ITALY › SERIE A
17.05.2026 10:00
Allianz Stadium
Referee: D. Massa
Juventus
Match Timeline
Fiorentina
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟥
-5'
Luca Ranieri
Fiorentina
🟨
22'
Marin Pongračić
Fiorentina
🔄
32'
F. Parisi ↔ J. Harrison
Fiorentina
⚽
34'
C. Ndour · Assist: M. Solomon
Fiorentina
🟨
45'
Bremer
Juventus
🔄
46'
T. Koopmeiners ↔ J. Boga
Juventus
🔄
64'
N. Fagioli ↔ A. Gudmundsson
Fiorentina
🔄
64'
M. Brescianini ↔ R. Mandragora
Fiorentina
🔄
64'
L. Ranieri ↔ P. Comuzzo
Fiorentina
🔄
69'
A. Cambiaso ↔ K. Thuram
Juventus
🔄
69'
F. Conceicao ↔ E. Zhegrova
Juventus
VAR
72'
Dušan Vlahović
Juventus
🔄
74'
R. Gosens ↔ L. Balbo
Fiorentina
🔄
81'
L. Kelly ↔ F. Gatti
Juventus
⚽
83'
R. Mandragora
Fiorentina
🟨
85'
Jack Harrison
Fiorentina
🟨
90+1'
Albert Guðmundsson
Fiorentina
🔄
90'
K. Yildiz ↔ F. Miretti
Juventus

Juventus vs Fiorentina Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 77.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS No
Probability 50.9%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Under 2.5
Probability 77.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
77.6%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS No
50.9%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Under 2.5
77.9%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-0
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Juventus Win 77.6%
Draw 0%
Fiorentina Win 22.4%
Expected Goals (xG)
Juventus1.54
Fiorentina1.17
Recent Form (Last 5)
Juventus Juventus
WWDLW
80 GF / 50 GA
Fiorentina Fiorentina
WLDWL
64 GF / 69 GA
Key Stats
1.67
Average Goals Scored
1.25
1.04
Average Goals Conceded
1.35
22
BTTS Yes
29
20
Over 2.5
31
5.83
Shots on Goal
3.94

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Juventus Juventus 48 matches
Fiorentina Fiorentina 51 matches
Juventus Statistic Fiorentina
24 Wins 17
15 Draws 14
9 Losses 20
80 Goals For 64
50 Goals Against 69
1.67 Avg Goals Scored 1.25
1.04 Avg Goals Conceded 1.35
22 BTTS Yes 29
36 Over 1.5 38
20 Over 2.5 31
13 Over 3.5 12
20 Clean Sheets 13
10 Failed To Score 14
5.83 Shots On Goal 3.94
16.31 Total Shots 13.43
5.56 Corners 4.67
55.5% Ball Possession 51.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Juventus's more proactive style and Fiorentina's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The attacking numbers of both teams point toward a more open scoring environment.This game has the potential to be open, with both sides capable of creating several scoring chances. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Juventus expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Fiorentina in 4-3-3, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Fiorentina having the stronger overall control. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Fiorentina. Juventus arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 3 with 68 points compared to Fiorentina in 15 on 38, which underlines the gap in season consistency.

Juventus Analysis

Juventus come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 3 place with 68 points after 36 matches. With 19 wins, 11 draws, and 6 defeats plus a goal balance of 59:30, they continue to show good form over their recent run. Their attacking quality is driven by K. Yildiz (10 goals), J. David (6 goals), Andrea Cambiaso (5 goals), with creative support from K. Yildiz (6 assists), Weston McKennie (5 assists), J. David (4 assists), and at the back they have appeared fairly stable. At home, their record of 10 wins, 7 draws, and 1 losses points to a very strong split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

Fiorentina Analysis

Fiorentina sit 15 with 38 points after 36 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Across the season they have posted 8 wins, 14 draws, and 14 defeats, and the 38:49 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Moise Kean (8 goals), R. Mandragora (6 goals), A. Gudmundsson (5 goals), with creative support from A. Gudmundsson (4 assists), H. Nicolussi Caviglia (4 assists), R. Mandragora (3 assists), while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, they have returned 4 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Juventus won 7 times, Fiorentina won 4 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 15:15 from Juventus's perspective. 4 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 4 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS No
Over/Under 2.5: Under 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (100%)
Predicted formations: Juventus 3-4-2-1 / Fiorentina 4-3-3
Missing players: Juventus 2, Fiorentina 1
H2H summary: Juventus wins 7, draws 4, Fiorentina wins 4

Standings

Serie A
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 38 27 6 5 89:35 54 87
D D W W D
2 38 23 7 8 58:36 22 76
W W L D W
3 38 23 4 11 59:31 28 73
W W W W W
4 38 20 11 7 65:29 36 71
W W W D W
5 38 20 10 8 53:35 18 70
L W L L D
6 38 19 12 7 61:34 27 69
D L W D D
7 38 15 14 9 51:36 15 59
D L W D L
8 38 16 8 14 49:46 3 56
D W W D L
9 38 14 12 12 41:40 1 54
W L L W D
10 38 14 8 16 45:48 -3 50
L L W W D
11 38 14 7 17 46:50 -4 49
L L L W D
12 38 12 9 17 44:63 -19 45
D L W L D
13 38 11 12 15 28:46 -18 45
W L L L W
14 38 11 10 17 40:53 -13 43
W W L D W
15 38 9 15 14 41:50 -9 42
D W D L D
16 38 10 11 17 41:51 -10 41
L L D D L
17 38 10 8 20 28:50 -22 38
W W L W D
18 38 8 10 20 32:57 -25 34
L W W L L
19 38 3 12 23 25:61 -36 21
L D L D D
20 38 2 12 24 26:71 -45 18
L L L L L
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (League phase)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Serie B