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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
27.09.2026 21:00
Estadio Jaraguay
Referee: Wilmar Roldan, Colombia
Jaguares
Match Timeline
Alianza Valledupar
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
15'
A. Renteria · Assist: J. Beltran
Jaguares
🟨
31'
Johan Beltrán
Jaguares
🟨
36'
Luis Jiménez
Jaguares
⚽
39'
J. Castillo · Assist: J. Lasso
Alianza Valledupar
🟨
47'
Santiago Cubides
Jaguares
🟨
49'
Kevin Moreno
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
56'
S. Cubides ↔ D. Lopez
Jaguares
🔄
63'
J. Beltran ↔ Jopito
Jaguares
🔄
63'
J. Mejia ↔ D. Rodriguez Urango
Jaguares
🔄
64'
K. Moreno ↔ S. Quinones
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
65'
E. W. Meza Mercado ↔ W. Fernandez
Alianza Valledupar
⚽
72'
J. Lasso · Assist: W. Fernandez
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
80'
L. Jimenez ↔ A. Alfonso
Jaguares
🔄
80'
J. Malagon ↔ W. De La Rosa
Jaguares
🔄
80'
D. Quinones ↔ C. Villegas
Alianza Valledupar
🔄
80'
J. Munoz ↔ L. Palacios
Alianza Valledupar
🟨
81'
Sebastián Quiñones
Alianza Valledupar
🟨
90+7'
Andrés Felipe Alfonso Ciprian
Jaguares
🔄
90+3'
C. Vergara ↔ J. E. Perez Balcazar
Alianza Valledupar

Jaguares vs Alianza Valledupar Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home or Draw
Probability 73.9%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 82.5%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 77.2%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home or Draw
73.9%
- ▥
BTTS Yes
82.5%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
77.2%
- ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
71.3%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Jaguares Win 44.2%
Draw 29.7%
Alianza Valledupar Win 26.1%
Expected Goals (xG)
Jaguares1.28
Alianza Valledupar1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Jaguares Jaguares
WWDLW
30 GF / 49 GA
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar
WLDWL
23 GF / 48 GA
Key Stats
1.07
Average Goals Scored
0.77
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.6
15
BTTS Yes
15
15
Over 2.5
12
3.5
Shots on Goal
2.76

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Jaguares Jaguares 28 matches
Alianza Valledupar Alianza Valledupar 30 matches
Jaguares Statistic Alianza Valledupar
6 Wins 5
7 Draws 11
15 Losses 14
30 Goals For 23
49 Goals Against 48
1.07 Avg Goals Scored 0.77
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.6
15 BTTS Yes 15
22 Over 1.5 20
15 Over 2.5 12
9 Over 3.5 6
5 Clean Sheets 6
8 Failed To Score 12
3.5 Shots On Goal 2.76
10.71 Total Shots 10.83
3.86 Corners 4.1
43.9% Ball Possession 44.6%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This contest looks finely balanced, with two sides with a fairly similar football identity suggesting a close tactical battle. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Alianza Valledupar. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Alianza Valledupar arrive with more visible recent inconsistency, which may leave them vulnerable if the match starts badly. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Jaguares Analysis

With 18 points from 19 games and a place of 16, Jaguares still have clear room for improvement in overall consistency. The overall return of 5 wins, 3 draws, and 11 defeats with a 20:33 goal balance points toward poor form and have been stuck in a sequence of draws. Going forward they depend heavily on A. Rentería (8 goals), D. López (5 goals), C. Álvarez (3 goals), with creative support from A. Rentería (3 assists), C. Álvarez (3 assists), D. Rodríguez (3 assists), while defensively they have looked fairly stable. At home, the split record of 5 wins, 1 draws, and 4 losses points to a fairly balanced split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Their broader football approach still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

Alianza Valledupar Analysis

Alianza Valledupar approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 17 with 17 points from 19 matches. Their record of 3 wins, 8 draws, and 8 losses, together with goals at 13:27, reflects mixed form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through F. Pardo (4 goals), J. Muñoz (3 goals), C. Vergara (3 goals), with creative support from F. Pardo (3 assists), J. Lasso (3 assists), P. Franco (1 assists), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 1 wins, 3 draws, and 6 losses, which indicates a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. Stylistically, they tend to play with a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Jaguares won 3 times, Alianza Valledupar won 6 times, while 6 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 12:18 from Jaguares's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 7 matches, with an average of 2 goals per game.

1X2: Home or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (73.9%)
Predicted formations: Jaguares 4-2-3-1 / Alianza Valledupar 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Jaguares wins 3, draws 6, Alianza Valledupar wins 6

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
D W D L W
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D L L W W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W W D L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L D D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D D W W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L D L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D W L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W W W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
W L L L D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L D W L L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D L L D D
Post season qualification