ARGENTINA PRIMERA B METROPOLITANA
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Estadio Carlos Sacaan

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds 2.15
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 2.20
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds 2.50
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.7%
2.15
BTTS Yes
67.1%
2.20
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
2.50
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
1.66
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
5.00
Correct Score 1-2
-
10.00
Probability Distribution
Ituzaingó Win 16.3%
Draw 28%
Deportivo Merlo Win 55.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ituzaingó0.97
Deportivo Merlo1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ituzaingó Ituzaingó
WWDLW
19 GF / 51 GA
Deportivo Merlo Deportivo Merlo
WLDWL
33 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
0.61
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
14
BTTS Yes
17
13
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ituzaingó Ituzaingó 31 matches
Deportivo Merlo Deportivo Merlo 30 matches
Ituzaingó Statistic Deportivo Merlo
1 Wins 9
10 Draws 11
20 Losses 10
19 Goals For 33
51 Goals Against 45
0.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
14 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 23
13 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 8
16 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Deportivo Merlo having the stronger overall control. Deportivo Merlo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 37 points while Ituzaingó sit 22 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Deportivo Merlo. Ituzaingó have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ituzaingó Analysis

Ituzaingó approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 22 with 12 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 9 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 18:46 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Merlo Analysis

So far, Deportivo Merlo have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 37 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 10 draws, and 10 losses, while the 33:45 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 10 head-to-head meetings, Ituzaingó won 2 times, Deportivo Merlo won 5 times, while 3 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:9 from Ituzaingó's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (83.7%)
H2H summary: Ituzaingó wins 2, draws 3, Deportivo Merlo wins 5
Last matches: Ituzaingó
15.08.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Argentino de Merlo
1
1
D
07.08.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Camioneros
0
1
L
01.08.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Talleres Remedios
0
0
D
25.07.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Sportivo Italiano
0
0
D
18.07.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Laferrere
0
2
L
14.07.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
San Martín Burzaco
1
2
L
10.07.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Brown DE Adrogue
0
0
D
04.07.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Villa San Carlos
1
3
L
27.06.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Armenio
1
2
L
19.06.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Liniers
1
1
D
13.06.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Flandria
2
3
L
05.06.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Real Pilar
2
0
W
01.06.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Argentino Quilmes
0
2
L
26.05.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Laferrere
0
2
L
22.05.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
UAI Urquiza
1
1
D
16.05.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Defensores Unidos
1
2
L
09.05.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Villa Dalmine
0
2
L
04.05.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Comunicaciones
2
3
L
25.04.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Excursionistas
1
3
L
19.04.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Dock Sud
0
3
L
Last matches: Deportivo Merlo
15.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Camioneros
0
0
D
08.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
0
4
L
02.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
San Martín Burzaco
1
1
D
25.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa San Carlos
1
2
L
18.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Liniers
1
1
D
14.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Real Pilar
3
2
W
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
UAI Urquiza
0
0
D
04.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa Dalmine
1
2
L
27.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Excursionistas
0
5
L
21.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Arsenal Sarandi
2
4
L
14.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Argentino de Merlo
2
2
D
05.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Talleres Remedios
0
2
L
02.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Laferrere
2
1
W
26.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Liniers
0
0
D
22.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Brown DE Adrogue
1
0
W
16.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Armenio
3
2
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Flandria
0
2
L
02.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Argentino Quilmes
1
0
W
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Defensores Unidos
1
1
D
21.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Comunicaciones
2
0
W
H2H: Ituzaingó vs Deportivo Merlo
11.04.26
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
3
2
L
01.07.23
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
1
L
05.03.23
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
0
0
D
26.07.22
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
1
L
26.03.22
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
0
1
W
22.05.20
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
0
D
09.12.19
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
0
0
D
27.04.19
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
0
1
W
18.11.18
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
0
D
13.04.18
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
1
2
L
22.11.17
H2H
Deportivo Merlo
Ituzaingó
2
1
L
Last matches: Ituzaingó
07.08.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Camioneros
0
1
L
25.07.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Sportivo Italiano
0
0
D
14.07.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
San Martín Burzaco
1
2
L
04.07.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Villa San Carlos
1
3
L
19.06.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Liniers
1
1
D
05.06.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Real Pilar
2
0
W
26.05.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Laferrere
0
2
L
22.05.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
UAI Urquiza
1
1
D
09.05.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Villa Dalmine
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Excursionistas
1
3
L
14.04.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Arsenal Sarandi
0
0
D
03.04.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Argentino de Merlo
0
1
L
20.03.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Talleres Remedios
0
0
D
27.02.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Brown DE Adrogue
1
1
D
13.02.26
Pri
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Armenio
0
1
L
02.10.23
Pri
Ituzaingó
Dock Sud
1
0
W
16.09.23
Pri
Ituzaingó
Acassuso
0
2
L
02.09.23
Pri
Ituzaingó
Fénix
1
0
W
20.08.23
Pri
Ituzaingó
San Miguel
0
2
L
30.07.23
Pri
Ituzaingó
Colegiales
0
0
D
H2H at home: Ituzaingó
01.07.23
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
1
L
26.07.22
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
1
L
22.05.20
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
0
D
18.11.18
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
0
D
13.04.18
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
1
2
L
Last matches: Deportivo Merlo
15.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Deportivo Camioneros
0
0
D
02.08.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
San Martín Burzaco
1
1
D
18.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Liniers
1
1
D
10.07.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
UAI Urquiza
0
0
D
27.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Excursionistas
0
5
L
21.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Arsenal Sarandi
2
4
L
05.06.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Talleres Remedios
0
2
L
22.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Brown DE Adrogue
1
0
W
09.05.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Flandria
0
2
L
25.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Defensores Unidos
1
1
D
16.04.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Dock Sud
1
1
D
29.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
1
2
L
14.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa San Carlos
1
1
D
04.03.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Real Pilar
3
1
W
22.02.26
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Villa Dalmine
1
0
W
16.11.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
San Martín Burzaco
3
1
W
18.10.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Dock Sud
1
1
D
04.10.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Real Pilar
0
0
D
20.09.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Sportivo Italiano
0
1
L
06.09.25
Pri
Deportivo Merlo
Excursionistas
1
3
L
H2H away: Deportivo Merlo
01.07.23
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
1
W
26.07.22
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
1
W
22.05.20
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
0
D
18.11.18
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
0
0
D
13.04.18
H2H
Ituzaingó
Deportivo Merlo
1
2
W
Showing odds from: 1xBet
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.15
Draw 2.90
Home 3.25
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.88
Draw 1.91
Home 4.00
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.20
Home 3.60
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.10
Over 1.5 1.50
Over 2.5 2.50
Over 3.5 4.50
Over 4.5 8.50
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 6.50
Under 1.5 2.50
Under 2.5 1.50
Under 3.5 1.17
Under 4.5 1.05
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.20
Draw 3.08
Home 3.14
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.92
Draw 1.94
Home 4.06
SECOND HALF WINNER
Away 2.62
Draw 2.23
Home 3.64
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 0.5 1.03
Over 0.75 1.05
Over 1.0 1.07
Over 1.25 1.23
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 1.75 1.49
Over 2.0 1.67
Over 2.25 1.99
Over 2.5 2.27
Over 2.75 2.62
Over 3.0 3.42
Over 3.25 3.84
Over 3.5 4.20
Over 3.75 5.39
Over 4.0 7.80
Over 4.25 8.15
Over 4.5 8.60
Over 5.5 15.00
Over 6.5 21.00
Under 0.5 7.30
Under 0.75 6.60
Under 1.0 5.90
Under 1.25 3.42
Under 1.5 2.62
Under 1.75 2.30
Under 2.0 1.98
Under 2.25 1.73
Under 2.5 1.56
Under 2.75 1.38
Under 3.0 1.23
Under 3.25 1.18
Under 3.5 1.15
Under 3.75 1.09
Under 4.0 1.02
Under 4.25 1.02
Under 4.5 1.01
Under 5.5 1.01
Under 6.5 1.00
Main markets
MATCH WINNER
Away 2.25
Draw 2.95
Home 3.00
FIRST HALF WINNER
Away 2.90
Draw 2.02
Home 3.55
GOALS OVER/UNDER
Over 1.5 1.38
Over 2.5 2.20
Under 1.5 2.60
Under 2.5 1.54

Standings

Prim B Metro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 30 16 8 6 45:23 22 56
W L W D D
2 30 16 8 6 33:15 18 56
W L D W W
3 30 15 10 5 35:18 17 55
D W D W W
4 30 15 10 5 33:16 17 55
W L W D D
5 30 14 11 5 39:22 17 53
L D D D W
6 31 14 10 7 36:23 13 52
L W W D D
7 30 12 9 9 33:31 2 45
D D W W L
8 30 12 8 10 33:33 0 44
W W L D D
9 31 11 10 10 32:29 3 43
W D L D L
10 30 11 9 10 36:39 -3 42
L D W L W
11 30 10 9 11 30:30 0 39
D W L L D
12 30 9 11 10 33:45 -12 38
D L D L D
13 30 8 13 9 28:30 -2 37
D L D L L
14 30 8 13 9 26:28 -2 37
W D D D D
15 30 8 12 10 32:31 1 36
L W D D W
16 30 7 11 12 29:35 -6 32
W W D W L
17 30 7 11 12 21:30 -9 32
L W D D D
18 30 7 10 13 19:31 -12 31
L W D W L
19 30 7 8 15 23:36 -13 29
D D L D L
20 30 3 18 9 14:25 -11 27
L D D D L
21 30 5 11 14 24:36 -12 26
L L L D D
22 30 1 10 19 19:47 -28 13
D L D D L
Promotion - Primera Nacional
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C (Apertura)