🟨
83'
Nidal Čelik
Lens

Lyon vs Lens Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 90.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
90.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Lyon Win 67.1%
Draw 0%
Lens Win 32.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lyon1.46
Lens1.63
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lyon Lyon
WWDLW
81 GF / 47 GA
Lens Lens
WLDWL
78 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
1.72
Average Goals Scored
2.05
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.08
22
BTTS Yes
21
24
Over 2.5
26
4.98
Shots on Goal
5.89

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lyon Lyon 47 matches
Lens Lens 38 matches
Lyon Statistic Lens
28 Wins 25
8 Draws 5
11 Losses 8
81 Goals For 78
47 Goals Against 41
1.72 Avg Goals Scored 2.05
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.08
22 BTTS Yes 21
33 Over 1.5 32
24 Over 2.5 26
13 Over 3.5 13
22 Clean Sheets 12
7 Failed To Score 6
4.98 Shots On Goal 5.89
13.02 Total Shots 16.71
5.43 Corners 6.32
56.6% Ball Possession 52.5%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Lens. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Lyon come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lyon expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Lens in 3-4-2-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Lens having the stronger overall control.

Lyon Analysis

Operating from 4 place with 60 points from 33 games, Lyon bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. They have recorded 18 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, with a 53:36 goal return and very strong form with results showing strong momentum. In attack they lean heavily on C. Tolisso (11 goals), P. Sulc (11 goals), Endrick (5 goals), with creative support from Endrick (7 assists), Afonso Moreira (7 assists), C. Tolisso (4 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split of 12 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses supports the view of a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

Lens Analysis

Lens come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 67 points from 32 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 21 wins, 4 draws, and 7 losses, while the 62:33 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Odsonne Édouard (12 goals), F. Thauvin (10 goals), W. Said (10 goals), with creative support from Adrien Thomasson (9 assists), Matthieu Udol (7 assists), F. Thauvin (5 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, their split return of 7 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Lyon won 6 times, Lens won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 20:23 from Lyon's perspective. 9 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 9 matches, with an average of 2.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lyon 4-2-3-1 / Lens 3-4-2-1
Missing players: Lyon 2, Lens 3
H2H summary: Lyon wins 6, draws 4, Lens wins 5

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2
Lens Away
34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4
Lyon Home
34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
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