UGANDA PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Lugazi FC Stadium
Lugazi
Match Timeline
SC Villa
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
2'
F. Ssebuufu
SC Villa

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 54.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 66.3%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 91.5%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
54.6%
-
BTTS BTTS No
66.3%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
91.5%
-
Probability Distribution
Lugazi Win 23%
Draw 22.4%
SC Villa Win 54.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lugazi0.64
SC Villa1.36
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lugazi Lugazi
WWDLW
16 GF / 31 GA
SC Villa SC Villa
WLDWL
30 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
0.7
Average Goals Scored
1.36
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
0.55
8
BTTS Yes
8
10
Over 2.5
7
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lugazi Lugazi 23 matches
SC Villa SC Villa 22 matches
Lugazi Statistic SC Villa
4 Wins 12
8 Draws 6
11 Losses 4
16 Goals For 30
31 Goals Against 12
0.7 Avg Goals Scored 1.36
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 0.55
8 BTTS Yes 8
14 Over 1.5 12
10 Over 2.5 7
3 Over 3.5 1
7 Clean Sheets 12
14 Failed To Score 5
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around SC Villa's more proactive style and Lugazi's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Lugazi have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. SC Villa carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 4 with 45 points while Lugazi sit 12 on 20, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring SC Villa. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward SC Villa having the stronger overall control.

Lugazi Analysis

Lugazi approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 12 with 20 points from 23 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 8 draws, and 11 losses, together with goals at 16:31, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Mungudit (4 goals), A. Kalanzi (3 goals), A. Mulindi (2 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 4 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses, a return that supports a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

SC Villa Analysis

Placed 4 with 45 points from 23 outings, SC Villa continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 13 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 32:11 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through F. Ssebuufu (7 goals), N. Yiga (5 goals), A. Ssemakula (3 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 4 head-to-head meetings, Lugazi won 0 times, SC Villa won 2 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:3 from Lugazi's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (77.6%)
H2H summary: Lugazi wins 0, draws 2, SC Villa wins 2
Last matches: Lugazi
23.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
19.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
12.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
0
0
D
06.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
1
L
29.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
L
15.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
0
0
D
10.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
3
L
11.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
1
L
06.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
2
L
03.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
0
3
L
18.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
1
0
W
12.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
2
L
31.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
0
D
27.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
W
24.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
0
D
07.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
1
L
17.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
1
D
Last matches: SC Villa
23.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
2
1
W
20.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
4
1
W
13.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
W
08.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
0
0
D
30.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
4
0
W
15.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
11.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
07.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
0
0
D
19.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
2
0
W
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
31.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
28.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
6
1
W
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
17.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Calvary
1
0
W
11.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
URA
3
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
H2H: Lugazi vs SC Villa
22.04.26
H2H
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
31.01.26
H2H
SC Villa
Lugazi
0
0
D
24.05.25
H2H
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
06.12.24
H2H
SC Villa
Lugazi
1
1
D
Last matches: Lugazi
23.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Maroons
0
1
L
06.05.26
Pre
Lugazi
Mbarara City
0
1
L
25.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Kitara
1
2
L
10.04.26
Pre
Lugazi
Entebbe UPPC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
KCCA
0
3
L
06.03.26
Pre
Lugazi
NEC
0
2
L
18.02.26
Pre
Lugazi
UPDF
1
0
W
27.01.26
Pre
Lugazi
BUL
2
1
W
17.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Vipers
1
2
L
10.12.25
Pre
Lugazi
Police
1
1
D
20.11.25
Pre
Lugazi
Express
0
0
D
08.11.25
Pre
Lugazi
Buhimba Saints
5
2
W
22.10.25
Pre
Lugazi
URA
0
0
D
26.09.25
Pre
Lugazi
Calvary
3
1
W
H2H at home: Lugazi
22.04.26
H2H
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
24.05.25
H2H
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
L
Last matches: SC Villa
20.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
NEC
4
1
W
13.05.26
Pre
SC Villa
Mbarara City
3
1
W
30.04.26
Pre
SC Villa
Kitara
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Entebbe UPPC
2
0
W
10.03.26
Pre
SC Villa
Police
0
1
L
14.02.26
Pre
SC Villa
URA
0
0
D
23.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
BUL
1
2
L
08.01.26
Pre
SC Villa
Express
1
0
W
06.12.25
Pre
SC Villa
Maroons
0
1
L
29.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
Vipers
1
1
D
25.11.25
Pre
SC Villa
UPDF
1
0
W
31.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
Buhimba Saints
3
0
W
04.10.25
Pre
SC Villa
KCCA
1
2
L
H2H away: SC Villa
22.04.26
H2H
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
W
24.05.25
H2H
Lugazi
SC Villa
0
1
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 19 10 1 55:17 38 67
W W D D D
2 30 19 5 6 46:22 24 62
W D W W D
3 30 18 7 5 47:17 30 61
W W W D L
4 30 16 8 6 43:22 21 56
D D L L W
5 30 14 9 7 30:20 10 51
W D D W W
6 30 13 12 5 31:22 9 51
L L W W W
7 30 13 8 9 42:35 7 47
D D D L W
8 30 9 11 10 26:27 -1 38
W L D L D
9 30 9 10 11 30:33 -3 37
L D D D L
10 30 9 10 11 28:31 -3 37
L D W W L
11 30 5 16 9 27:30 -3 31
W D D D D
12 30 6 9 15 26:46 -20 27
L W L W W
13 30 5 10 15 19:36 -17 25
L D D L W
14 30 5 7 18 24:41 -17 22
L D L L L
15 30 4 9 17 14:39 -25 21
W D D W L
16 30 4 3 23 16:66 -50 15
L L L L L
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
Relegation - Big League