ECUADOR LIGA PRO
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Estadio Federativo Reina del Cisne
Referee: Franklin Andres Congo Viteri, Ecuador
Libertad
Match Timeline
Macara
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
5'
A. Chere · Assist: E. Patta
Libertad
🟨
31'
Jostin Bravo
Libertad
🟨
31'
Santiago Etchebarne
Macara
🟨
42'
Jean Carlos Estacio
Macara
🟨
57'
Jackson Rodríguez
Libertad
🔄
58'
J. Estacio ↔ T. Chamba
Macara
🔄
68'
J. Bravo ↔ C. Valencia
Libertad
🔄
74'
A. I. Campana ↔ J. Klinger
Macara
🔄
74'
L. Ferro ↔ M. Cabeza
Macara
🔄
76'
V. Branda ↔ H. Batalla
Libertad
🔄
76'
A. Chere ↔ E. Caicedo
Libertad
🟨
82'
Xavier Pineda
Libertad
🔄
82'
J. Cazares ↔ C. Caicedo
Macara
🔄
83'
D. Bolanos ↔ J. Chala
Macara
🔄
89'
D. Coronel ↔ S. Bueno
Libertad

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 63.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.7%
-
BTTS Yes
63.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Libertad Win 41.7%
Draw 11.3%
Macara Win 46.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Libertad1.1
Macara1.24
Recent Form (Last 5)
Libertad Libertad
WWDLW
28 GF / 29 GA
Macara Macara
WLDWL
35 GF / 29 GA
Key Stats
1.12
Average Goals Scored
1.3
1.16
Average Goals Conceded
1.07
12
BTTS Yes
14
12
Over 2.5
14
3.72
Shots on Goal
4.64

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Libertad Libertad 25 matches
Macara Macara 27 matches
Libertad Statistic Macara
9 Wins 12
7 Draws 6
9 Losses 9
28 Goals For 35
29 Goals Against 29
1.12 Avg Goals Scored 1.3
1.16 Avg Goals Conceded 1.07
12 BTTS Yes 14
16 Over 1.5 21
12 Over 2.5 14
5 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 9
8 Failed To Score 6
3.72 Shots On Goal 4.64
10.88 Total Shots 12.52
3.56 Corners 4.68
44.3% Ball Possession 47.8%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Macara's more proactive style and Libertad's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Macara. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Libertad expected to line up in 3-4-3 and Macara in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Macara having the stronger overall control.

Libertad Analysis

From their first 25 matches, Libertad have collected 34 points and now occupy 8 place in the table. The record of 9 wins, 7 draws, and 9 defeats, together with a 28:29 goal balance, points toward very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Much of their attacking threat comes through Vilington Branda (6 goals), Gabriel Cortez (4 goals), Antony Chére (4 goals), with creative support from Gabriel Cortez (4 assists), J. Guisamano (2 assists), Enrique Caicedo (2 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, the record of 7 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses points toward a very strong split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Macara Analysis

Macara come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 2 place with 42 points after 25 matches. With 12 wins, 6 draws, and 7 defeats plus a goal balance of 33:25, they continue to show very strong form with results showing strong momentum. Their attacking quality is driven by Franco Posse (9 goals), Agustin Campana (4 goals), Federico Paz (3 goals), with creative support from Franco Posse (3 assists), Matías Miranda (3 assists), Jose Klinger (3 assists), and at the back they have appeared very solid. Away from home, they have managed 5 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 6 head-to-head meetings, Libertad won 1 times, Macara won 4 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:9 from Libertad's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.83 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.7%)
Predicted formations: Libertad 3-4-3 / Macara 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Libertad wins 1, draws 1, Macara wins 4

Standings

Liga Pro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 27 22 2 3 66:28 38 68
D W W W W
2 27 14 5 8 31:26 5 47
W W L W W
3 27 13 6 8 35:27 8 45
W L D W W
4 27 12 8 7 47:25 22 44
D W D L W
5 27 12 5 10 27:22 5 41
L W W L W
6 27 10 9 8 28:22 6 39
L W D L D
7 27 10 7 10 29:30 -1 37
L W D W W
8 27 9 9 9 33:34 -1 36
W D D W W
9 27 9 9 9 27:30 -3 36
W W D D L
10 27 9 8 10 29:30 -1 35
L L W L D
11 27 9 8 10 23:32 -9 32
W L W D L
12 27 9 5 13 23:35 -12 32
L D L L L
13 27 8 6 13 31:41 -10 30
L L W D L
14 27 9 2 16 26:38 -12 29
W L L L L
15 27 6 6 15 17:29 -12 24
L L L D L
16 27 5 5 17 14:37 -23 20
W L L W L
Play-offs
Relegation Playoffs