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COLOMBIA › PRIMERA A
18.10.2026 01:10
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: Steven Camargo
Independiente Medellin
Match Timeline
Once Caldas
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
17'
Jorge Cardona
Once Caldas
🟨
21'
Andres Colorado
Once Caldas
⚽
35'
Jefry Zapata · Assist: Juan Patiño
Once Caldas
🔄
45'
Hayen Palacios ↔ Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
Independiente Medellin
🔄
45'
Didier Moreno ↔ Diego Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🟨
53'
Luis Escorcia
Independiente Medellin
🟨
57'
Juan Pablo Nieto
Once Caldas
🔄
64'
John Montano ↔ Nivaldo Erazo
Independiente Medellin
🔄
64'
Yony González ↔ Carlos Alberto Lucumi Gonzalez
Independiente Medellin
⚽
65'
Michael Barrios · Assist: Jefry Zapata
Once Caldas
🔄
79'
Jefry Zapata ↔ Dayro Moreno
Once Caldas
🔄
79'
Michael Barrios ↔ Edwin Torres
Once Caldas
🟨
81'
Halam Stiven Loboa Diaz
Independiente Medellin
🟨
82'
Keiner David Klinger Vasquez
Independiente Medellin
🔄
90'
Jader Quinones ↔ Jaime Alvarado
Once Caldas
🔄
90+3'
Felipe Gomez ↔ Helieyker Guzman
Once Caldas

Independiente Medellin vs Once Caldas Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away or Draw
Probability 59.8%
Odds 1.80
BTTS
Yes
Probability 67.1%
Odds 1.73
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.93
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away or Draw
59.8%
1.80 ▥
BTTS Yes
67.1%
1.73 ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.93 ▥
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
92%
1.29 ▥
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
8.00 ▥
Correct Score 1-2
-
13.00 ▥
Probability Distribution
Independiente Medellin Win 40.2%
Draw 18.1%
Once Caldas Win 41.7%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Medellin1.33
Once Caldas1.35
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WWDLW
62 GF / 55 GA
Once Caldas Once Caldas
WLDWL
50 GF / 42 GA
Key Stats
1.44
Average Goals Scored
1.39
1.28
Average Goals Conceded
1.17
29
BTTS Yes
25
26
Over 2.5
15
4.56
Shots on Goal
5.68

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 43 matches
Once Caldas Once Caldas 36 matches
Independiente Medellin Statistic Once Caldas
19 Wins 12
10 Draws 16
14 Losses 8
62 Goals For 50
55 Goals Against 42
1.44 Avg Goals Scored 1.39
1.28 Avg Goals Conceded 1.17
29 BTTS Yes 25
33 Over 1.5 28
26 Over 2.5 15
12 Over 3.5 8
9 Clean Sheets 7
7 Failed To Score 6
4.56 Shots On Goal 5.68
13.59 Total Shots 14.97
4.9 Corners 5.21
49.8% Ball Possession 53.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Once Caldas. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

Independiente Medellin sit 11 with 26 points after 19 league matches. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:24 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through J. Montaño (7 goals), J. Medina (3 goals), Y. González (2 goals), with creative support from J. Montaño (4 assists), F. Fabra (3 assists), Y. González (2 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, a split that suggests a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms, they tend to show balanced attacking football.

Once Caldas Analysis

Placed 5 with 33 points from 19 outings, Once Caldas continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 8 wins, 9 draws, and 2 defeats, together with a 31:22 goal balance, points toward mixed form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through D. Moreno (13 goals), J. Zapata (12 goals), Pipe Gómez (4 goals), with creative support from J. Cuesta (8 assists), A. Roa (4 assists), A. Correa (4 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. Away from home, their split return of 2 wins, 6 draws, and 1 losses fits a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 15 head-to-head meetings, Independiente Medellin won 5 times, Once Caldas won 3 times, while 7 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 26:18 from Independiente Medellin's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 12 matches, with an average of 2.93 goals per game.

1X2: Away or Draw
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (81.9%)
Predicted formations: Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1 / Once Caldas 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente Medellin wins 5, draws 7, Once Caldas wins 3

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W D W D L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
D D L L W
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L W W D
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W W D L
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
W D L L W
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L D D D D
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W W L W W
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
D D D L L
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
D W W W W
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
W L D L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
D D W L L
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
D W W W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L W L
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D D L D
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
L W L L L
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
D L W L W
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L L D W L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
W W W L L
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
D D L L D
Post season qualification