ESTONIA MEISTRILIIGA
--.--.---- --:--
Laagri kunstmurustaadion
Referee: K. Kaivoja
Laagri
Match Timeline
Paide
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
10'
K. Laur · Assist: Rudenko Daniil
Laagri
14'
K. Kriis
Laagri
22'
K. Eerme · Assist: M. Kelement
Laagri
28'
H. Anier · Assist: H. Ojamaa
Paide
🟨
34'
I. Bah
Laagri
35'
R. Sillamaa · Assist: I. Bah
Laagri
40'
A. Binate
Laagri
🟨
50'
K. Laur
Laagri
🟨
51'
H. Ojamaa
Paide
🟨
52'
Daniel Cabral
Paide
🔄
57'
Daniel Cabral ↔ D. Luts
Paide
🔄
57'
K. Piht ↔ A. Surogin
Paide
🔄
57'
H. Ojamaa ↔ O. Hoim
Paide
🟨
66'
J. Vainula
Laagri
66'
H. Anier
Paide
🟨
68'
H. Ojamaa
Paide
🟨
69'
M. Kelement
Laagri
🔄
69'
R. Sillamaa ↔ J. Ndakala
Laagri
🔄
69'
K. Eerme ↔ E. Kajari
Laagri
🔄
70'
I. Bah ↔ I. Kartau
Laagri
🔄
73'
H. Anier ↔ A. Badamosi
Paide
🔄
73'
S. Luts ↔ P. A. Cham
Paide
🔄
77'
A. Binate ↔ S. Kerge
Laagri
🟨
79'
O. Hoim
Paide
🟨
83'
K. Kriis
Laagri
🔄
85'
Rudenko Daniil ↔ K. Ennuste
Laagri

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 45%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
45%
-
BTTS Yes
75.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Laagri Win 38.2%
Draw 16.8%
Paide Win 45%
Expected Goals (xG)
Laagri1.44
Paide1.65
Recent Form (Last 5)
Laagri Laagri
WWDLW
41 GF / 41 GA
Paide Paide
WLDWL
49 GF / 36 GA
Key Stats
1.58
Average Goals Scored
1.69
1.58
Average Goals Conceded
1.24
14
BTTS Yes
21
18
Over 2.5
17
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Laagri Laagri 26 matches
Paide Paide 29 matches
Laagri Statistic Paide
11 Wins 14
3 Draws 8
12 Losses 7
41 Goals For 49
41 Goals Against 36
1.58 Avg Goals Scored 1.69
1.58 Avg Goals Conceded 1.24
14 BTTS Yes 21
23 Over 1.5 22
18 Over 2.5 17
9 Over 3.5 12
7 Clean Sheets 6
5 Failed To Score 2
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match looks like a contest between Paide's more proactive style and Laagri's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Laagri have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Paide. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Paide having the stronger overall control.

Laagri Analysis

With 22 points from 19 games and a place of 8, Laagri still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 7 wins, 1 draws, and 11 defeats, and the 25:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 1 draws, and 5 losses, which indicates a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

Paide Analysis

Paide come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 4 place with 32 points after 19 matches. They have recorded 9 wins, 5 draws, and 5 losses, with a 30:23 goal return and good form over their recent run. In attack they lean heavily on their main attacking players, while defensively they have looked very solid. Away from home, the split of 4 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses supports the view of a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their football identity still points toward balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Laagri won 2 times, Paide won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 13:18 from Laagri's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2.82 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (83.2%)
Predicted formations: Laagri - / Paide 4-3-3
H2H summary: Laagri wins 2, draws 2, Paide wins 7
Last matches: Laagri
02.08.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
1
L
10.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
05.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
2
L
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
17.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
1
L
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
09.05.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
0
3
L
30.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
0
5
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
18.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
2
1
W
11.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
04.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
2
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
07.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
2
1
W
Last matches: Paide
02.08.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
30.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
1
D
23.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
0
W
16.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
3
0
W
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
04.07.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
3
1
W
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
17.06.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
1
0
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
31.05.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
17.05.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
01.05.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
0
1
L
26.04.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
1
2
L
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
19.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
0
W
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
08.04.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
1
W
H2H: Laagri vs Paide
19.07.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
5
2
W
17.06.26
H2H
Paide
Laagri
1
0
L
22.04.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
3
0
W
03.08.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
0
L
17.05.25
H2H
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
1
2
L
08.10.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
4
0
L
06.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
11.06.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
01.04.23
H2H
Paide
Laagri
1
0
L
Last matches: Laagri
10.07.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
20.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Nõmme United
1
3
L
13.06.26
Mei
Laagri
Kuressaare
2
3
L
30.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Trans Narva
3
0
W
16.05.26
Mei
Laagri
Vaprus
1
2
L
25.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Tammeka
1
0
W
22.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
08.04.26
Mei
Laagri
Kalju Nomme
0
2
L
22.03.26
Mei
Laagri
Flora Tallinn
2
0
W
15.03.26
Mei
Laagri
FC Levadia Tallinn
1
3
L
20.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Mārupe
4
0
W
14.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Riga Mariners
4
1
W
07.02.26
Fri
Laagri
Valmiera / BSS
2
1
W
24.01.26
Fri
Laagri
Tartu Welco
3
0
W
17.01.26
Fri
Laagri
PK-35
1
1
D
H2H at home: Laagri
19.07.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
5
2
W
22.04.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
3
0
W
12.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
1
2
L
06.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
11.06.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
L
Last matches: Paide
30.07.26
UEF
Paide
Zira
1
1
D
09.07.26
UEF
Paide
Hegelmann Litauen
1
1
D
28.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
21.06.26
Mei
Paide
Flora Tallinn
2
1
W
14.06.26
Mei
Paide
Kalju Nomme
1
1
D
20.05.26
Mei
Paide
Trans Narva
0
1
L
10.05.26
Mei
Paide
Nõmme United
3
2
W
22.04.26
Mei
Paide
Laagri
2
2
D
12.04.26
Mei
Paide
Tammeka
4
1
W
03.04.26
Mei
Paide
Kuressaare
1
0
W
22.03.26
Mei
Paide
FC Levadia Tallinn
2
2
D
07.03.26
Mei
Paide
Vaprus
2
3
L
07.02.26
Fri
Paide
Trans Narva
1
1
D
19.01.26
Fri
Paide
FK Liepaja
1
3
L
31.07.25
UEF
Paide
AIK Stockholm
0
6
L
10.07.25
UEF
Paide
Magpies
3
2
W
H2H away: Paide
19.07.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
5
2
L
22.04.26
H2H
Laagri
Paide
2
2
D
20.09.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
3
0
L
12.04.25
H2H
Laagri
Paide
1
2
W
06.08.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
W
11.06.23
H2H
Laagri
Paide
0
1
W

Standings

Meistriliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 14 4 1 49:16 33 46
W L D W W
2 19 12 0 7 39:21 18 36
L W W L W
3 20 10 5 5 33:16 17 35
D W D D L
4
Paide Away
20 9 5 6 32:28 4 32
L W D W W
5 20 8 2 10 28:38 -10 26
L W L W L
6 18 8 2 8 21:26 -5 26
L W W W D
7 21 8 1 12 40:48 -8 25
L W W L W
8 20 8 1 11 30:34 -4 25
W W L L L
9 20 5 3 12 19:33 -14 18
D L L L D
10 21 5 1 15 17:48 -31 16
W W L L L
Promotion - Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga