COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
24.08.2026 01:15
Estadio Romelio Martinez
Referee: Jonnathan Ortiz, Colombia
Junior
Match Timeline
Once Caldas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
26'
Cristian Barrios
Junior
🟨
42'
Pipe Gómez
Once Caldas
🔄
46'
C. Barrios ↔ J. Sarmiento
Junior
🔄
46'
B. Castrillon ↔ J. Canchimbo
Junior
🔄
59'
A. Roa ↔ J. Quinones
Once Caldas
🔄
59'
J. A. Zapata Ramirez ↔ M. Zuleta
Once Caldas
🔄
63'
K. Perez ↔ F. Fydriszewski
Junior
🟨
66'
Jesús Rivas
Junior
🔄
71'
J. Rivas ↔ G. Paiva
Junior
🔄
72'
P. Gomez ↔ J. Alvarado
Once Caldas
🔄
76'
E. Torres ↔ D. Moreno
Once Caldas
🔄
76'
M. Barrios ↔ H. Guzman
Once Caldas
79'
D. Moreno · Assist: J. D. Cuesta Santos
Once Caldas
🟨
82'
Andres Correa
Once Caldas
🟨
83'
Edwin Herrera
Junior
🔄
84'
E. Herrera ↔ D. Socarras
Junior
88'
G. Paiva · Assist: D. Socarras
Junior
🟨
90+3'
Daniel Soccaras
Junior
🟨
90+2'
Juan David Ríos
Junior
🟨
90+6'
Andres Colorado
Once Caldas
🟨
90+6'
Dayro Moreno
Once Caldas
🟨
90+1'
Jader Quinones
Once Caldas

Junior vs Once Caldas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 56%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 78.8%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 72%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
56%
-
BTTS Yes
78.8%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
72%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Junior Win 56%
Draw 9.9%
Once Caldas Win 34.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Junior1.26
Once Caldas1.44
Recent Form (Last 5)
Junior Junior
WWDLW
44 GF / 42 GA
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WLDWL
42 GF / 31 GA
Key Stats
1.33
Average Goals Scored
1.56
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.15
16
BTTS Yes
20
16
Over 2.5
12
4.09
Shots on Goal
5.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Junior Junior 33 matches
Once Caldas Once Caldas 27 matches
Junior Statistic Once Caldas
14 Wins 9
6 Draws 14
13 Losses 4
44 Goals For 42
42 Goals Against 31
1.33 Avg Goals Scored 1.56
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.15
16 BTTS Yes 20
26 Over 1.5 22
16 Over 2.5 12
6 Over 3.5 7
9 Clean Sheets 5
9 Failed To Score 4
4.09 Shots On Goal 5.68
12.58 Total Shots 14.8
4.76 Corners 5.28
50.6% Ball Possession 53.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and two sides with a fairly similar football identity points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Junior have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Junior expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Once Caldas in 4-1-4-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Once Caldas having the stronger overall control. Even if this develops into a close game, the analytical lean still edges toward Away Win, with a cautious clean-sheet angle toward Once Caldas. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Junior Analysis

Junior approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 2 with 35 points from 19 matches. The overall return of 11 wins, 2 draws, and 6 defeats with a 31:24 goal balance points toward mixed form and are going through a difficult losing run. Going forward they depend heavily on Guillermo Paiva (1 goals), with creative support from Déiber Caicedo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked very solid. At home, the split record of 6 wins, 1 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their broader football approach still suggests balanced attacking football.

Once Caldas Analysis

Placed 5 with 33 points from 19 outings, Once Caldas continue to operate from a strong competitive position. Across the campaign, they have posted 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 losses, while the 31:22 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Andrés Roa (2 goals), Jefry Zapata (2 goals), Michael Barrios (1 goals), with creative support from Juan David Cuesta (2 assists), Andrés Roa (1 assists), Michael Barrios (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, the record of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Junior won 5 times, Once Caldas won 5 times, while 5 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 19:18 from Junior's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 8 matches, with an average of 2.47 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.1%)
Predicted formations: Junior 4-2-3-1 / Once Caldas 4-1-4-1
H2H summary: Junior wins 5, draws 5, Once Caldas wins 5

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification