22.08.2026 18:00
Estadio Carlos Sacaan
Ituzaingó
Match Timeline
Deportivo Merlo
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
6'
L. Alfieri
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
62'
S. Gras ↔ J. Maza
Ituzaingó
🔄
68'
D. Maguicha ↔ R. Hernandez
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
68'
E. Quinteros ↔ F. Aguerre
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
72'
L. Mena ↔ J. Fanti
Ituzaingó
🔄
72'
A. Miranda ↔ B. Mariani
Ituzaingó
🔄
75'
C. Gugenheim ↔ M. Linas
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
82'
J. Salvadores ↔ F. Luppino
Ituzaingó
🔄
85'
L. Alfieri ↔ J. Busto
Deportivo Merlo
🔄
85'
F. Benitez ↔ A. M. Paez
Deportivo Merlo
🟨
90+1'
F. Aguerre
Deportivo Merlo

Ituzaingó vs Deportivo Merlo Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 55.7%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 55.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
55.7%
-
BTTS Yes
67.1%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
55.6%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 1-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Ituzaingó Win 16.3%
Draw 28%
Deportivo Merlo Win 55.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ituzaingó0.97
Deportivo Merlo1.32
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ituzaingó Ituzaingó
WWDLW
19 GF / 51 GA
Deportivo Merlo Deportivo Merlo
WLDWL
33 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
0.61
Average Goals Scored
1.1
1.65
Average Goals Conceded
1.5
14
BTTS Yes
17
13
Over 2.5
14
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ituzaingó Ituzaingó 31 matches
Deportivo Merlo Deportivo Merlo 30 matches
Ituzaingó Statistic Deportivo Merlo
1 Wins 9
10 Draws 11
20 Losses 10
19 Goals For 33
51 Goals Against 45
0.61 Avg Goals Scored 1.1
1.65 Avg Goals Conceded 1.5
14 BTTS Yes 17
22 Over 1.5 23
13 Over 2.5 14
7 Over 3.5 9
7 Clean Sheets 8
16 Failed To Score 9
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From the opening view, this looks like a meeting between teams arriving with different levels of stability, reinforced by two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Deportivo Merlo having the stronger overall control. Deportivo Merlo carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 12 with 37 points while Ituzaingó sit 22 on 12, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output. Taken together, the balance of indicators still supports Away Win, with the defensive lean favoring Deportivo Merlo. Ituzaingó have shown more instability in their recent run, so confidence and game management may become important factors. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Ituzaingó Analysis

Ituzaingó approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 22 with 12 points from 29 matches. Across the season they have posted 1 wins, 9 draws, and 19 defeats, and the 18:46 goal record continues to suggest poor form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on their main attacking players, while at the back they have been quite vulnerable. At home, they have managed 1 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Deportivo Merlo Analysis

So far, Deportivo Merlo have built a campaign that leaves them 12 in the table on 37 points from 29 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 9 wins, 10 draws, and 10 losses, while the 33:45 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on their main attacking players, and defensively they have been quite vulnerable. Away from home, the record of 3 wins, 6 draws, and 5 losses points toward a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Ituzaingó won 2 times, Deportivo Merlo won 5 times, while 4 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:9 from Ituzaingó's perspective. 3 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 3 matches, with an average of 1.36 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: X2 (83.7%)
H2H summary: Ituzaingó wins 2, draws 4, Deportivo Merlo wins 5

Standings

Prim B Metro
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 36 21 8 7 56:29 27 71
W W W L W
2 36 18 12 6 48:24 24 66
L W W W W
3 36 18 10 8 37:19 18 64
D L W W D
4 36 17 12 7 42:24 18 63
L L W D W
5 36 17 12 7 38:21 17 63
W L L D D
6 36 16 11 9 41:27 14 59
D L W W L
7 36 16 10 10 40:35 5 58
W W L D W
8 36 15 9 12 38:38 0 54
W W D W L
9 36 14 11 11 38:33 5 53
W D W W L
10 36 12 12 12 43:47 -4 48
L D D D W
11 36 11 14 11 35:37 -2 47
W W D L W
12 36 10 14 12 38:38 0 44
D L L W W
13 36 11 11 14 32:36 -4 44
W L L D L
14 36 10 13 13 36:50 -14 43
W L D L L
15 36 9 14 13 35:39 -4 41
D D D L W
16 36 9 14 13 29:36 -7 41
D W L L L
17 36 9 13 14 30:37 -7 40
L W D D W
18 36 10 8 18 32:45 -13 38
L W L W L
19 36 8 13 15 31:38 -7 37
L W D D W
20 36 7 14 15 21:37 -16 35
D L D D L
21 36 4 19 13 18:33 -15 31
L L W L L
22 36 1 12 23 23:58 -35 15
L D L L L
Promotion - Primera Nacional
Promotion - Primera B (Promotion - Play Offs)
Relegation - Primera C (Apertura)