ENGLAND › PREMIER LEAGUE
17.05.2026 14:00
Elland Road
Referee: M. Oliver
Leeds
Match Timeline
Brighton
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🔄
60'
B. Aaronson ↔ L. Nmecha
Leeds
🔄
60'
A. Tanaka ↔ S. Longstaff
Leeds
🔄
60'
D. James ↔ W. Gnonto
Leeds
🔄
65'
J. Veltman ↔ D. Gomez
Brighton
🔄
65'
D. Welbeck ↔ G. Rutter
Brighton
🔄
74'
A. Stach ↔ J. Piroe
Leeds
🔄
82'
C. Baleba ↔ Y. Ayari
Brighton
🔄
82'
J. Hinshelwood ↔ C. Kostoulas
Brighton
🟨
90+7'
Dominic Calvert-Lewin
Leeds
🔄
90+1'
S. Bornauw ↔ S. Byram
Leeds
🔄
90+3'
Y. Minteh ↔ S. March
Brighton
⚽
90'
D. Calvert-Lewin
Leeds

Leeds vs Brighton Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
No Draw
Probability 88.1%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 81.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 No Draw
88.1%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
81.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
91.2%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Leeds Win 39.4%
Draw 11.9%
Brighton Win 48.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Leeds1.32
Brighton1.42
Recent Form (Last 5)
Leeds Leeds
WWDLW
57 GF / 58 GA
Brighton Brighton
WLDWL
54 GF / 46 GA
Key Stats
1.39
Average Goals Scored
1.42
1.41
Average Goals Conceded
1.21
25
BTTS Yes
22
23
Over 2.5
20
4.34
Shots on Goal
4.55

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Leeds Leeds 41 matches
Brighton Brighton 38 matches
Leeds Statistic Brighton
12 Wins 15
16 Draws 11
13 Losses 12
57 Goals For 54
58 Goals Against 46
1.39 Avg Goals Scored 1.42
1.41 Avg Goals Conceded 1.21
25 BTTS Yes 22
31 Over 1.5 32
23 Over 2.5 20
16 Over 3.5 7
8 Clean Sheets 10
12 Failed To Score 8
4.34 Shots On Goal 4.55
13.29 Total Shots 12.97
4.61 Corners 4.84
46.3% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

Looking at the broader profile of both teams, this encounter highlights Brighton's more proactive style and Leeds's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Brighton. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Leeds expected to line up in 3-5-2 and Brighton in 4-2-3-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Brighton having the stronger overall control.

Leeds Analysis

Leeds approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 44 points from 36 matches. Their record of 10 wins, 14 draws, and 12 losses, together with goals at 48:53, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through D. Calvert-Lewin (13 goals), Noah Okafor (8 goals), L. Nmecha (6 goals), with creative support from Brenden Aaronson (5 assists), Anton Stach (3 assists), Ilia Gruev (3 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have returned 8 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Brighton Analysis

So far, Brighton have built a campaign that leaves them 7 in the table on 53 points from 36 matches. The record of 14 wins, 11 draws, and 11 defeats, together with a 52:42 goal balance, points toward good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Welbeck (13 goals), Diego Gómez (5 goals), J. Hinshelwood (5 goals), with creative support from Y. Minteh (4 assists), J. Hinshelwood (3 assists), Georginio Rutter (3 assists), while at the back they have looked quite vulnerable. Away from home, their split return of 5 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Leeds won 2 times, Brighton won 10 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:23 from Leeds's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: No Draw
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (88.1%)
Predicted formations: Leeds 3-5-2 / Brighton 4-2-3-1
Missing players: Leeds 6, Brighton 5
H2H summary: Leeds wins 2, draws 3, Brighton wins 10

Standings

Premier League
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 26 7 5 71:27 44 85
W W W W W
2 38 23 9 6 77:35 42 78
L D W W D
3 38 20 11 7 69:50 19 71
W W D W W
4 38 19 8 11 56:49 7 65
W W D L L
5 38 17 9 12 63:53 10 60
D L D L W
6 38 13 18 7 58:54 4 57
D D W W D
7 38 14 12 12 42:48 -6 54
W W D D L
8 38 14 11 13 52:46 6 53
L L W L W
9 38 14 11 13 55:52 3 53
D D L W L
10 38 14 10 14 58:52 6 52
L W D L L
11 38 15 7 16 47:51 -4 52
W D L L W
12 38 14 7 17 53:55 -2 49
L W D W L
13 38 13 10 15 47:50 -3 49
L L D D L
14
Leeds Home
38 11 14 13 49:56 -7 47
L W D W D
15 38 11 12 15 41:51 -10 45
L D L D L
16 38 11 11 16 48:51 -3 44
D L D W W
17 38 10 11 17 48:57 -9 41
W L D W W
18 38 10 9 19 46:65 -19 39
W L L L W
19 38 4 10 24 38:75 -37 22
D L D L L
20 38 3 11 24 27:68 -41 20
D D L D L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Championship