ENGLAND PREMIER LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Elland Road
Referee: M. Oliver
Leeds
Match Timeline
Brighton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
60'
B. Aaronson ↔ L. Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
60'
A. Tanaka ↔ S. Longstaff
Leeds
🔄
60'
D. James ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds
🔄
65'
J. Veltman ↔ D. Gomez
Brighton
🔄
65'
D. Welbeck ↔ G. Rutter
Brighton
🔄
74'
A. Stach ↔ J. Piroe
Leeds
🔄
82'
C. Baleba ↔ Y. Ayari
Brighton
🔄
82'
J. Hinshelwood ↔ C. Kostoulas
Brighton
🟨
90+7'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Leeds
🔄
90+1'
S. Bornauw ↔ S. Byram
Leeds
🔄
90+3'
Y. Minteh ↔ S. March
Brighton
90'
D. Calvert-Lewin
Leeds

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.1%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.2%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Leeds Win 39.4%
Draw 11.9%
Brighton Win 48.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds1.32
Brighton1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leeds Leeds
WWDLW
57 GF / 58 GA
Brighton Brighton
WLDWL
54 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
25
BTTS Yes
22
23
Over 2.5
20
4.34
Shots on Goal
4.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leeds Leeds 41 matches
Brighton Brighton 38 matches
Leeds Statistic Brighton
12 Wins 15
16 Draws 11
13 Losses 12
57 Goals For 54
58 Goals Against 46
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
25 BTTS Yes 22
31 Over 1.5 32
23 Over 2.5 20
16 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 8
4.34 Shots On Goal 4.55
13.29 Total Shots 12.97
4.61 Corners 4.84
46.3% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Brighton's more proactive style and Leeds's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Brighton. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leeds expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Brighton in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Brighton having the stronger overall control.

Leeds Analysis

Leeds approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 44 points from 36 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 14 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 48:53, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Calvert-Lewin (13 goals), Noah Okafor (8 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (5 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Brighton Analysis

So far, Brighton have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 53 points from 36 matches. The record of 14 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 52:42 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Welbeck (13 goals), Diego Gómez (5 goals), J. Hinshelwood (5 goals), with creative support from Y. Minteh (4 assists), J. Hinshelwood (3 assists), Georginio Rutter (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Leeds won 2 times, Brighton won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:23 from Leeds's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Leeds 3-5-2 / Brighton 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Leeds 6, Brighton 5
H2H summary: Leeds wins 2, draws 3, Brighton wins 10
Stats
Leeds Leeds
Brighton Brighton
Shots on Goal
1
Shots on Goal
8
Shots off Goal
3
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
3
Blocked Shots
5
7 Corner Kicks 8
9 Fouls 7
3 Offsides 2
34% Ball Possession 66%
7 Total Shots 19
1 Shots on Goal 8
3 Shots off Goal 6
3 Blocked Shots 5
3 Shots insidebox 15
4 Shots outsidebox 4
7 Goalkeeper Saves 1
280 Total passes 556
188 Passes accurate 471
0.39 expected_goals 3.06
🟨 1 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 0 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

Leeds
Formation
Brighton
K. Darlow
K. Darlow
J. Rodon
J. Rodon
J. Bijol
J. Bijol
S. Bornauw
S. Bornauw
D. James
D. James
A. Stach
A. Stach
E. Ampadu
E. Ampadu
A. Tanaka
A. Tanaka
J. Justin
J. Justin
D. Calvert-Lewin
D. Calvert-Lewin
B. Aaronson
B. Aaronson
B. Verbruggen
B. Verbruggen
J. Veltman
J. Veltman
J. P. van Hecke
J. P. van Hecke
L. Dunk
L. Dunk
M. De Cuyper
M. De Cuyper
P. Gross
P. Gross
C. Baleba
C. Baleba
F. Kadioglu
F. Kadioglu
J. Hinshelwood
J. Hinshelwood
Y. Minteh
Y. Minteh
D. Welbeck
D. Welbeck
Leeds 3-5-2
Starting XI
26
K. Darlow
G
6
J. Rodon
D
15
J. Bijol
D
23
S. Bornauw
↓ 90+1'
D
7
D. James
↓ 60'
M
18
A. Stach
↓ 74'
M
4
E. Ampadu
M
22
A. Tanaka
↓ 60'
M
24
J. Justin
M
9
D. Calvert-Lewin
⚽ 90' 🟨 90+7'
F
11
B. Aaronson
↓ 60'
F
Substitutes
1
Lucas Perri
G
51
A. Cresswell
M
65
J. Lienou
D
25
S. Byram
↑ 90+1'
D
14
L. Nmecha
↑ 60'
F
8
S. Longstaff
↑ 60'
M
10
J. Piroe
↑ 74'
F
29
W. Gnonto
↑ 60'
F
47
R. Chadwick-Chaplin
M
Brighton 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
B. Verbruggen
G
34
J. Veltman
↓ 65'
D
6
J. P. van Hecke
D
5
L. Dunk
D
29
M. De Cuyper
D
30
P. Gross
M
17
C. Baleba
↓ 82'
M
24
F. Kadioglu
M
13
J. Hinshelwood
↓ 82'
M
11
Y. Minteh
↓ 90+3'
M
18
D. Welbeck
↓ 65'
F
Substitutes
23
J. Steele
G
20
J. Milner
M
7
S. March
↑ 90+3'
M
21
O. Boscagli
D
33
M. O'Riley
M
26
Y. Ayari
↑ 82'
M
25
D. Gomez
↑ 65'
M
19
C. Kostoulas
↑ 82'
F
10
G. Rutter
↑ 65'
F
Last matches: Leeds
24.05.26
Pre
Leeds
West Ham
0
3
L
11.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Tottenham
1
1
D
01.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
26.04.26
FA
Leeds
Chelsea
0
1
L
22.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Bournemouth
2
2
D
18.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Wolves
3
0
W
13.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester United
2
1
W
05.04.26
FA
Leeds
West Ham
2
2
D
21.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Brentford
0
0
D
15.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
08.03.26
FA
Leeds
Norwich
3
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Sunderland
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester City
0
1
L
21.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Aston Villa
1
1
D
15.02.26
FA
Leeds
Birmingham
1
1
D
10.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Chelsea
2
2
D
06.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Arsenal
0
4
L
26.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Everton
1
1
D
17.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Fulham
1
0
W
Last matches: Brighton
24.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Manchester United
0
3
L
09.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Wolves
3
0
W
02.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Newcastle
1
3
L
21.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Chelsea
3
0
W
18.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Tottenham
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Liverpool
2
1
W
14.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Sunderland
1
0
W
04.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Arsenal
0
1
L
01.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
2
1
W
21.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Brentford
2
0
W
14.02.26
FA
Brighton
Liverpool
0
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Aston Villa
0
1
L
08.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Crystal Palace
0
1
L
31.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Everton
1
1
D
24.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Fulham
1
2
L
19.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Bournemouth
1
1
D
11.01.26
FA
Brighton
Manchester United
2
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Manchester City
1
1
D
03.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
H2H: Leeds vs Brighton
17.05.26
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
0
W
01.11.25
H2H
Brighton
Leeds
3
0
L
11.03.23
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
2
2
D
27.08.22
H2H
Brighton
Leeds
1
0
L
15.05.22
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
1
D
27.11.21
H2H
Brighton
Leeds
0
0
D
01.05.21
H2H
Brighton
Leeds
2
0
L
16.01.21
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
0
1
L
18.03.17
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
2
0
W
09.12.16
H2H
Brighton
Leeds
2
0
L
29.02.16
H2H
Brighton
Leeds
4
0
L
17.10.15
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
2
L
24.02.15
H2H
Brighton
Leeds
2
0
L
19.08.14
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
0
2
L
11.02.14
H2H
Brighton
Leeds
1
0
L
Last matches: Leeds
01.05.26
Pre
Leeds
Burnley
3
1
W
18.04.26
Pre
Leeds
Wolves
3
0
W
21.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Brentford
0
0
D
08.03.26
FA
Leeds
Norwich
3
0
W
03.03.26
Pre
Leeds
Sunderland
0
1
L
28.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester City
0
1
L
06.02.26
Pre
Leeds
Nottingham Forest
3
1
W
31.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Arsenal
0
4
L
17.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Fulham
1
0
W
04.01.26
Pre
Leeds
Manchester United
1
1
D
20.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Crystal Palace
4
1
W
06.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Liverpool
3
3
D
03.12.25
Pre
Leeds
Chelsea
3
1
W
23.11.25
Pre
Leeds
Aston Villa
1
2
L
24.10.25
Pre
Leeds
West Ham
2
1
W
04.10.25
Pre
Leeds
Tottenham
1
2
L
27.09.25
Pre
Leeds
Bournemouth
2
2
D
30.08.25
Pre
Leeds
Newcastle
0
0
D
18.08.25
Pre
Leeds
Everton
1
0
W
H2H at home: Leeds
17.05.26
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
0
W
11.03.23
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
2
2
D
15.05.22
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
1
D
16.01.21
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
0
1
L
18.03.17
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
2
0
W
17.10.15
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
2
L
19.08.14
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
0
2
L
Last matches: Brighton
02.05.26
Pre
Brighton
Newcastle
1
3
L
18.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Tottenham
2
2
D
11.04.26
Pre
Brighton
Burnley
2
0
W
14.03.26
Pre
Brighton
Sunderland
1
0
W
21.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Brentford
2
0
W
14.02.26
FA
Brighton
Liverpool
0
3
L
11.02.26
Pre
Brighton
Aston Villa
0
1
L
24.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Fulham
1
2
L
11.01.26
FA
Brighton
Manchester United
2
1
W
07.01.26
Pre
Brighton
Manchester City
1
1
D
30.12.25
Pre
Brighton
West Ham
2
2
D
27.12.25
Pre
Brighton
Arsenal
1
2
L
13.12.25
Pre
Brighton
Liverpool
0
2
L
30.11.25
Pre
Brighton
Nottingham Forest
2
0
W
09.11.25
Pre
Brighton
Crystal Palace
0
0
D
25.10.25
Pre
Brighton
Manchester United
2
4
L
05.10.25
Pre
Brighton
Wolves
1
1
D
27.09.25
Pre
Brighton
Chelsea
3
1
W
13.09.25
Pre
Brighton
Bournemouth
1
2
L
24.08.25
Pre
Brighton
Everton
0
2
L
H2H away: Brighton
17.05.26
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
0
L
11.03.23
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
2
2
D
15.05.22
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
1
D
16.01.21
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
0
1
W
18.03.17
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
2
0
L
17.10.15
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
1
2
W
19.08.14
H2H
Leeds
Brighton
0
2
W

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14
Leeds Home
38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship

Missing Players

Leeds 6 missing
-
J. Bogle
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
G. Gudmundsson
Missing Fixture Muscle Injury
OUT
-
P. Struijk
Questionable Hip Injury
OUT
-
F. Buonanotte
Missing Fixture Hamstring Injury
OUT
-
I. Gruev
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
N. Okafor
Missing Fixture Calf Injury
OUT
Brighton 5 missing
-
S. Tzimas
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
A. Webster
Missing Fixture Knee Injury
OUT
-
D. Gomez
Questionable Knee Injury
OUT
-
M. Wieffer
Questionable Injury
OUT
-
K. Mitoma
Missing Fixture Thigh Injury
OUT