COLOMBIA PRIMERA A
23.08.2026 01:15
Estadio Atanasio Girardot
Referee: D. Ulloa
Independiente Medellin
Match Timeline
Cucuta
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
🟨
22'
Y. Abonia
Cucuta
25'
J. Peralta · Assist: Neneco
Cucuta
🟨
45+3'
J. Peralta
Cucuta
🔄
46'
J. Mena ↔ F. Fabra
Independiente Medellin
🔄
46'
D. Catano ↔ J. Quintero
Independiente Medellin
🔄
46'
Y. Abonia ↔ S. Tamara
Cucuta
🔄
56'
M. B. Carabali Lopez ↔ J. Ceballos
Cucuta
🔄
66'
V. Mejia ↔ K. Tamayo
Cucuta
🔄
75'
L. Berdugo ↔ G. Torres
Cucuta
🔄
75'
J. Peralta ↔ J. Agudelo
Cucuta
🔄
81'
Yony Gonzalez ↔ D. Moreno
Independiente Medellin
🔄
81'
J. Medina ↔ C. Lucumi
Independiente Medellin
VAR
85'
C. Lucumi
Independiente Medellin

Independiente Medellin vs Cucuta Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 88%
Odds -
BTTS
Yes
Probability 71.2%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 61.1%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
88%
-
BTTS Yes
71.2%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
61.1%
-
Corners O/U Under 11.5 Corners
67.4%
-
HT / FT Home / Home
-
-
Correct Score 2-1
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independiente Medellin Win 88%
Draw 6%
Cucuta Win 6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independiente Medellin1.62
Cucuta1.16
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin
WWDLW
48 GF / 42 GA
Cucuta Cucuta
WLDWL
26 GF / 45 GA
Key Stats
1.45
Average Goals Scored
1.08
1.27
Average Goals Conceded
1.88
23
BTTS Yes
16
19
Over 2.5
11
4.42
Shots on Goal
3.61

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independiente Medellin Independiente Medellin 33 matches
Cucuta Cucuta 24 matches
Independiente Medellin Statistic Cucuta
15 Wins 3
8 Draws 10
10 Losses 11
48 Goals For 26
42 Goals Against 45
1.45 Avg Goals Scored 1.08
1.27 Avg Goals Conceded 1.88
23 BTTS Yes 16
25 Over 1.5 22
19 Over 2.5 11
10 Over 3.5 9
8 Clean Sheets 3
4 Failed To Score 6
4.42 Shots On Goal 3.61
13.55 Total Shots 9.22
5.06 Corners 3.87
50.5% Ball Possession 44.7%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

This match appears to feature a noticeable gap in profile, built around Independiente Medellin's more proactive style and Cucuta's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Both teams appear likely to operate from a similar base structure, so execution within the same shape could be more decisive than formation itself. A relatively balanced game with moderate goal potential looks most likely. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. Independiente Medellin arrive from the stronger league position, sitting 11 with 26 points compared to Cucuta in 19 on 16, which underlines the gap in season consistency. Independiente Medellin come in with stronger recent momentum, which could help them control the rhythm for longer periods. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Cucuta.

Independiente Medellin Analysis

From their first 19 matches, Independiente Medellin have collected 26 points and now occupy 11 place in the table. The record of 7 wins, 5 draws, and 7 defeats, together with a 26:24 goal balance, points toward very strong form and are on a winning streak. Much of their attacking threat comes through John Edwin Montaño (2 goals), Hayen Palacios (1 goals), Jhan Mena (1 goals), with creative support from John Edwin Montaño (1 assists), Hayen Palacios (1 assists), Yony González (1 assists), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, their split return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display balanced attacking football.

Cucuta Analysis

Cucuta sit 19 with 16 points after 19 matches and remain under pressure to produce steadier results. Their record of 3 wins, 7 draws, and 9 losses, together with goals at 22:35, reflects poor form over their recent run. Much of their threat comes through Jaime Peralta (1 goals), Lucas Ríos (1 goals), while the defensive numbers suggest they have been fairly stable. Away from home, they have managed 0 wins, 4 draws, and 6 losses, a return that supports a weak split record. They are under visible pressure near the relegation zone. In football terms they often show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 8 head-to-head meetings, Independiente Medellin won 5 times, Cucuta won 2 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 16:8 from Independiente Medellin's perspective. 6 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 5 matches, with an average of 3 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 1X (94%)
Predicted formations: Independiente Medellin 4-2-3-1 / Cucuta 4-2-3-1
H2H summary: Independiente Medellin wins 5, draws 1, Cucuta wins 2

Standings

Apertura
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 19 13 1 5 35:15 20 40
W W W W L
2 19 11 2 6 31:24 7 35
L D D L D
3 19 10 4 5 29:25 4 34
D L D L L
4 19 10 3 6 25:15 10 33
W D W D W
5 19 8 9 2 31:22 9 33
L L W D D
6 19 8 7 4 27:17 10 31
L W W D W
7 19 7 8 4 29:22 7 29
W D W D D
8 19 7 7 5 26:26 0 28
W D D D D
9 19 7 6 6 20:16 4 27
W D D L D
10 19 7 5 7 31:23 8 26
D D L D W
11 19 7 5 7 26:24 2 26
L W W L W
12 19 7 5 7 20:25 -5 26
L D D D D
13 19 5 8 6 26:20 6 23
W D D W D
14 19 4 10 5 17:20 -3 22
L L L L W
15 19 5 7 7 22:27 -5 22
D D L D L
16 19 5 3 11 20:33 -13 18
D D D W D
17 19 3 8 8 13:27 -14 17
W L L L D
18 19 5 2 12 15:32 -17 17
W W D D L
19 19 3 7 9 22:35 -13 16
D L W W D
20 19 1 7 11 15:32 -17 10
L D L W D
Post season qualification