COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
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Estadio Jaraguay

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 71.9%
Odds -
BTTS
No
Probability 61.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
71.9%
-
BTTS No
61.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
70.5%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 3-0
-
-
Probability Distribution
Jaguares Win 71.9%
Draw 19.3%
Chico Win 8.8%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jaguares1.33
Chico1.12
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jaguares Jaguares
WWDLW
21 GF / 40 GA
Chico Chico
WLDWL
15 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
0.91
Average Goals Scored
0.71
1.74
Average Goals Conceded
1.95
11
BTTS Yes
4
11
Over 2.5
10
3.35
Shots on Goal
3

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jaguares Jaguares 23 matches
Chico Chico 21 matches
Jaguares Statistic Chico
5 Wins 5
4 Draws 2
14 Losses 14
21 Goals For 15
40 Goals Against 41
0.91 Avg Goals Scored 0.71
1.74 Avg Goals Conceded 1.95
11 BTTS Yes 4
18 Over 1.5 15
11 Over 2.5 10
6 Over 3.5 5
4 Clean Sheets 4
8 Failed To Score 13
3.35 Shots On Goal 3
10.74 Total Shots 9.62
3.83 Corners 3.43
43.3% Ball Possession 45.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Chico. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Jaguares expected to line up in 4-2-3-1 and Chico in 4-5-1, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Chico having the stronger overall control. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Jaguares Analysis

Jaguares sit 16 with 18 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats with a 20:33 goal balance points toward poor form over their recent run. Going forward they depend heavily on Darwin Lopez (1 goals), with creative support from Carlos Cantillo (1 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Chico Analysis

With 17 points from 19 games and a place of 18, Chico still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. Across the season they have posted 5 wins, 2 draws, and 12 defeats, and the 15:32 goal record continues to suggest poor form with results showing a clear downward trend. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 1 draws, and 9 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Jaguares won 4 times, Chico won 5 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 7:11 from Jaguares's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 2 matches, with an average of 1.64 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: No
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (91.2%)
Predicted formations: Jaguares 4-2-3-1 / Chico 4-5-1
H2H summary: Jaguares wins 4, draws 2, Chico wins 5
Last matches: Jaguares
09.08.26
Pri
Jaguares
Once Caldas
1
1
D
05.08.26
Pri
Jaguares
Internacional de Bogota
0
1
L
02.08.26
Pri
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
3
L
25.07.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Cali
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Jaguares
Cucuta
2
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Bucaramanga
2
2
D
17.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Pasto
2
3
L
07.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
1
2
L
02.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Millonarios
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportes Tolima
1
3
L
23.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
19.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Alianza Valledupar
0
1
L
15.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
09.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Llaneros
0
2
L
05.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Fortaleza FC
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Junior
0
2
L
23.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
America de Cali
0
3
L
17.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Santa Fe
3
1
W
12.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Chico
0
5
L
09.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
Last matches: Chico
08.08.26
Pri
Chico
Santa Fe
0
2
L
02.08.26
Pri
Chico
America de Cali
0
7
L
02.05.26
Pri
Chico
Llaneros
3
0
W
27.04.26
Pri
Chico
Internacional de Bogota
0
4
L
22.04.26
Pri
Chico
Independiente Medellin
0
2
L
17.04.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
12.04.26
Pri
Chico
Bucaramanga
0
5
L
02.04.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
28.03.26
Pri
Chico
Cucuta
0
1
L
23.03.26
Pri
Chico
Deportes Tolima
1
1
D
18.03.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pasto
0
2
L
14.03.26
Pri
Chico
Millonarios
2
1
W
28.02.26
Pri
Chico
Once Caldas
0
3
L
22.02.26
Pri
Chico
Águilas Doradas
0
1
L
16.02.26
Pri
Chico
Fortaleza FC
1
2
L
12.02.26
Pri
Chico
Jaguares
5
0
W
08.02.26
Pri
Chico
Junior
0
3
L
31.01.26
Pri
Chico
Santa Fe
0
1
L
28.01.26
Pri
Chico
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
25.01.26
Pri
Chico
America de Cali
0
1
L
H2H: Jaguares vs Chico
12.02.26
H2H
Chico
Jaguares
5
0
L
15.10.24
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
1
0
W
31.03.24
H2H
Chico
Jaguares
1
0
L
25.07.23
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
2
1
W
31.01.23
H2H
Chico
Jaguares
1
0
L
18.04.21
H2H
Chico
Jaguares
0
0
D
08.10.20
H2H
Chico
Jaguares
1
0
L
18.10.18
H2H
Chico
Jaguares
1
0
L
14.04.18
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
2
0
W
19.07.16
H2H
Chico
Jaguares
0
1
W
17.02.16
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
1
1
D
Last matches: Jaguares
09.08.26
Pri
Jaguares
Once Caldas
1
1
D
02.08.26
Pri
Jaguares
Atletico Nacional
0
3
L
02.05.26
Pri
Jaguares
Cucuta
2
0
W
17.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Pasto
2
3
L
02.04.26
Pri
Jaguares
Millonarios
1
0
W
23.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Águilas Doradas
1
1
D
15.03.26
Pri
Jaguares
Independiente Medellin
1
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Junior
0
2
L
17.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Santa Fe
3
1
W
09.02.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Pereira
1
0
W
29.01.26
Pri
Jaguares
Internacional de Bogota
2
3
L
18.01.26
Pri
Jaguares
Deportivo Cali
1
0
W
23.11.25
Pri
Jaguares
Huila
2
2
D
15.11.25
Pri
Jaguares
Cucuta
1
2
L
07.11.25
Pri
Jaguares
Internacional Palmira
1
0
W
27.10.25
Pri
Jaguares
Popayan
1
1
D
11.10.25
Pri
Jaguares
Leones FC
4
0
W
29.09.25
Pri
Jaguares
Real Cartagena
2
1
W
14.09.25
Pri
Jaguares
Bogota FC
2
0
W
31.08.25
Pri
Jaguares
Quindio
2
0
W
H2H at home: Jaguares
15.10.24
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
1
0
W
25.07.23
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
2
1
W
14.04.18
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
2
0
W
17.02.16
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
1
1
D
Last matches: Chico
08.08.26
Pri
Chico
Santa Fe
0
2
L
02.08.26
Pri
Chico
America de Cali
0
7
L
27.04.26
Pri
Chico
Internacional de Bogota
0
4
L
22.04.26
Pri
Chico
Independiente Medellin
0
2
L
12.04.26
Pri
Chico
Bucaramanga
0
5
L
28.03.26
Pri
Chico
Cucuta
0
1
L
18.03.26
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pasto
0
2
L
28.02.26
Pri
Chico
Once Caldas
0
3
L
16.02.26
Pri
Chico
Fortaleza FC
1
2
L
08.02.26
Pri
Chico
Junior
0
3
L
28.01.26
Pri
Chico
Alianza Valledupar
1
1
D
17.01.26
Pri
Chico
Atletico Nacional
0
4
L
09.11.25
Pri
Chico
Alianza Valledupar
0
2
L
25.10.25
Pri
Chico
Envigado
2
0
W
14.10.25
Pri
Chico
Fortaleza FC
0
1
L
26.09.25
Pri
Chico
Once Caldas
2
5
L
15.09.25
Pri
Chico
Deportes Tolima
0
4
L
05.09.25
Pri
Chico
Deportivo Pasto
0
2
L
16.08.25
Pri
Chico
Águilas Doradas
0
2
L
02.08.25
Pri
Chico
Junior
0
2
L
H2H away: Chico
15.10.24
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
1
0
L
25.07.23
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
2
1
L
14.04.18
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
2
0
L
17.02.16
H2H
Jaguares
Chico
1
1
D

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
L W W L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
L L L L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W W W W L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
D L D W D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
W L W W L
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D L L D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
L W L L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W L W D W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W W L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D W W W D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W L
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
D W D W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
W L D D W
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D L L L W
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
L L D D D
18
Chico Away
19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L W L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L D L L D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L L W L
Post season qualification