FINLAND › VEIKKAUSLIIGA
23.05.2026 14:00
Tammela Stadium
Referee: Joni Hyytia, Finland
Ilves
Match Timeline
Gnistan
HT
0' 15' 30' 45' 60' 75' 90'
⚽
45'
J. Kanga
Ilves
🔄
58'
M. H. Bjurstrom ↔ D. Perez
Gnistan
🔄
58'
S. Eremenko ↔ A. Jouhi
Gnistan
🟨
62'
Saku Ylätupa
Gnistan
🔄
66'
O. Tiitinen ↔ Y. Raap
Ilves
🔄
66'
O. Pettersson ↔ G. Bamba
Ilves
🔄
66'
Marcelo Costa ↔ V. Hanninen
Gnistan
🔄
67'
J. Kanga ↔ J. Kilo
Ilves
🟥
70'
Abdoul Goudouss Bamba
Ilves
🟨
74'
Saku Ylätupa
Gnistan
🟥
74'
Saku Ylätupa
Gnistan
🔄
78'
M. Stjopin ↔ S. Baranov
Ilves
🟨
79'
Kalle Wallius
Ilves
🔄
81'
A. Obileye ↔ A. Atarah
Gnistan
🟨
83'
Adam Jouhi
Gnistan
🟨
86'
Tatu Miettunen
Ilves
🟨
90+2'
Teemu Hytönen
Ilves
⚽
90'
T. Hytonen · Assist: Y. Raap
Ilves

Ilves vs Gnistan Prediction & Match Analysis

Full analysis and predictions for all markets

1X2
Home Win
Probability 65.8%
Odds -
BTTS
BTTS Yes
Probability 82.6%
Odds -
Over / Under 2.5
Over 2.5
Probability 69.6%
Odds -
All Markets
Market Option Probability Odds Stats & Analysis
1X2 Home Win
65.8%
- ▥
BTTS BTTS Yes
82.6%
- ▥
Over / Under 2.5 Over 2.5
69.6%
- ▥
Corners O/U Under 10.5 Corners
92%
- ▥
HT / FT Home / Home
-
- ▥
Correct Score 2-1
-
- ▥
Probability Distribution
Ilves Win 65.8%
Draw 9.7%
Gnistan Win 24.5%
Expected Goals (xG)
Ilves1.85
Gnistan1.29
Recent Form (Last 5)
Ilves Ilves
WWDLW
24 GF / 18 GA
Gnistan Gnistan
WLDWL
15 GF / 21 GA
Key Stats
2
Average Goals Scored
1.15
1.5
Average Goals Conceded
1.62
8
BTTS Yes
6
7
Over 2.5
6
2.13
Shots on Goal
3.14

Statistics are based on season averages

Season Statistics

Team averages and season trends before this fixture

Ilves Ilves 12 matches
Gnistan Gnistan 13 matches
Ilves Statistic Gnistan
4 Wins 3
3 Draws 3
5 Losses 7
24 Goals For 15
18 Goals Against 21
2 Avg Goals Scored 1.15
1.5 Avg Goals Conceded 1.62
8 BTTS Yes 6
9 Over 1.5 11
7 Over 2.5 6
6 Over 3.5 3
3 Clean Sheets 3
1 Failed To Score 4
2.13 Shots On Goal 3.14
5.88 Total Shots 9
2 Corners 3.71
22.1% Ball Possession 42.3%

Match Analysis

Model notes, team context and key prediction signals

Final Verdict

From a tactical perspective, this fixture features two sides with a fairly similar football identity. Squad availability does not appear severe enough to completely reshape the expected balance, although smaller absences can still influence specific duels. The shape dynamic also adds another layer here, with Ilves expected to line up in 3-4-2-1 and Gnistan in 5-3-2, which may reinforce the expected flow toward Gnistan having the stronger overall control. Across the main signals in this matchup, Away Win remains the stronger lean, and the clean-sheet angle slightly favors Gnistan. The broader competitive context suggests that patience and control may be just as important as raw attacking intent. The season profile of both teams suggests a matchup where long-term consistency matters, but does not fully remove the possibility of swings in momentum on the day. Recent form does not point to a completely one-sided rhythm, which increases the chance of a more tactical and phase-based contest. The defensive profile of this fixture suggests that clear openings may be harder to create.This profiles as a tighter contest, with fewer clear openings expected.

Ilves Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Ilves have collected 6 points and now occupy 9 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 1 wins, 3 draws, and 3 losses, while the 10:13 goal ratio supports the view of poor form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on M. Stjopin (3 goals), T. Hytonen (3 goals), Jardell Kanga (1 goals), with creative support from J. Kilo (3 assists), T. Hytonen (1 assists), O. Pettersson (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. At home, their split return of 1 wins, 0 draws, and 1 losses fits a fairly balanced split record. They are operating from a relatively stable mid-table position. Stylistically, they usually display a more cautious and defensive approach.

Gnistan Analysis

From their first 7 matches, Gnistan have collected 8 points and now occupy 7 place in the table. Across the campaign, they have posted 2 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses, while the 10:11 goal ratio supports the view of mixed form over their recent run. Going forward they rely heavily on Adeleke Akinola Akinyemi (5 goals), Joakim Latonen (2 goals), R. Gnanou (1 goals), with creative support from Joakim Latonen (2 assists), Edmund Arko-Mensah (2 assists), A. Craninx (1 assists), and defensively they have been very solid. Away from home, they have returned 0 wins, 2 draws, and 1 losses, a split that suggests a balanced but draw-heavy split record. They are pushing for upper-table objectives and still have something important to play for. In football terms, they tend to show a more cautious and defensive approach.

H2H Analysis

Across those 11 head-to-head meetings, Ilves won 6 times, Gnistan won 3 times, while 2 matches finished as draws. The aggregate score in this matchup is 24:18 from Ilves's perspective. 7 of those games went over 2.5 goals, and both teams scored in 6 matches, with an average of 3.82 goals per game.

1X2: Home Win
BTTS: BTTS Yes
Over/Under 2.5: Over 2.5
Highest model probability: 12 (90.3%)
Predicted formations: Ilves 3-4-2-1 / Gnistan 5-3-2
H2H summary: Ilves wins 6, draws 2, Gnistan wins 3

Standings

Veikkausliiga
# Team MP W D L G GD PTS Form
1 22 12 7 3 38:23 15 43
W D D L L
2 22 11 9 2 29:16 13 42
W W L W D
3 22 11 4 7 36:27 9 37
D D W W L
4 22 10 6 6 36:29 7 36
D W D D W
5 22 10 4 8 25:25 0 34
L L L D W
6 22 9 6 7 29:22 7 33
L L W L W
7 22 9 5 8 26:19 7 32
D L W W W
8 22 8 7 7 28:23 5 31
L L D D D
9
Ilves Home
22 7 4 11 34:37 -3 25
W W W L L
10 22 4 7 11 25:33 -8 19
W D D D L
11 22 3 6 13 18:44 -26 15
D D L L L
12 22 3 5 14 17:43 -26 14
L W L W W
Play-offs
Relegation Play-offs