BRAZIL SERIE D
--.--.---- --:--
Independência
Match Timeline
Araguaína
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
48'
I. Alves de Macedo
Independência

Predictions & Statistics

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Away Win
Probability 62.6%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 78.4%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 75.9%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Away Win
62.6%
-
BTTS BTTS Yes
78.4%
-
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
75.9%
-
Corners O/U Over 7.5 Corners
87.7%
-
HT / FT Draw / Away
-
-
Correct Score 0-2
-
-
Probability Distribution
Independência Win 27.4%
Draw 10%
Araguaína Win 62.6%
Expected Goals (xG)
Independência0.97
Araguaína2.37
Recent Form (Last 5)
Independência Independência
WWDLW
7 GF / 7 GA
Araguaína Araguaína
WLDWL
19 GF / 4 GA
Key Stats
1.17
Average Goals Scored
3.17
1.17
Average Goals Conceded
0.67
4
BTTS Yes
4
3
Over 2.5
4
0
Shots on Goal
0

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Independência Independência 6 matches
Araguaína Araguaína 6 matches
Independência Statistic Araguaína
1 Wins 4
2 Draws 2
3 Losses 0
7 Goals For 19
7 Goals Against 4
1.17 Avg Goals Scored 3.17
1.17 Avg Goals Conceded 0.67
4 BTTS Yes 4
5 Over 1.5 6
3 Over 2.5 4
0 Over 3.5 2
1 Clean Sheets 2
1 Failed To Score 0
0 Shots On Goal 0
0 Total Shots 0
0 Corners 0
0% Ball Possession 0%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

On paper, this fixture places two sides in different competitive situations, shaped by Araguaína's more proactive style and Independência's more cautious structure. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. Overall, the preferred tip is Away Win, while the clean-sheet lean points toward Araguaína. From a tactical point of view, the game still points toward Araguaína having the stronger overall control. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. Araguaína carry the stronger overall league profile, standing 1 with 14 points while Independência sit 5 on 5, suggesting a clearer edge in long-term output.

Independência Analysis

Placed 5 with 5 points from 6 outings, Independência continue to operate from a strong competitive position. The record of 1 wins, 2 draws, and 3 defeats, together with a 7:7 goal balance, points toward poor form over their recent run. Much of their attacking threat comes through Caique Gomes (3 goals), Biel (2 goals), while at the back they have looked very solid. At home, they have returned 1 wins, 1 draws, and 0 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

Araguaína Analysis

Operating from 1 place with 14 points from 6 games, Araguaína bring one of the stronger season profiles into this match. The return of 4 wins, 2 draws, and 0 defeats, together with goals at 19:4, reflects good form over their recent run. Much of their attacking edge comes through Alan Calbergue (4 goals), G. Viana Pinheiro Rodrigues (4 goals), Ailton (2 goals), while their defending has remained very solid. Away from home, they have managed 3 wins, 0 draws, and 0 losses, which underlines a fairly balanced split record. They are competing near the top and remain under pressure to hold that position. In stylistic terms they continue to show balanced attacking football.

H2H Analysis

Across those 2 head-to-head meetings, Independência won 1 times, Araguaína won 0 times, while 1 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 2:1 from Independência's perspective. 0 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 1 matches, with an average of 1.5 goals per game.

1X2: Away Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90%)
H2H summary: Independência wins 1, draws 1, Araguaína wins 0
Last matches: Independência
28.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
1
1
D
21.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
31.05.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
4
0
W
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
09.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
2
L
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
26.04.26
Ser
Independência
Araguaína
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
1
2
L
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
04.04.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
0
1
L
09.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
3
L
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
19.07.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
1
4
L
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
05.07.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
2
1
W
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
15.06.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
3
L
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
Last matches: Araguaína
28.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
0
D
21.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
1
L
14.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
9
0
W
30.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
2
3
L
24.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
1
1
D
10.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
7
0
W
03.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
6
0
W
26.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Independência
1
1
D
19.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
2
1
W
12.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
1
1
D
04.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
2
1
W
H2H: Independência vs Araguaína
17.05.26
H2H
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
26.04.26
H2H
Araguaína
Independência
1
1
D
Last matches: Independência
21.06.26
Ser
Independência
Manauara
0
2
L
14.06.26
Ser
Independência
Guaporé
2
2
D
24.05.26
Ser
Independência
Galvez
3
1
W
02.05.26
Ser
Independência
Porto Velho
1
1
D
12.04.26
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
3
0
W
03.08.25
Ser
Independência
Altos
1
5
L
27.07.25
Ser
Independência
Manauara
2
1
W
12.07.25
Ser
Independência
Humaitá
0
1
L
29.06.25
Ser
Independência
Trem
2
2
D
07.06.25
Ser
Independência
Manaus FC
1
0
W
28.05.25
Ser
Independência
Tuna Luso
0
0
D
10.05.25
Ser
Independência
GAS
4
1
W
27.04.25
Ser
Independência
Águia de Marabá
0
2
L
H2H at home: Independência
17.05.26
H2H
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
W
Last matches: Araguaína
28.06.26
Ser
Araguaína
Nacional AM
0
0
D
30.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Guaporé
2
3
L
10.05.26
Ser
Araguaína
Humaitá
7
0
W
19.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Porto Velho
2
1
W
04.04.26
Ser
Araguaína
Galvez
2
1
W
H2H away: Araguaína
17.05.26
H2H
Independência
Araguaína
1
0
L

Standings

Group 2
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 10 6 4 0 19:9 10 22
D W W D W
2 10 5 3 2 33:9 24 18
W W D D W
3 10 5 3 2 31:9 22 18
W L D L W
4 10 4 3 3 17:10 7 15
D W W W L
5 10 3 1 6 14:31 -17 10
L L L W L
6 10 0 0 10 4:50 -46 0
L L L L L
Promotion - Serie D (Play Offs: 1/32-finals)