🇺🇸 USA MAJOR LEAGUE SOCCER
05.09.2026 23:30
Nu Stadium
Referee: J. Freemon
Inter Miami
Match Timeline
Atlanta United FC
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
28'
Maximiliano Falcón
Inter Miami
32'
Casemiro · Assist: L. Messi
Inter Miami
35'
M. Almiron
Atlanta United FC
🟨
39'
Cooper Sanchez
Atlanta United FC
🟨
42'
Germán Berterame
Inter Miami
45'
L. Suarez · Assist: T. Segovia
Inter Miami
🔄
46'
M. Falcon ↔ F. Mura
Inter Miami
🟨
47'
Paulo Díaz
Atlanta United FC
🔄
56'
W. Reilly ↔ S. Alzate
Atlanta United FC
🔄
56'
C. Sanchez ↔ M. Amaro
Atlanta United FC
🟨
58'
Fricio Caicedo
Inter Miami
🟨
62'
Dayne St. Clair
Inter Miami
🔄
66'
T. Jacob ↔ M. Edwards
Atlanta United FC
🔄
69'
T. Segovia ↔ A. Shaw
Inter Miami
VAR
71'
Miguel Almirón
Atlanta United FC
🟨
72'
Casemiro
Inter Miami
73'
Miguel Almirón
Atlanta United FC
🟨
75'
Rodrigo De Paul
Inter Miami
🔄
84'
L. Suarez ↔ M. Silvetti
Inter Miami
🔄
85'
T. Muyumba ↔ F. Picault
Atlanta United FC
87'
B. Embolo
Atlanta United FC
🟨
90+5'
Matthew Edwards
Atlanta United FC
🔄
90+6'
↔ D. Pinter
Inter Miami

Inter Miami vs Atlanta United FC Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 74.9%
Odds 1.31
BTTS
Yes
Probability 88%
Odds 1.44
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 87%
Odds 1.23
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
74.9%
1.31
BTTS Yes
88%
1.44
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
87%
1.23
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
92%
1.49
HT / FT Home / Home
-
1.80
Correct Score 2-1
-
7.50
Probability Distribution
Inter Miami Win 74.9%
Draw 4.4%
Atlanta United FC Win 20.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Inter Miami1.98
Atlanta United FC1.46
Recent Form (Last 5)
Inter Miami Inter Miami
WWDLW
63 GF / 49 GA
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC
WLDWL
33 GF / 41 GA
Key Stats
2.25
Average Goals Scored
1.27
1.75
Average Goals Conceded
1.58
21
BTTS Yes
16
21
Over 2.5
15
5.88
Shots on Goal
4.05

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Inter Miami Inter Miami 28 matches
Atlanta United FC Atlanta United FC 26 matches
Inter Miami Statistic Atlanta United FC
14 Wins 8
9 Draws 5
5 Losses 13
63 Goals For 33
49 Goals Against 41
2.25 Avg Goals Scored 1.27
1.75 Avg Goals Conceded 1.58
21 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 22
21 Over 2.5 15
15 Over 3.5 9
5 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 9
5.88 Shots On Goal 4.05
14.54 Total Shots 12.59
5.13 Corners 4.82
55.3% Ball Possession 50.9%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Inter Miami's more proactive style and Atlanta United FC's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Inter Miami arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 2 with 39 points compared to Atlanta United FC in 12 on 21, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Atlanta United FC. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely.

Inter Miami Analysis

Inter Miami come into this match from a strong league position, sitting 2 with 39 points from 21 matches. The record of 11 wins, 6 draws, and 4 defeats, together with a 49:40 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Lionel Messi (8 goals), Luis Suárez (8 goals), Germán Berterame (7 goals), with creative support from Lionel Messi (7 assists), Rodrigo De Paul (4 assists), Germán Berterame (3 assists), while at the back they have looked fairly stable. At home, their split return of 3 wins, 4 draws, and 2 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Atlanta United FC Analysis

From their first 21 matches, Atlanta United FC have collected 21 points and now occupy 12 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 6 wins, 3 draws, and 12 losses, while the 25:36 goal ratio supports the view of good form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on Saba Lobzhanidze (2 goals), Ajani Fortune (2 goals), Miguel Almirón (2 goals), with creative support from Aleksey Miranchuk (3 assists), Saba Lobzhanidze (2 assists), Elías Báez (1 assists), and defensively they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have returned 2 wins, 2 draws, and 7 losses, a split that suggests a weak split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Inter Miami won 6 times, Atlanta United FC won 7 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:25 from Inter Miami's perspective. 12 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 11 matches, with an average of 3.4 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (95.6%)
Predicted formations: Inter Miami 4-3-3 / Atlanta United FC 4-3-3
Missing players: Inter Miami 6, Atlanta United FC 5
H2H summary: Inter Miami wins 6, draws 2, Atlanta United FC wins 7

Standings

Eastern Conference
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 26 17 6 3 53:21 32 57
W D L D W
2 26 14 4 8 45:33 12 46
W W W L W
3 25 12 9 4 61:46 15 45
D D D W L
4 26 12 7 7 47:37 10 43
W D W D W
5 25 11 6 8 45:38 7 39
L L D D D
6 26 10 6 10 50:42 8 36
W W W W W
7 26 10 4 12 46:60 -14 34
L W W W D
8 26 9 6 11 34:48 -14 33
W W L D L
9 25 8 9 8 54:61 -7 33
D D L L D
10 26 8 8 10 39:34 5 32
L W L D D
11 25 6 11 8 31:39 -8 29
L D W D L
12 26 6 11 9 39:49 -10 29
L L W D D
13 26 7 5 14 37:42 -5 26
W L L W L
14 26 7 5 14 30:43 -13 26
W D L D L
15 26 5 6 15 31:53 -22 21
L L L L L
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs: 1/16-finals)