COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
--.--.---- --:--
Estadio Bello Horizonte
Referee: J. A. Mayorga Londono
Llaneros
Match Timeline
Fortaleza FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
2'
Juan Castilla
Llaneros
3'
J. Cajares · Assist: Y. Diaz
Fortaleza FC
18'
Jhon Vasquez · Assist: L. Miranda
Llaneros
🟨
35'
Neider Ospina
Llaneros
35'
N. Ospina
Llaneros
🔄
46'
S. Vivas ↔ S. Ramirez
Fortaleza FC
🔄
46'
I. Montano ↔ R. D. Rivas Torres
Fortaleza FC
🟨
50'
Jhojan Escobar
Llaneros
🟨
50'
Sebastián Ramírez
Fortaleza FC
🔄
55'
S. Navarro ↔ J. Blanco
Fortaleza FC
🔄
61'
T. Wilke ↔ J. Herrera
Fortaleza FC
🟨
62'
Sebastian Herrera
Fortaleza FC
🔄
62'
Kelvin Osorio ↔ J. Contreras
Llaneros
🔄
62'
Y. Mena ↔ C. Cortes
Llaneros
🟨
64'
Howell Mena
Llaneros
🔄
70'
N. Ospina ↔ J. Ramirez
Llaneros
🔄
72'
A. Copete ↔ J. Velasquez
Fortaleza FC
🔄
74'
J. Escobar Salcedo ↔ J. Medranda
Llaneros
🔄
74'
Jhon Vasquez ↔ D. Quintero
Llaneros
90'
C. Cortes · Assist: J. Ramirez
Llaneros

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 67.6%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 62.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 48.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
67.6%
-
BTTS Yes
62.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
48.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Llaneros Win 67.6%
Draw 14.9%
Fortaleza FC Win 17.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Llaneros1.05
Fortaleza FC1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Llaneros Llaneros
WWDLW
19 GF / 22 GA
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
WLDWL
23 GF / 28 GA
Key Stats
0.86
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1
Average Goals Conceded
1.33
10
BTTS Yes
15
4
Over 2.5
9
3.62
Shots on Goal
3.86

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Llaneros Llaneros 22 matches
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC 21 matches
Llaneros Statistic Fortaleza FC
5 Wins 5
11 Draws 9
6 Losses 7
19 Goals For 23
22 Goals Against 28
0.86 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1 Avg Goals Conceded 1.33
10 BTTS Yes 15
15 Over 1.5 17
4 Over 2.5 9
2 Over 3.5 3
7 Clean Sheets 4
7 Failed To Score 4
3.62 Shots On Goal 3.86
10.57 Total Shots 12.14
5.14 Corners 4.52
48% Ball Possession 54.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This fixture has the profile of a tight matchup, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity likely to keep the contest close. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Fortaleza FC. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Llaneros expected to line up in 4-1-4-1 and Fortaleza FC in 4-4-1-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fortaleza FC having the stronger overall control. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns.

Llaneros Analysis

Llaneros approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 22 points from 19 matches. Their record of 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 losses, together with goals at 17:20, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Neider Ospina (1 goals), with creative support from Jhon Vásquez (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses, which indicates a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Fortaleza FC Analysis

Fortaleza FC approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 15 with 22 points from 19 matches. Their record of 5 wins, 7 draws, and 7 losses, together with goals at 22:27, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through J. Solís (1 goals), with creative support from S. Vivas (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Llaneros won 4 times, Fortaleza FC won 6 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:15 from Llaneros's perspective. 5 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 1.87 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (85.1%)
Predicted formations: Llaneros 4-1-4-1 / Fortaleza FC 4-4-1-1
H2H summary: Llaneros wins 4, draws 5, Fortaleza FC wins 6
Stats
Llaneros Llaneros
Fortaleza FC Fortaleza FC
Shots on Goal
9
Shots on Goal
2
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
1
Blocked Shots
1
Blocked Shots
6
6 Corner Kicks 3
12 Fouls 12
7 Offsides 2
43% Ball Possession 57%
13 Total Shots 9
9 Shots on Goal 2
3 Shots off Goal 1
1 Blocked Shots 6
8 Shots insidebox 5
5 Shots outsidebox 4
1 Goalkeeper Saves 6
292 Total passes 403
249 Passes accurate 339
0.88 expected_goals 0.70
🟨 4 Yellow Cards 2 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Llaneros
Formation
Fortaleza FC
R. Romana Garavito
R. Romana Garavito
J. Pertuz
J. Pertuz
H. H. Mena Posada
H. H. Mena Posada
F. Meza
F. Meza
J. Escobar Salcedo
J. Escobar Salcedo
J. Castilla
J. Castilla
Jhon Vasquez
Jhon Vasquez
N. Ospina
N. Ospina
Kelvin Osorio
Kelvin Osorio
L. Miranda
🎯
L. Miranda
Y. Mena
Y. Mena
W. Barlasina
W. Barlasina
J. Cajares
J. Cajares
Y. Diaz
🎯
Y. Diaz
A. Copete
A. Copete
J. Castillo
J. Castillo
L. Pico
L. Pico
I. Montano
I. Montano
S. Navarro
S. Navarro
S. Vivas
S. Vivas
J. Solis
J. Solis
T. Wilke
T. Wilke
Llaneros 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
22
R. Romana Garavito
G
4
J. Pertuz
D
2
H. H. Mena Posada
🟨 64'
D
21
F. Meza
D
16
J. Escobar Salcedo
↓ 74' 🟨 50'
D
13
J. Castilla
🟨 2'
M
95
Jhon Vasquez
⚽ 18' ↓ 74'
M
10
N. Ospina
⚽ 35' ↓ 70' 🟨 35'
M
33
Kelvin Osorio
↓ 62'
M
7
L. Miranda
🎯 18'
M
17
Y. Mena
↓ 62'
F
Substitutes
12
J. Loaiza
G
32
F. Castaneda
F
70
J. Contreras
↑ 62'
F
9
C. Cortes
⚽ 90' ↑ 62'
F
94
J. Medranda
↑ 74'
D
26
D. Quintero
↑ 74'
D
8
J. Ramirez
🎯 90' ↑ 70'
M
31
E. Pardo
D
30
J. Castro
D
Fortaleza FC 4-1-4-1
Starting XI
1
W. Barlasina
G
16
J. Cajares
⚽ 3'
D
6
Y. Diaz
🎯 3'
D
2
A. Copete
↓ 72'
D
23
J. Castillo
D
14
L. Pico
M
7
I. Montano
↓ 46'
M
8
S. Navarro
↓ 55'
M
28
S. Vivas
↓ 46'
M
30
J. Solis
M
29
T. Wilke
↓ 61'
F
Substitutes
12
C. Santander
G
10
J. Velasquez
↑ 72'
M
3
D. Ramirez
D
17
K. A. Balanta Carabali
M
11
A. Batioja
F
21
S. Ramirez
↑ 46' 🟨 50'
M
9
J. Herrera
↑ 61' 🟨 62'
F
20
J. Blanco
↑ 55'
F
26
R. D. Rivas Torres
↑ 46'
M
Last matches: Llaneros
23.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
1
0
W
19.08.26
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
31.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
24.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
02.05.26
Pri
Llaneros
Chico
0
3
L
26.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
0
0
D
19.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Junior
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
01.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Santa Fe
1
0
W
30.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Once Caldas
1
1
D
26.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
America de Cali
0
0
D
17.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Cucuta
2
2
D
14.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Atletico Nacional
0
2
L
09.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Jaguares
2
0
W
05.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
14.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Millonarios
1
2
L
10.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
07.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
02.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
Last matches: Fortaleza FC
23.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
2
L
08.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
2
0
W
01.08.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
26.07.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
03.05.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
26.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
23.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
America de Cali
1
2
L
19.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Águilas Doradas
2
0
W
03.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
31.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Millonarios
2
2
D
25.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pasto
1
2
L
19.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Junior
1
2
L
05.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Jaguares
2
1
W
01.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Once Caldas
2
4
L
16.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Chico
2
1
W
13.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
4
L
07.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Santa Fe
1
1
D
31.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
1
1
D
H2H: Llaneros vs Fortaleza FC
04.08.26
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
3
1
W
27.01.26
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
1
D
04.10.25
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
18.04.25
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
0
L
03.09.23
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
1
2
L
04.06.23
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
0
1
W
24.05.23
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
2
1
W
20.03.23
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
1
D
06.11.22
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
15.10.22
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
2
W
16.09.22
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
1
0
L
14.03.22
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
23.11.21
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
19.11.21
H2H
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
3
1
L
22.08.21
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
Last matches: Llaneros
24.07.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
26.04.26
Pri
Llaneros
Alianza Valledupar
0
0
D
30.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Once Caldas
1
1
D
17.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Cucuta
2
2
D
09.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Jaguares
2
0
W
05.03.26
Pri
Llaneros
Internacional de Bogota
1
1
D
20.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Independiente Medellin
2
2
D
10.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
0
1
L
02.02.26
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pri
Llaneros
Bucaramanga
1
1
D
14.11.25
Pri
Llaneros
Envigado
0
3
L
31.10.25
Pri
Llaneros
Atletico Nacional
0
3
L
19.10.25
Pri
Llaneros
Once Caldas
2
0
W
04.10.25
Pri
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
20.09.25
Pri
Llaneros
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
06.09.25
Pri
Llaneros
Deportes Tolima
1
0
W
23.08.25
Pri
Llaneros
Deportivo Pasto
2
1
W
11.08.25
Pri
Llaneros
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
23.07.25
Pri
Llaneros
Chico
2
1
W
11.07.25
Pri
Llaneros
America de Cali
0
0
D
H2H at home: Llaneros
04.08.26
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
3
1
W
04.10.25
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
03.09.23
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
1
2
L
24.05.23
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
2
1
W
06.11.22
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
14.03.22
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
23.11.21
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
22.08.21
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D
Last matches: Fortaleza FC
26.07.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
26.04.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
0
1
L
31.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Millonarios
2
2
D
19.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
0
2
L
16.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Junior
1
2
L
01.03.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Cali
1
1
D
21.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Once Caldas
2
4
L
13.02.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
1
4
L
31.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Cucuta
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportivo Pereira
0
0
D
08.12.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
0
1
L
26.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Bucaramanga
2
1
W
22.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Santa Fe
0
3
L
14.11.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Union Magdalena
0
2
L
29.10.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Internacional de Bogota
1
0
W
17.10.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Independiente Medellin
1
3
L
04.10.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Llaneros
0
0
D
21.09.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Millonarios
2
3
L
31.08.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
17.08.25
Pri
Fortaleza FC
Atletico Nacional
2
2
D
H2H away: Fortaleza FC
04.08.26
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
3
1
L
04.10.25
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
03.09.23
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
1
2
W
24.05.23
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
2
1
L
06.11.22
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
0
D
14.03.22
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
1
W
23.11.21
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
0
1
W
22.08.21
H2H
Llaneros
Fortaleza FC
1
1
D