JAPAN J1 LEAGUE
--.--.---- --:--
Fukuda Denshi Arena
Referee: R. Tanimoto
JEF United Chiba
Match Timeline
Kashima
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
43'
R. Araki · Assist: Y. Suzuki
Kashima
🟨
45+3'
Carlinhos Junior
JEF United Chiba
🔄
46'
M. Shinada ↔ T. Yasui
JEF United Chiba
🟨
53'
Zain Issaka
JEF United Chiba
🟨
61'
Carlinhos Junior
JEF United Chiba
🟥
61'
Carlinhos Junior
JEF United Chiba
🔄
62'
A. Cavric ↔ Y. Matsumura
Kashima
🔄
63'
G. Shibasaki ↔ Y. Higuchi
Kashima
🔄
71'
Z. Issaka ↔ K. Tanaka
JEF United Chiba
🔄
71'
M. Himeno ↔ H. Goya
JEF United Chiba
🔄
76'
R. Araki ↔ S. Morooka
Kashima
🔄
76'
K. Anzai ↔ R. Koike
Kashima
🔄
85'
T. Tsukui ↔ N. Sugiyama
JEF United Chiba
🔄
87'
Leo Ceara ↔ H. Hayashu
Kashima
88'
S. Morooka
Kashima

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 74.5%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 69.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 67.3%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
74.5%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
69.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
67.3%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
84.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
JEF United Chiba Win 21.2%
Draw 4.4%
Kashima Win 74.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
JEF United Chiba0.87
Kashima1.64
Recent Form (Last 5)
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
WWDLW
17 GF / 27 GA
Kashima Kashima
WLDWL
30 GF / 12 GA
Key Stats
1
Average Goals Scored
1.67
1.59
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
10
BTTS Yes
8
9
Over 2.5
6
3.81
Shots on Goal
4.13

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba 17 matches
Kashima Kashima 18 matches
JEF United Chiba Statistic Kashima
3 Wins 12
3 Draws 5
11 Losses 1
17 Goals For 30
27 Goals Against 12
1 Avg Goals Scored 1.67
1.59 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
10 BTTS Yes 8
15 Over 1.5 13
9 Over 2.5 6
2 Over 3.5 2
2 Clean Sheets 10
6 Failed To Score 0
3.81 Shots On Goal 4.13
11.19 Total Shots 12.25
4.56 Corners 5.5
47.8% Ball Possession 57.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Kashima's more proactive style and JEF United Chiba's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Kashima look sharper on recent form, and that momentum could be important in key phases of the match. Given the broader gap between the sides, Away Win looks like the most logical direction, while the clean-sheet expectation leans toward Kashima. Kashima carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 39 points while JEF United Chiba sit 10 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself.

JEF United Chiba Analysis

JEF United Chiba approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 10 with 12 points from 16 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 0 draws, and 13 losses, together with goals at 16:28, reflects poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Much of their threat comes through Hiroto Goya (3 goals), Carlinhos Junior (2 goals), D. Ishikawa (2 goals), with creative support from Z. Issaka (2 assists), N. Sugiyama (2 assists), Hiroto Goya (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. At home, they have managed 2 wins, 0 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Kashima Analysis

Kashima come into this fixture from a strong position, holding 1 place with 39 points after 16 matches. The return of 13 wins, 0 draws, and 3 defeats, together with goals at 28:11, reflects very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking edge comes through Leo Ceara (10 goals), Yuma Suzuki (6 goals), A. Cavric (2 goals), with creative support from Yuma Suzuki (4 assists), G. Shibasaki (3 assists), Leo Ceara (2 assists), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, their record of 5 wins, 0 draws, and 3 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Their overall playing style can be described as balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, JEF United Chiba won 0 times, Kashima won 3 times, while 0 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 1:5 from JEF United Chiba's perspective. 1 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: JEF United Chiba 4-4-2 / Kashima 4-4-2
H2H summary: JEF United Chiba wins 0, draws 0, Kashima wins 3
Stats
JEF United Chiba JEF United Chiba
Kashima Kashima
Shots on Goal
4
Shots on Goal
5
Shots off Goal
4
Shots off Goal
6
Blocked Shots
2
Blocked Shots
2
9 Corner Kicks 0
14 Fouls 11
2 Offsides 0
39% Ball Possession 61%
10 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Goal 5
4 Shots off Goal 6
2 Blocked Shots 2
6 Shots insidebox 10
4 Shots outsidebox 3
3 Goalkeeper Saves 4
311 Total passes 503
239 Passes accurate 422
0.62 expected_goals 2.14
🟨 3 Yellow Cards 0 🟨
🟥 1 Red Cards 0 🟥

Lineups

JEF United Chiba
Formation
Kashima
J. Suarez
J. Suarez
I. Takahashi
I. Takahashi
R. Kuboniwa
R. Kuboniwa
T. Kawano
T. Kawano
M. Hidaka
M. Hidaka
Z. Issaka
Z. Issaka
M. Shinada
M. Shinada
T. Mae
T. Mae
T. Tsukui
T. Tsukui
M. Himeno
M. Himeno
Carlinhos Junior
Carlinhos Junior
T. Hayakawa
T. Hayakawa
K. Nono
K. Nono
N. Ueda
N. Ueda
Kim Tae-Hyeon
Kim Tae-Hyeon
K. Anzai
K. Anzai
G. Shibasaki
G. Shibasaki
K. Misao
K. Misao
Y. Suzuki
🎯
Y. Suzuki
R. Araki
R. Araki
A. Cavric
A. Cavric
Leo Ceara
Leo Ceara
JEF United Chiba 4-4-2
Starting XI
19
J. Suarez
G
2
I. Takahashi
D
3
R. Kuboniwa
D
28
T. Kawano
D
67
M. Hidaka
D
42
Z. Issaka
↓ 71' 🟨 53'
M
44
M. Shinada
↓ 46'
M
15
T. Mae
M
8
T. Tsukui
↓ 85'
M
37
M. Himeno
↓ 71'
F
10
Carlinhos Junior
🟨 45+3' 🟨 61' 🟥 61'
F
Substitutes
23
R. Suzuki
G
41
T. Yasui
↑ 46'
M
7
K. Tanaka
↑ 71'
F
33
Y. Igari
M
11
K. Yonekura
D
4
T. Taguchi
M
9
H. Goya
↑ 71'
F
6
Eduardo
M
18
N. Sugiyama
↑ 85'
M
Kashima 4-2-3-1
Starting XI
1
T. Hayakawa
G
22
K. Nono
D
55
N. Ueda
D
3
Kim Tae-Hyeon
D
2
K. Anzai
↓ 76'
D
10
G. Shibasaki
↓ 63'
M
6
K. Misao
M
40
Y. Suzuki
🎯 43'
M
71
R. Araki
⚽ 43' ↓ 76'
M
77
A. Cavric
↓ 62'
M
9
Leo Ceara
↓ 87'
F
Substitutes
29
Y. Kajikawa
G
13
K. Chinen
M
14
Y. Higuchi
↑ 63'
M
20
Y. Funabashi
M
19
S. Morooka
⚽ 88' ↑ 76'
F
23
K. Tsukui
D
25
R. Koike
↑ 76'
D
27
Y. Matsumura
↑ 62'
M
24
H. Hayashu
↑ 87'
M
Last matches: JEF United Chiba
06.06.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Avispa Fukuoka
1
2
L
30.05.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Avispa Fukuoka
2
2
D
23.05.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Kashiwa Reysol
2
4
L
10.05.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia
0
2
L
06.05.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
FC Tokyo
3
0
W
02.05.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Urawa
0
2
L
29.04.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
3
L
25.04.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Kawasaki Frontale
1
2
L
18.04.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy
0
1
L
11.04.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
04.04.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy
3
2
W
22.03.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Kashima
1
2
L
18.03.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
FC Tokyo
1
2
L
14.03.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Yokohama F. Marinos
0
2
L
07.03.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Kashiwa Reysol
2
1
W
27.02.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia
1
2
L
22.02.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
15.02.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Kawasaki Frontale
0
0
D
07.02.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Urawa
0
2
L
31.01.26
Fri
JEF United Chiba
Kashiwa Reysol
1
2
L
Last matches: Kashima
06.06.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
2
0
W
30.05.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
0
5
L
23.05.26
J1
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
0
W
10.05.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
1
D
06.05.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
3
0
W
03.05.26
J1
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
1
2
L
24.04.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
18.04.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
1
0
W
12.04.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
22.03.26
J1
Kashima
JEF United Chiba
2
1
W
18.03.26
J1
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
14.03.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
1
0
W
07.03.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
2
0
W
28.02.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
3
2
W
21.02.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
2
0
W
14.02.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
0
W
07.02.26
J1
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Kashima
Avispa Fukuoka
3
3
D
H2H: JEF United Chiba vs Kashima
17.05.26
H2H
JEF United Chiba
Kashima
0
2
L
22.03.26
H2H
Kashima
JEF United Chiba
2
1
L
23.12.12
H2H
JEF United Chiba
Kashima
0
1
L
Last matches: JEF United Chiba
06.06.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Avispa Fukuoka
1
2
L
10.05.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Machida Zelvia
0
2
L
29.04.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Yokohama F. Marinos
2
3
L
11.04.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
04.04.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Tokyo Verdy
3
2
W
18.03.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
FC Tokyo
1
2
L
07.03.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Kashiwa Reysol
2
1
W
15.02.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Kawasaki Frontale
0
0
D
07.02.26
J1
JEF United Chiba
Urawa
0
2
L
H2H at home: JEF United Chiba
17.05.26
H2H
JEF United Chiba
Kashima
0
2
L
23.12.12
H2H
JEF United Chiba
Kashima
0
1
L
Last matches: Kashima
30.05.26
J1
Kashima
Vissel Kobe
0
5
L
10.05.26
J1
Kashima
Yokohama F. Marinos
1
1
D
29.04.26
J1
Kashima
Tokyo Verdy
1
2
L
24.04.26
J1
Kashima
Kashiwa Reysol
1
0
W
12.04.26
J1
Kashima
Kawasaki Frontale
2
0
W
04.04.26
J1
Kashima
Mito Hollyhock
1
1
D
18.03.26
J1
Kashima
Machida Zelvia
3
0
W
28.02.26
J1
Kashima
Urawa
3
2
W
07.02.26
J1
Kashima
FC Tokyo
1
1
D
24.01.26
Fri
Kashima
Avispa Fukuoka
3
3
D
H2H away: Kashima
17.05.26
H2H
JEF United Chiba
Kashima
0
2
W
23.12.12
H2H
JEF United Chiba
Kashima
0
1
W

Standings

East
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 18 15 0 3 31:11 20 45
?
2 18 13 0 5 32:18 14 37
?
3 18 13 0 5 28:22 6 37
?
4 18 10 0 8 26:28 -2 28
?
5 18 10 0 8 22:26 -4 28
?
6 18 7 0 11 25:22 3 25
?
7 18 6 0 12 28:31 -3 20
?
8 18 7 0 11 22:24 -2 20
?
9 18 6 0 12 23:39 -16 18
?
10 18 3 0 15 18:34 -16 12
?
Promotion - J1 League (Play Offs)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 3rd place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 5th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 7th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 9th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 11th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 13th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 15th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 17th place)
Promotion - J1 League (Placement Play Offs: 19th place)