ECUADOR LIGA PRO
03.09.2026 00:00
Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha
Referee: O. Contreras
Barcelona SC
Match Timeline
Independiente del Valle
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
27'
Damián Díaz
Barcelona SC
🟨
27'
Mateo Carabajal
Independiente del Valle
VAR
37'
Aron Rodríguez
Independiente del Valle
40'
C. Gonzalez
Independiente del Valle
🟨
44'
Jefferson Intriago
Barcelona SC
🔄
46'
C. Gonzalez ↔ D. Reasco
Independiente del Valle
46'
J. Wila · Assist: T. Rodriguez
Barcelona SC
🟥
50'
Pablo Marcelo Trobbiani
Barcelona SC
🟨
60'
José Contreras
Barcelona SC
🔄
63'
H. Quintana ↔ J. Viacava
Independiente del Valle
🟥
70'
Joaquín Papa Monestier
Independiente del Valle
🔄
73'
W. Vargas ↔ B. Castillo
Barcelona SC
🔄
75'
J. Sornoza ↔ R. Briones
Independiente del Valle
🔄
75'
E. Pata ↔ M. Perello
Independiente del Valle
🔄
79'
J. Intriago ↔ J. R. Quinonez Ruiz
Barcelona SC
🔄
79'
L. Cano ↔ E. Mendoza
Barcelona SC
🔄
88'
D. Diaz ↔ D. Benedetto
Barcelona SC
🔄
89'
J. Wila ↔ J. Garcia
Barcelona SC
🔄
90+3'
J. Mendez ↔ Y. Ochoa
Independiente del Valle
90'
D. Benedetto · Assist: E. Mendoza
Barcelona SC

Barcelona SC vs Independiente del Valle Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 70.3%
Odds 2.11
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 64.5%
Odds 2.01
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
70.3%
2.11
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.73
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
64.5%
2.01
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.80
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.50
Correct Score 1-2
-
9.00
Probability Distribution
Barcelona SC Win 26.3%
Draw 3.3%
Independiente del Valle Win 70.3%
Expected Goals (xG)
Barcelona SC0.97
Independiente del Valle1.76
Recent Form (Last 5)
Barcelona SC Barcelona SC
WWDLW
38 GF / 40 GA
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle
WLDWL
82 GF / 37 GA
Key Stats
0.93
Average Goals Scored
2.28
0.98
Average Goals Conceded
1.03
16
BTTS Yes
19
14
Over 2.5
23
3.41
Shots on Goal
6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Barcelona SC Barcelona SC 41 matches
Independiente del Valle Independiente del Valle 36 matches
Barcelona SC Statistic Independiente del Valle
15 Wins 28
11 Draws 3
15 Losses 5
38 Goals For 82
40 Goals Against 37
0.93 Avg Goals Scored 2.28
0.98 Avg Goals Conceded 1.03
16 BTTS Yes 19
24 Over 1.5 30
14 Over 2.5 23
3 Over 3.5 17
15 Clean Sheets 14
14 Failed To Score 4
3.41 Shots On Goal 6
12.24 Total Shots 17.26
3.95 Corners 5.94
48% Ball Possession 52.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Independiente del Valle look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Independiente del Valle carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 67 points while Barcelona SC sit 6 on 39, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Barcelona SC expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Independiente del Valle in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Independiente del Valle having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Independiente del Valle. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Barcelona SC Analysis

Barcelona SC are currently 6 in the standings with 39 points from 26 matches. The record of 10 wins, 9 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 28:20 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Darío Benedetto (4 goals), Jhonny Quiñónez (2 goals), Milton Celiz (2 goals), with creative support from Tomás Martínez (2 assists), Darío Benedetto (1 assists), Jhonny Quiñónez (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, the record of 8 wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Independiente del Valle Analysis

Independiente del Valle approach this game with the confidence of a side sitting 1 on 67 points after 26 outings. With 22 wins, 1 draws, and 3 defeats plus a goal balance of 64:26, they continue to show very strong form and are on a winning streak. Their attacking quality is driven by Matías Perello (6 goals), Emerson Pata (6 goals), Djorkaeff Reasco (5 goals), with creative support from Arón Rodríguez (5 assists), Juan Viacava (4 assists), Djorkaeff Reasco (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 12 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses, which underlines a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Barcelona SC won 3 times, Independiente del Valle won 8 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:23 from Barcelona SC's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2.4 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (96.7%)
Predicted formations: Barcelona SC 4-2-3-1 / Independiente del Valle 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Barcelona SC wins 3, draws 4, Independiente del Valle wins 8

Standings

Liga Pro: Regular season
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 24 2 4 73:33 40 74
W W L D W
2 30 14 9 7 51:27 24 51
W W D D W
3 30 15 6 9 41:33 8 51
W L W W L
4 30 14 8 8 33:28 5 50
D D D W W
5 30 13 7 10 31:24 7 46
D W D L W
6 30 11 11 8 32:25 7 44
D D W L W
7 30 11 8 11 33:34 -1 41
L W D L W
8 30 10 9 11 31:32 -1 39
L D W L L
9 30 10 9 11 33:36 -3 39
W L L W W
10 30 10 9 11 25:34 -9 39
L W D W L
11 30 9 11 10 35:38 -3 38
L D D W D
12 30 10 6 14 25:37 -12 36
D L W L D
13 30 9 6 15 36:47 -11 33
L W L L L
14 30 10 2 18 28:42 -14 32
W L L W L
15 30 7 7 16 19:31 -12 28
D L W L L
16 30 5 6 19 17:42 -25 21
D L L W L
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