COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
30.08.2026 21:10
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: Jhon Ospina
Independiente Medellin
Match Timeline
Llaneros
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
3'
Yony González
Independiente Medellin
17'
J. Medina · Assist: F. Fabra
Independiente Medellin
21'
J. Montano · Assist: J. Quintero
Independiente Medellin
🟨
27'
Joel Contreras
Llaneros
🔄
28'
D. Quintero ↔ J. Castilla
Llaneros
44'
F. Meza · Assist: J. Ramirez
Llaneros
🟨
50'
Kevin Mantilla
Independiente Medellin
🟨
54'
Kelvin Osorio
Llaneros
🔄
58'
J. Medranda ↔ J. Escobar Salcedo
Llaneros
🔄
58'
Kelvin Osorio ↔ L. Miranda
Llaneros
🟨
61'
Luis Miranda
Llaneros
🔄
63'
L. Escorcia ↔ H. Loboa
Independiente Medellin
🔄
63'
J. Montano ↔ K. Klinger
Independiente Medellin
🔄
63'
J. Medina ↔ C. Lucumi
Independiente Medellin
🟨
64'
Juan Pertuz
Llaneros
🔄
74'
F. Castaneda ↔ B. Chury
Llaneros
🔄
74'
J. Ramirez ↔ Y. Mena
Llaneros
🔄
77'
Yony Gonzalez ↔ J. Mena
Independiente Medellin
🟨
78'
Keiner Klinger
Independiente Medellin
🔄
84'
A. Martegani ↔ D. Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🔄
84'
F. Fabra ↔ N. Erazo
Independiente Medellin
🔄
87'
C. Cortes ↔ N. Ospina
Llaneros
🟨
90+2'
Carlos Lucumi
Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin vs Llaneros Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 72.4%
Odds 1.54
BTTS
Yes
Probability 75%
Odds 1.91
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 58.6%
Odds 1.96
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
72.4%
1.54
BTTS Yes
75%
1.91
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
58.6%
1.96
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
79.6%
1.21
HT / FT Home / Home
-
2.25
Correct Score 2-1
-
8.50
Probability Distribution
Independiente Medellin Win 72.4%
Draw 6.8%
Llaneros Win 20.9%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Medellin1.25
Llaneros1.06
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WWDLW
48 GF / 43 GA
Llaneros Llaneros
WLDWL
24 GF / 26 GA
Key Stats
1.41
Average Goals Scored
0.92
1.26
Average Goals Conceded
1
23
BTTS Yes
12
19
Over 2.5
5
4.28
Shots on Goal
3.6

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 34 matches
Llaneros Llaneros 26 matches
Independiente Medellin Statistic Llaneros
15 Wins 7
8 Draws 12
11 Losses 7
48 Goals For 24
43 Goals Against 26
1.41 Avg Goals Scored 0.92
1.26 Avg Goals Conceded 1
23 BTTS Yes 12
25 Over 1.5 18
19 Over 2.5 5
10 Over 3.5 3
8 Clean Sheets 8
5 Failed To Score 8
4.28 Shots On Goal 3.6
13.13 Total Shots 10.28
4.91 Corners 4.96
48.9% Ball Possession 46.4%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

There is very little separating these two teams on paper, and Independiente Medellin's more proactive style and Llaneros's more cautious structure points toward a competitive game. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Llaneros. There is little separation in the broader season picture, with both sides operating from relatively comparable league positions and points returns. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente Medellin come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

So far, Independiente Medellin have built a campaign that leaves them 11 in the table on 26 points from 19 matches. Across the campaign, they have posted 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 losses, while the 26:24 goal ratio supports the view of very strong form and are on a winning streak. Going forward they rely heavily on John Edwin Montaño (2 goals), Hayen Palacios (1 goals), Jhan Mena (1 goals), with creative support from John Edwin Montaño (1 assists), Hayen Palacios (1 assists), Yony González (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, the record of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses points toward a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Their broader style still suggests balanced attacking football.

Llaneros Analysis

Llaneros approach this match from a more delicate league position, standing 14 with 22 points from 19 matches. Across the season they have posted 4 wins, 10 draws, and 5 defeats, and the 17:20 goal record continues to suggest mixed form over their recent run. Their attacking burden often falls on Neider Ospina (2 goals), Jhon Vásquez (1 goals), Francisco Meza (1 goals), with creative support from Neider Ospina (1 assists), Jhon Vásquez (1 assists), Luis Miranda (1 assists), while at the back they have been very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 3 draws, and 4 losses, a return that supports a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 3 head-to-head meetings, Independiente Medellin won 2 times, Llaneros won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 6:2 from Independiente Medellin's perspective. 2 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 2.67 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (93.2%)
Predicted formations: Independiente Medellin 4-4-2 / Llaneros 4-4-2
H2H summary: Independiente Medellin wins 2, draws 1, Llaneros wins 0

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
W D L D L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
L W D W D
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
W D D L D
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W W L L L
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
L W W D D
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
L D L W W
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification