BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Passo das Emas
Luverdense
Match Timeline
Aparecidense
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
90'
Feliphe Gabriel
Luverdense

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 65.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 26%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 39.8%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
65.1%
-
BTTS BTTS No
26%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
39.8%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Luverdense Win 28.5%
Draw 6.5%
Aparecidense Win 65.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Luverdense0.88
Aparecidense1.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Luverdense Luverdense
WWDLW
5 GF / 9 GA
Aparecidense Aparecidense
WLDWL
10 GF / 8 GA
Key Stats
0.71
Average Goals Scored
1.43
1.29
Average Goals Conceded
1.14
3
BTTS Yes
5
3
Over 2.5
3
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Luverdense Luverdense 7 matches
Aparecidense Aparecidense 7 matches
Luverdense Statistic Aparecidense
2 Wins 3
2 Draws 2
3 Losses 2
5 Goals For 10
9 Goals Against 8
0.71 Avg Goals Scored 1.43
1.29 Avg Goals Conceded 1.14
3 BTTS Yes 5
4 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 3
1 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 0
3 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features Aparecidense's more proactive style and Luverdense's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Aparecidense. Luverdense have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Aparecidense having the stronger overall control. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Luverdense Analysis

Luverdense approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 4 with 8 points from 7 matches. Their record of 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, together with goals at 5:9, reflects poor form and are going through a difficult losing run. Much of their threat comes through Pedro Bortoluzo (2 goals), Bady (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Aparecidense Analysis

Aparecidense arrive from the upper part of the table, holding 2 place with 11 points after 7 matches. Their overall return of 3 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses with goals at 10:8 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Carlos Baje (3 goals), Ivan Junior (2 goals), Luan (2 goals), while defensively they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 2 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Luverdense won 3 times, Aparecidense won 1 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:5 from Luverdense's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 2.75 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.5%)
H2H summary: Luverdense wins 3, draws 0, Aparecidense wins 1
Last matches: Luverdense
18.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
ABC
0
0
D
12.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
1
1
D
20.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
1
W
07.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
4
0
W
31.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
0
1
L
09.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
0
4
L
25.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
18.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
11.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
0
0
D
04.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
2
1
W
09.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
3
L
02.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
19.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
1
D
12.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
0
0
D
05.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
0
1
L
Last matches: Aparecidense
27.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
0
4
L
20.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
2
2
D
30.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
09.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
2
1
W
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
25.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
3
1
W
18.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
L
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
0
2
L
23.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
0
2
L
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
09.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
2
D
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
26.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
12.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
2
1
W
05.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
7
0
W
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
H2H: Luverdense vs Aparecidense
24.05.26
H2H
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
18.04.26
H2H
Aparecidense
Luverdense
0
1
W
07.06.25
H2H
Luverdense
Aparecidense
3
1
W
31.05.25
H2H
Aparecidense
Luverdense
4
1
L
Last matches: Luverdense
18.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
ABC
0
0
D
04.07.26
Ser
Luverdense
Guaporé
1
0
W
28.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
1
1
D
07.06.26
Ser
Luverdense
Inhumas
4
0
W
09.05.26
Ser
Luverdense
Gama
1
2
L
25.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Primavera MG
1
1
D
11.04.26
Ser
Luverdense
Brasiliense
0
0
D
02.08.25
Ser
Luverdense
Rio Branco ES
0
0
D
26.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goiânia
1
0
W
12.07.25
Ser
Luverdense
Mixto
0
0
D
28.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Capital Brasilia
2
1
W
07.06.25
Ser
Luverdense
Aparecidense
3
1
W
24.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Porto Velho
1
0
W
10.05.25
Ser
Luverdense
Ceilândia
2
2
D
26.04.25
Ser
Luverdense
Goianésia
1
0
W
H2H at home: Luverdense
24.05.26
H2H
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
W
07.06.25
H2H
Luverdense
Aparecidense
3
1
W
Last matches: Aparecidense
27.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
0
4
L
07.06.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Gama
2
2
D
17.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Inhumas
1
1
D
03.05.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Brasiliense
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Aparecidense
Primavera MG
3
1
W
17.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiatuba EC
3
2
W
02.08.25
Ser
Aparecidense
CFRJ / Maricá
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Mixto
0
0
D
29.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goiânia
3
0
W
07.06.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Luverdense
1
3
L
24.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Ceilândia
3
2
W
10.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Porto Velho
1
3
L
04.05.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Goianésia
3
0
W
19.04.25
Ser
Aparecidense
Capital Brasilia
1
0
W
H2H away: Aparecidense
24.05.26
H2H
Luverdense
Aparecidense
1
0
L
07.06.25
H2H
Luverdense
Aparecidense
3
1
L

Standings

Group 3
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 8 2 0 23:6 17 26
D W W W W
2 10 4 3 3 11:10 1 15
W D W L L
3 10 3 5 2 11:10 1 14
W D W L L
4 10 3 4 3 13:12 1 13
D D L D W
5 10 3 3 4 10:13 -3 12
L D L W W
6 10 0 1 9 3:20 -17 1
L L L D L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)