FRANCE LIGUE 1
--.--.---- --:--
Stade du Moustoir
Referee: C. Turpin
Lorient
Match Timeline
Le Havre
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
33'
A. Faye
Le Havre
🟨
41'
Laurent Abergel
Lorient
🟨
45+2'
Enzo Koffi
Le Havre
🔄
46'
E. K. Vinette ↔ T. Pembele
Le Havre
🟨
53'
Noah Cadiou
Lorient
62'
I. Soumare · Assist: S. Boufal
Le Havre
🔄
66'
L. Abergel ↔ A. Avom
Lorient
🔄
67'
J. Makengo ↔ D. Karim
Lorient
🔄
67'
P. Pagis ↔ A. Tosin
Lorient
🔄
73'
N. Adjei ↔ B. Meite
Lorient
🔄
73'
F. Doucoure ↔ L. Nego
Le Havre
🔄
73'
Y. Kechta ↔ S. Ebonog
Le Havre
🔄
81'
B. Dieng ↔ S. Soumano
Lorient
🔄
85'
S. Boufal ↔ F. Mambimbi
Le Havre
🔄
90+3'
A. Sangante ↔ G. Gomis
Le Havre

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 79.9%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 63.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
79.9%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
63.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.6%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Lorient Win 79.9%
Draw 0%
Le Havre Win 20.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Lorient1.51
Le Havre1.07
Recent Form (Last 5)
Lorient Lorient
WWDLW
60 GF / 50 GA
Le Havre Le Havre
WLDWL
30 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.62
Average Goals Scored
0.88
1.35
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
19
BTTS Yes
17
17
Over 2.5
11
4.22
Shots on Goal
3.59

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Lorient Lorient 37 matches
Le Havre Le Havre 34 matches
Lorient Statistic Le Havre
14 Wins 6
13 Draws 14
10 Losses 14
60 Goals For 30
50 Goals Against 46
1.62 Avg Goals Scored 0.88
1.35 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
19 BTTS Yes 17
32 Over 1.5 21
17 Over 2.5 11
14 Over 3.5 6
10 Clean Sheets 7
10 Failed To Score 15
4.22 Shots On Goal 3.59
12.05 Total Shots 11.32
3.57 Corners 4.41
46.2% Ball Possession 47.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Le Havre. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Lorient expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Le Havre in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Le Havre having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day.

Lorient Analysis

So far, Lorient have built a campaign that leaves them 9 in the table on 45 points from 33 matches. Their overall return of 11 wins, 12 draws, and 10 losses with goals at 48:49 reflects mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking weight is carried by Ahmadou Bamba Dieng (10 goals), Pablo Pagis (10 goals), A. Tosin (5 goals), with creative support from A. Kouassi (7 assists), Pablo Pagis (5 assists), Bamo Meïté (3 assists), while defensively they have appeared quite vulnerable. At home, their split return of 8 wins, 6 draws, and 2 losses fits a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Le Havre Analysis

Le Havre sit 14 with 32 points after 33 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 6 wins, 14 draws, and 13 defeats with a 30:44 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on I. Soumare (7 goals), R. Ndiaye (4 goals), F. Doucoure (3 goals), with creative support from I. Soumare (5 assists), R. Ndiaye (4 assists), Sofiane Boufal (3 assists), while defensively they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have managed 1 wins, 6 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 12 head-to-head meetings, Lorient won 4 times, Le Havre won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:20 from Lorient's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.25 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Lorient 3-4-2-1 / Le Havre 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Lorient 1, Le Havre 5
H2H summary: Lorient wins 4, draws 4, Le Havre wins 4
Stats
Lorient Lorient
Le Havre Le Havre
Shots on Goal
2
Shots on Goal
4
Shots off Goal
5
Shots off Goal
3
Blocked Shots
5
Blocked Shots
0
5 Corner Kicks 1
11 Fouls 11
1 Offsides 2
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 7
2 Shots on Goal 4
5 Shots off Goal 3
5 Blocked Shots 0
3 Shots insidebox 4
9 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 2
481 Total passes 327
431 Passes accurate 260
1.30 expected_goals 1.25
🟨 2 Yellow Cards 1 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Lorient
Formation
Le Havre
Y. Mvogo
Y. Mvogo
N. Adjei
N. Adjei
M. Talbi
M. Talbi
A. Faye
A. Faye
P. Katseris
P. Katseris
N. Cadiou
N. Cadiou
L. Abergel
L. Abergel
A. Kouassi
A. Kouassi
J. Makengo
J. Makengo
P. Pagis
P. Pagis
B. Dieng
B. Dieng
M. Diaw
M. Diaw
A. Sangante
A. Sangante
E. Youte Kinkoue
E. Youte Kinkoue
G. Lloris
G. Lloris
E. K. Vinette
E. K. Vinette
R. Ndiaye
R. Ndiaye
Y. Kechta
Y. Kechta
F. Doucoure
F. Doucoure
S. Boufal
🎯
S. Boufal
I. Soumare
I. Soumare
A. Samatta
A. Samatta
Lorient 3-4-2-1
Starting XI
38
Y. Mvogo
G
32
N. Adjei
↓ 73'
D
3
M. Talbi
D
25
A. Faye
⚽ 33'
D
77
P. Katseris
M
8
N. Cadiou
🟨 53'
M
6
L. Abergel
↓ 66' 🟨 41'
M
43
A. Kouassi
M
17
J. Makengo
↓ 67'
F
10
P. Pagis
↓ 67'
F
12
B. Dieng
↓ 81'
F
Substitutes
1
B. Leroy
G
2
Igor Silva
D
5
B. Meite
↑ 73'
D
29
D. Karim
↑ 67'
M
62
A. Avom
↑ 66'
M
15
A. Tosin
↑ 67'
F
44
D. Yongwa
D
9
M. Bamba
F
28
S. Soumano
↑ 81'
F
Le Havre 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
99
M. Diaw
G
93
A. Sangante
↓ 90+3'
D
6
E. Youte Kinkoue
D
4
G. Lloris
D
27
E. K. Vinette
↓ 46' 🟨 45+2'
D
14
R. Ndiaye
M
8
Y. Kechta
↓ 73'
M
13
F. Doucoure
↓ 73'
M
17
S. Boufal
🎯 62' ↓ 85'
M
45
I. Soumare
⚽ 62'
M
25
A. Samatta
F
Substitutes
77
L. Mpasi-Nzau
G
10
F. Mambimbi
↑ 85'
F
11
G. Kyeremeh
F
7
L. Nego
↑ 73'
D
32
T. Pembele
↑ 46'
D
26
S. Ebonog
↑ 73'
M
78
D. N. Mosengo
M
20
N. Obougou
F
33
G. Gomis
↑ 90+3'
D
Last matches: Lorient
08.08.26
Fri
Lorient
Angers
1
2
L
04.08.26
Fri
Lorient
UNFP
5
1
W
25.07.26
Fri
Lorient
Guingamp
2
0
W
18.07.26
Fri
Lorient
Nantes
1
0
W
11.07.26
Fri
Lorient
Concarneau
2
1
W
10.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Metz
4
0
W
02.05.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
2
2
D
26.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
3
L
18.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Marseille
2
0
W
12.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Lyon
0
2
L
05.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris FC
1
1
D
21.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Toulouse
0
1
L
14.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lens
2
1
W
08.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
1
D
04.03.26
Cou
Lorient
Nice
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Auxerre
2
2
D
22.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Nice
3
3
D
15.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Angers
2
0
W
07.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
04.02.26
Cou
Lorient
Paris FC
2
0
W
Last matches: Le Havre
08.08.26
Fri
Le Havre
Oviedo
2
3
L
04.08.26
Fri
Le Havre
Ipswich
0
1
L
31.07.26
Fri
Le Havre
Laval
1
1
D
25.07.26
Fri
Le Havre
RED Star FC 93
2
1
W
17.07.26
Fri
Le Havre
Amiens
1
2
L
10.05.26
Lig
Le Havre
Marseille
0
1
L
03.05.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lille
1
1
D
26.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Metz
4
4
D
18.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Angers
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nice
1
1
D
05.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Auxerre
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris FC
2
3
L
15.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lyon
0
0
D
08.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
28.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
0
1
L
22.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nantes
0
2
L
15.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Toulouse
2
1
W
08.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Strasbourg
2
1
W
30.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lens
0
1
L
24.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Monaco
0
0
D
H2H: Lorient vs Le Havre
17.05.26
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
2
L
21.09.25
H2H
Le Havre
Lorient
1
1
D
28.01.24
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
3
3
D
03.09.23
H2H
Le Havre
Lorient
3
0
L
29.07.23
H2H
Le Havre
Lorient
0
2
W
29.07.23
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
2
0
W
16.03.20
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
0
D
19.10.19
H2H
Le Havre
Lorient
2
2
D
17.05.19
H2H
Le Havre
Lorient
2
3
W
28.07.18
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
0
D
05.03.18
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
1
0
W
02.10.17
H2H
Le Havre
Lorient
3
2
L
07.01.12
H2H
Le Havre
Lorient
4
3
L
Last matches: Lorient
04.08.26
Fri
Lorient
UNFP
5
1
W
18.07.26
Fri
Lorient
Nantes
1
0
W
26.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Strasbourg
2
3
L
18.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Marseille
2
0
W
05.04.26
Lig
Lorient
Paris FC
1
1
D
14.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Lens
2
1
W
04.03.26
Cou
Lorient
Nice
0
0
D
01.03.26
Lig
Lorient
Auxerre
2
2
D
15.02.26
Lig
Lorient
Angers
2
0
W
04.02.26
Cou
Lorient
Paris FC
2
0
W
31.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Nantes
2
1
W
04.01.26
Lig
Lorient
Metz
1
1
D
07.12.25
Lig
Lorient
Lyon
1
0
W
30.11.25
Lig
Lorient
Nice
3
1
W
09.11.25
Lig
Lorient
Toulouse
1
1
D
29.10.25
Lig
Lorient
Paris Saint Germain
1
1
D
19.10.25
Lig
Lorient
Stade Brestois 29
3
3
D
27.09.25
Lig
Lorient
Monaco
3
1
W
30.08.25
Lig
Lorient
Lille
1
7
L
24.08.25
Lig
Lorient
Rennes
4
0
W
H2H at home: Lorient
17.05.26
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
2
L
28.01.24
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
3
3
D
29.07.23
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
2
0
W
16.03.20
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
0
D
28.07.18
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
0
D
05.03.18
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
1
0
W
Last matches: Le Havre
08.08.26
Fri
Le Havre
Oviedo
2
3
L
04.08.26
Fri
Le Havre
Ipswich
0
1
L
03.05.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lille
1
1
D
18.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Angers
1
1
D
12.04.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nice
1
1
D
22.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Paris FC
2
3
L
08.03.26
Lig
Le Havre
Stade Brestois 29
0
2
L
22.02.26
Lig
Le Havre
Nantes
0
2
L
30.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Lens
0
1
L
18.01.26
Lig
Le Havre
Rennes
1
1
D
14.12.25
Lig
Le Havre
Lyon
0
1
L
22.11.25
Lig
Le Havre
Paris Saint Germain
0
3
L
02.11.25
Lig
Le Havre
Toulouse
0
0
D
26.10.25
Lig
Le Havre
Auxerre
1
0
W
18.10.25
Lig
Le Havre
Marseille
2
6
L
28.09.25
Lig
Le Havre
Metz
0
0
D
14.09.25
Lig
Le Havre
Strasbourg
0
1
L
16.08.25
Lig
Le Havre
Monaco
1
3
L
17.05.25
Lig
Le Havre
Strasbourg
3
2
W
04.05.25
Lig
Le Havre
Auxerre
2
1
W
H2H away: Le Havre
17.05.26
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
2
W
28.01.24
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
3
3
D
29.07.23
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
2
0
L
16.03.20
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
0
D
28.07.18
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
0
0
D
05.03.18
H2H
Lorient
Le Havre
1
0
L

Standings

Ligue 1
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 34 24 4 6 74:29 45 76
L W W D W
2 34 22 4 8 66:35 31 70
W L W D D
3 34 18 7 9 52:37 15 61
L W D W D
4 34 18 6 10 53:40 13 60
L L W W W
5 34 18 5 11 63:45 18 59
W W L D L
6 34 17 8 9 59:50 9 59
L W L W W
7 34 16 6 12 60:54 6 54
L L W D D
8 34 15 8 11 58:47 11 53
W W D L W
9 34 11 12 11 48:51 -3 45
L W D L W
10 33 12 8 13 47:46 1 44
W W D L L
11 34 11 11 12 47:50 -3 44
W L W L W
12 34 10 9 15 43:55 -12 39
D L L L D
13 34 9 9 16 29:48 -19 36
D D L L D
14 34 7 14 13 32:44 -12 35
W L D D D
15 34 8 10 16 34:44 -10 34
W W W L D
16 34 7 11 16 37:60 -23 32
W D D L D
17 33 5 8 20 29:52 -23 23
L W L L D
18 34 3 8 23 32:76 -44 17
D L L D L
Champions League
Champions League Qualification
UEFA Europa League
Conference League Qualification
Relegation Playoffs
Relegation

Missing Players

Lorient 1 missing
-
T. Le Bris
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
Le Havre 5 missing
-
A. Toure
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
Y. Zouaoui
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
-
S. Zagadou
Missing Fixture Injury
OUT
-
L. Gourna-Douath
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT
-
A. Seko
Missing Fixture Yellow Cards
OUT